Tough decision at the bubble
 

Hi !
I played a sng 5$ on UB yesterday and I have been knock out 4th with AKs :

So we are yet 4 at the table, blinds are 75/150.
OTB : 2500
SB : 2500
BB : 5000
I : 5000

I am UTG and I held A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I raise 3BB or 450.
All fold exept BB who calls. BB seems a tight player.

Flop : 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (Pot : 975)

BB check, I bet 600
<font color="red">BB raises 1200.</font> Pot is now 2775.

What should I do ?
Yesterday I shoved all my chips and have been eliminated against pocket sevens which caught set.
I know that my all in was not good play because I'm called only by a set.

What is a right play ?
On one hand, I have top pair, top kicker and I can't think I'm beaten every time I'm raised.
On the other hand, I'm against the big stack who covers me, we are near the payed places, and BB is a solid, conservative player.

Thanks for your answers or opinions.

P.S. My english is perhaps poor, sorry, I'm learning !

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

R U SRS?

Pushing is the very right play. You are going to be called by K weaker kicker all day long here. Sick cooler btw.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

Push pre flop and push on the flop, then push on the turn AND the river LOL

You NEVER want to see the flop with AK and if you do you want that pot as big as possible.

I will either limp in cheap and hope to hit or push everything out there.

Remember 22 will beat AK more often then not! Even against a random hand you will win only 67% of the time.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

I highly doubt pushing AKs for &gt; 30bb is anywhere near the best way to play the hand in this situation.
We don't want to risk bubbling, simple as that.
And to have the pot as big as possible? Wtf?

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

Push pre is best i think. Standard raise gives the BB the opportunity to resteal w/ a huge range.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
Push pre is best i think. Standard raise gives the BB the opportunity to resteal w/ a huge range.

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Will people resteal that often in a $5?
Also, I haven't done any calcs or so, but if we open fairly tight, I think you are overestimating how wide bb can resteal profitably.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

Pushing pre is overkill.

You played it well, OP. Obviously push over his raise. He can have many things, a set is only a tiny part of his range.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

So far you have played the hand fine. Pushing pre flop is just plain dumb advice. 3XBB is pretty standard and as 1st to act shows you do have a hand to be respected unless you are a LAG and known to be one.

BB has decided to call and you have now been C/R. As you are both the big stacks give him some respect here. He either has you dominated or thinks you are on a bluff and is testing your resolve. At this stage you must have some reads on the villain and this would influence my decision on whether to fold or push.

Thinking of the range the villain may be on I think a shove now is correct.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
BB has decided to call and you have now been C/R. As you are both the big stacks give him some respect here. He either has you dominated or thinks you are on a bluff and is testing your resolve.

[/ QUOTE ]

Giving pretty massive credit for 5s players? You exclude possibility that he has K5 and thinks its the nuts. Not to mention that he might be bluffing here or having gutshot or naked FD or whatever.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB has decided to call and you have now been C/R. As you are both the big stacks give him some respect here. He either has you dominated or thinks you are on a bluff and is testing your resolve.

[/ QUOTE ]

Giving pretty massive credit for 5s players? You exclude possibility that he has K5 and thinks its the nuts. Not to mention that he might be bluffing here or having gutshot or naked FD or whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am giving him credit yes. Just because it is $5 doesn't mean he is a donk. Anyway, I did say it was dependent on reads on the villain and by this stage of the tourney if you don't know how he is playing I suggest you need to pay more attention.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

It's likely he's a donk. Our villain distribution is a donk.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

After your pre-flop raise, your flop bet on K 7 8 says that you have AK

Your tight opponent is comfortably chip leader faced with a situtaion that might cripple his stack if he gets involved in anything funny. His raise is telling you that your AK is beaten. Believe him.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
After your pre-flop raise, your flop bet on K 7 8 says that you have just about anything


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Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

OK When I read you, either I push all in preflop in order to see the five cards either I play the hand like I played. Furthmore, when I shoved all my chips on the flop wasn't a mistake because Villain can have a lot of things I can beat.
But if I push preflop and I m called by any pocket pair, I'm an underdog.
The minimum raise of Villain on the flop was suspicious for me but you don't seem be afraid of that.
Anyway, Thanks and see you soon

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

I agree with AA, I thought like him. But it's true too that a C-Bet doesn't show much strenght and Villain could have me raised for test. But why so few ?

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After your pre-flop raise, your flop bet on K 7 8 hero is saying that he has AK


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if villian thinks that hero's bet means that he has just about anything, then hero must have given him good reason to think that, like c-betting at every flop. Otherwise, I repeat, I see no reason why this tight chip leader is taking a risk to cripple his stack.

Re: Tough decision at the bubble
 

Here is my final thought

That's true that a C-Bet doesn't mean anything. But however from his point of view, it's likely that I have AK. I bet, but he raises, just a very little raise. He wants to be called because I don't believe Villain is thinking at the 2nd degree. Furthemore, even if I fold right now, I have left 4000 chips and my probabilities to be payed are more than 80% (with the calculus in the harrington book V2). If I have a good read of my opponent, he has set in at least 50% of all cases.
I think I have to call, but fold at the turn and wait a better opportunities.