Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

I know nothing about sports betting. Should I take a straight up bet that the Patriots will win the superbowl.

The bet is the patriots win the superbowl yes/no pick a side and you get even money on either choice. Is there any value in this bet?

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

I don't think there's any real value in it other than I don't think they're actually 50% to win it all. The market's set that price on them though, so WTFDIK?

- C -

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

If they are 80% to win each of the 3 post season games, that's 51.2% to win the SB. Assuing they will have to beat Indy again, that game is say 60% Pats win at home. .6*.9*.9=.486 Do you think the Pats win 90% against whatever other teams they have to play?

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

They beat Indi by 4 in Indi. Theoretically they're gonna have them in NE. They'll probably be a TD fav or more. No way they're gonna be 60% to beat Indi...

- C -

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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They beat Indi by 4 in Indi. Theoretically they're gonna have them in NE. They'll probably be a TD fav or more. No way they're gonna be 60% to beat Indi...

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What do you think it is then? I wouldn't go strictly by the lines this past week because I think it's pretty obvious the books were charging a tax on betting the Pats.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

NE vs the field? (Week 10 now)

I take the field at +100

What will happen if Brady takes a shot and is done for the year?

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

Yeah Pats to beat Indy in the playoffs is more like 70-75%, unless somehow Indy gains homefield, which I don't see happening.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

Pats are worth around -110 to win the Superbowl. Take it.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

The Pats are 40% bet to win SB tops! so even money would be a bad bet!

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

I say take the Pats, take the Colts in the championship and whoever the NFC champ is in the superbowl, hope at least one of the two cover, and super profit.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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Yeah Pats to beat Indy in the playoffs is more like 70-75%, unless somehow Indy gains homefield, which I don't see happening.

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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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The Pats are 40% bet to win SB tops! so even money would be a bad bet!

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Pats are +150 to win the Superbowl? Tops?

Give me +125, I'll take it for 50 grand.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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I know nothing about sports betting. Should I take a straight up bet that the Patriots will win the superbowl.

The bet is the patriots win the superbowl yes/no pick a side and you get even money on either choice. Is there any value in this bet?

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if both bets are at +100 then one bet has to be +EV...

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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If they are 80% to win each of the 3 post season games, that's 51.2% to win the SB. Assuing they will have to beat Indy again, that game is say 60% Pats win at home. .6*.9*.9=.486 Do you think the Pats win 90% against whatever other teams they have to play?

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lol the line had NE to win 66% AT indy.. so i think the adjusted line will conpensate for it being at NE now and NE chance will still be > 66%.. probably like 75%

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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I know nothing about sports betting. Should I take a straight up bet that the Patriots will win the superbowl.

The bet is the patriots win the superbowl yes/no pick a side and you get even money on either choice. Is there any value in this bet?

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if both bets are at +100 then one bet has to be +EV...

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But is there enough value there to wrap up my money for so long.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

The Patriots are - mathematically speaking in the here and now - a -108 favorite to win the Superbowl.

Therefore, no there is not enough value to wrap up your money for that long.

I thought you were brand new to sports betting? The way you phrased it made it sound like you were making a bet with your friend. If you're a Pats fan and your friend is giving you +100 and you want to make a bet, take it. If you're worried about "value" and things like that, then just pass.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

Stats sat 32.5% to win SB so it's a tuff bet at even up. Football Outsides who are freaklishly good at this stuff have

Pats 32.5%
Dallas 22.9
Indy 19.4
GB 6.5
Pitts 5.7

Also Pats have a 22.8% chance to go 16-0

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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Also Pats have a 22.8% chance to go 16-0

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If you believe that to be true, you should hammer the "No team goes 16-0" on WSEX for -150.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

If the previous NE/Indy line is any indication, New England will be 85% to win at home vs Indy.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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If the previous NE/Indy line is any indication, New England will be 85% to win at home vs Indy.

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The line was heavily in favor of the Pats. A tax I think people on here were calling it. The true line probably should have been Pats -1 or so, even possibly having the Colts favored.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

The REAL line was Colts -1/2 Thats why I put a ton on the Colts! WHEW!!!!

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

where can you find the REAL line?

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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The line was heavily in favor of the Pats. A tax I think people on here were calling it. The true line probably should have been Pats -1 or so, even possibly having the Colts favored.

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If you believe this to be true, OP should take the NE superbowl bet at +100, then bet their playoff opponents on the Moneyline.

I happen to think NEP -4.5 was a very fair line.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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where can you find the REAL line?

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subscribe to the LVSC or put in a phone call to Billy Walters

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

the London Voluntary Service Council?

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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The line was heavily in favor of the Pats. A tax I think people on here were calling it. The true line probably should have been Pats -1 or so, even possibly having the Colts favored.

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If you believe this to be true, OP should take the NE superbowl bet at +100, then bet their playoff opponents on the Moneyline.

I happen to think NEP -4.5 was a very fair line.

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Didn't the line close at -5.5?

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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If the previous NE/Indy line is any indication, New England will be 85% to win at home vs Indy.

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The line was heavily in favor of the Pats. A tax I think people on here were calling it. The true line probably should have been Pats -1 or so, even possibly having the Colts favored.

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if you are doing this by DVOA, then Aaron S. disagreed. he thought the Pats were gonna win by 38-30, and Mike Tanier picked Pats 34-24.

Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
 

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The line was heavily in favor of the Pats. A tax I think people on here were calling it. The true line probably should have been Pats -1 or so, even possibly having the Colts favored.

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If you believe this to be true, OP should take the NE superbowl bet at +100, then bet their playoff opponents on the Moneyline.

I happen to think NEP -4.5 was a very fair line.

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Didn't the line close at -5.5?

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Opened 3.5, high of 6, closed 4.5

Bookies on Colts; public on Pats