50-100 river...
 

Villian is Alwayswynn, a reg. We have played a bit, i don't really know what he thinks of me. I prolly have a decent overall taggish image.

I raise A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the CO 6 handed, he 3 bets from the SB, i cap, we take the flop HU. Flop is T9x rainbow. He checks calls. Turn is another complete dude, he check calls. River is a Q and he donks...

Re: 50-100 river...
 

Raise fold.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

most likely holdings AQ KQ KJ QJ, I think weighted towards KJ since he would play KJ exactly this way, whereas the others it's likely he would have played it differntly at some point.

e.g. lots of players won't call turn w/ AQ, only check call flop with QJ, or donk KQ on the river. However lots of players will play KJ exactly the way he played.

I'd just call.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise fold.

[/ QUOTE ] and i dont think its close unless you know he i donk/folding a q

Re: 50-100 river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 50-100 river...
 

I did raise and gold. I hate doing it. I am druink and dont lkike folding AA on the river. but it was prolly ok yto od

Re: 50-100 river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I did raise and gold. I hate doing it. I am druink and dont lkike folding AA on the river. but it was prolly ok yto od

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, I love when people post strat when they are drunk.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

i love the raise and gold, my favorite move

Re: 50-100 river...
 

I meant raise gold initially, typo. Sorry Gabe.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

yeah if there is ever a spot where you can raise/fold the river and still sleep well this is it. wp.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

i think raising here is bad

lots of combos of straights
possible that he doesnt pay off a raise
even if folding to the raise is right theres still value in avoiding the 3bet bc ur never literally 0.00% good

Re: 50-100 river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think raising here is bad

lots of combos of straights
possible that he doesnt pay off a raise
even if folding to the raise is right theres still value in avoiding the 3bet bc ur never literally 0.00% good

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are literally 100% never good why would you mind a 3 bet?

Re: 50-100 river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think raising here is bad

lots of combos of straights
possible that he doesnt pay off a raise
even if folding to the raise is right theres still value in avoiding the 3bet bc ur never literally 0.00% good

[/ QUOTE ]

what other straights are there besides J8 - which he is not 3betting preflop, and even if he did he would likely throw in a semibluff cr somewhere to try to push ace high hands out by the river on this ragged board.

i was going to post something similar i.e. he is trying to 3bet here so often that raising doesn't really have much value but actually what does he play this way that would bet/3bet beside KJ? that one hand is outwieghed significantly by all the hands that just made top pair.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think raising here is bad

lots of combos of straights
possible that he doesnt pay off a raise
even if folding to the raise is right theres still value in avoiding the 3bet bc ur never literally 0.00% good

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are literally 100% never good why would you mind a 3 bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
i meant that u always have more than 0.00% equity vs a 3bet

if ur good 0.05% theres value in avoiding a raise

Re: 50-100 river...
 

If you were playing me my most likely holding would be KJ here. I would have to think a lot of other players too.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
that one hand is outwieghed significantly by all the hands that just made top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

not really dude. just plug it into pokerstove and do some realistic weighting of hands (qj has to be severely weighted against bc it folds pf a lot and plays aggressively posflop a lot). also consider the other two points in my first post

Re: 50-100 river...
 

so you're checkraising KQ/QJ/AQ?

i would be bet/calling those hands.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

probably not, i'm not sure where u got that idea from my post?

Re: 50-100 river...
 

[ QUOTE ]
probably not, i'm not sure where u got that idea from my post?

[/ QUOTE ]

i was replying to geormit.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

oh

Re: 50-100 river...
 

AQ i usually wouldn't have gotten to the river against ggbman, KQ i think might actually just check call (you're right i could be bet calling there though) and QJ i'd probably have made a play at the hand on the flop or turn.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

there are 18 combos* of KQ/AQ and 16 of KJ.

so 53% of the time we get an extra bet and a 47% of the time we lose an extra bet.

BUT he could fold to the raise...and we sometimes call the 3bet. in a situation where your equity is very slim (here, 53%) these 2 factors are actually pretty huge - especially since he should probably fold KQ to a raise alot of the time.

so this actually does swing it into a call i think.

*I didn't discount AQ because i personally would make it to the river here with AQ in a steal/defense situation and also because i completely took QJ out of his range to compensate a little.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

I dont understand why everyone wants to assume he will make a move with QJ so often. Given Hero's cap preflop, it seems reasonable that Villian wants to draw cheap and gives himself very little fold equity...

Re: 50-100 river...
 

I think we should assume that a fair amount of the time he will make a move with QJ, and factor it into his range caclulation at the river.

Wouldn't you agree that players will play QJ agro on this board vs. a capper some of the time? I think it's correct to do so persnally.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

I think in these games, people play QJ aggressivley postflop in top keep me from capping light, make me call down lighter, etc... it has reasonable equity vs. my cap range and if he can get a scare to fall and bet me off the best hand it has tons of value obv.

I feel like i get paid off by KQ+ when i raise the river just about always here. I also feel like whenever i raise here, i get 3 bet, and think that i should be calling more. However i know intuitivley and from looking through some hands that it's just selective memory really. I think KQ, KJ, and AQ could all be played exactly like this postflop against me in this situation. I guess i would just have to look at combos of AQ, KQ vs. JK, cuz i feel like it's one of these three hands like 98% of the time.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

You really think that AQ is equally likely as KQ and KJ? I think it's actually really unlikely - the fact that you are holding 2 aces already, plus the fact that he folds the turn a good portion of the time.

I feel like it's heavily weighted towards KQ and KJ.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

Well no, i mean obviously there are less combos of it for starters since i Hvae two aces. And KQ, KJ should have better equity on the turn after my bet most of the time... but I was saying that WHEN he has AQ, i can him peeling the turn here a decent amount, or at least i feel like i see people who play similarly to him do it a majority of the time.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

its true most people will peel w/ AQ when I think about it.

off topic - what do people like to do on the turn here with AQ?

Re: 50-100 river...
 

"I guess i would just have to look at combos of AQ, KQ vs. JK, cuz i feel like it's one of these three hands like 98% of the time. "

i already did this.

Re: 50-100 river...
 

Yeah, i just saw that. Makes me want to call.

Geo- With AQ on the turn here i like to puke in villians shoes, because i usually do not feel like there is a good option available.