*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

CIN @ BAL
CHI @ OAK
DET @ ARI
DAL @ NYG

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I will be on Dallas due mainly to the Giants being terribly overrated

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Detroit underdog vs Arizona?

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Detroit underdog vs Arizona?

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i checked and no major injuries on detroit yesterday, Warner had a bad game and doesnt look like his old self, and detroits defense is improving, doesnt make any sense to me at all..... cant wait to see what moneyline is gonna be when it comes out(its not out atBETUS yet)

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I know Detroit is a Jekyll and Hyde team when it comes to being on the road, but how can they be an underdog in this game?

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Detroit's only had two poor road showings. Since their bye week their defense has looked dramatically improved. Not sure what it is, but it's almost been as big a turn-around as the New Orleans offense. I expect them to be a lot better than most people think, and Warner's hurting and playing poorly with injuries and we all know Rattay isn't the answer.

I'm on Det +1 already and may add to that later.

- C -

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Given the start of this thread, I am pretty sure that I am taking Zona this week. This one screams BSP.

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Like all the road favs LOL

Bears, Lions, Cowboys WIN

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Detroit has already moved a point to Pick.

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I like the Cowboys -1 here. DVOA has Cowboys -2, and MOV has Cowboys -6. I also expect the Giants to start off very slow, given their last 4 opponents have been the Jets/Dolphins/Falcons/49ers, and they are coming off a week in which they played in London.

I like the Raiders +3. Someone remind me why a crappy team is getting 3 points at home against a similarly crappy team? Anyone?

Staying away from Det/Ari. Before the Week 9 update, DVOA had Arizona > Detroit. I expect that to change, but Arizona is still better than their record, and while I'm happy for Detroit and their fans, I don't think Detroit is as good as theirs. If I had to pick, I'd probably pick ARI +1.

Haven't seen a line for CIN/BAL yet.

Let me know what you think.

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CIN @ BAL -4.5 is the opening line on WSEX.

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CIN @ BAL -4.5 is the opening line on WSEX.

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Srsly?

Wow, I would slam Cinci here. I think Cinci is the better team straight up.

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Detroit has already moved a point to Pick.

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umm its all they way Detroit +1.5 for me.

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CIN @ BAL -4.5 is the opening line on WSEX.

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Srsly?

Wow, I would slam Cinci here. I think Cinci is the better team straight up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget how dreadfully awful Cinci is. I make this spread to be Ravens -3 or -3.5...not big enough for me to bet on here, given that I don't like betting Ravens games.

- C -

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Detroit has already moved a point to Pick.

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Maybe on super-square books like Bodog. Pinny leaning toward Zona, begging for Det money (+1, +102).

This has all the potential of being a huge public play after the blowout for Detroit. It'll be interesting to see if there's sharp resistance around -1 or if it collapses later in the week.

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Wow, I would slam Cinci here. I think Cinci is the better team straight up.

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This game closed CIN -3 earlier in the year right? And the game basically played to that number (Cincy won by 7, but Balt could've forced overtime if Billick wasn't retarded).

I'm confused why we switch homefields and have a 7.5 point swing here. Neither team has changed much or shown much that deviates from that early season line. Both teams are about equally worse than we thought they were at the beginning of the year. Balt's better record doesn't dissuade me from taking Cin +4.5 for 1.5u.

That being said, there's no way Cincy is better SU in Balt.

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That being said, there's no way Cincy is better SU in Balt.

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I didn't mean in Baltimore. I just meant SU on a neutral field. I think the line should be closer to Balt -1 or -2.

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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CIN @ BAL -4.5 is the opening line on WSEX.

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Srsly?

Wow, I would slam Cinci here. I think Cinci is the better team straight up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You forget how dreadfully awful Cinci is. I make this spread to be Ravens -3 or -3.5...not big enough for me to bet on here, given that I don't like betting Ravens games.



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Cinci isn't dreadfully awful.

Cinci's six losses.

51-45 @ Cleveland (Cleveland decent team)
24-21 @ Seattle (Seattle decent team)
34-13 v New England (Enough said)
27-20 @ Kansas City (Arrowhead tough place to play)
27-13 v. Steelers (Pitt v. good team)
33-21 @ Buffalo (Buffalo is ok. Game was closer than score looks.)

Meanwhile, Baltimore has beaten nothing but the drecks. Cincinatti may not be good, but dreadfully awful is reserved for teams like the Ravens.

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I didn't mean in Baltimore. I just meant SU on a neutral field. I think the line should be closer to Balt -1 or -2.


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I make them even on a neutral field... so +4.5 is a great bet IMO.

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I will be on Dallas due mainly to the Giants being terribly overrated

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QFT
they have had many weak opponents (jets, fins, 49ers, atl)

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[ QUOTE ]
I didn't mean in Baltimore. I just meant SU on a neutral field. I think the line should be closer to Balt -1 or -2.


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I make them even on a neutral field... so +4.5 is a great bet IMO.

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I still think it's even better than that. DVOA has the Bengals about .5 to 1 point better than the Ravens. MOV has the Bengals at about 2 points better. They've played 4 common teams, and the Bengals have played better against those teams on average, not to mention the victory the Bengals had over the Ravens in Cinci.

But at least we agree +4.5 is a great line for us. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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OK, someone talk to me.

According to wagerline.com, 80% of the money is on the Bears at -3, which has moved to -3.5 at some sites.

The Bears should not be getting favored on the road against almost anybody save for maybe the 49ers. When did people start deciding that this Bears team was good?

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I have decided to put 3u on Arizona at home simply because: "They have lost three in a row, and Detroit has won 3 in a row...the line opens as a pick'em, 80% on Detroit...and the line goes to Zona -1 right away, and then stays steady, even with all the Lions money."

Just a complete and total public fade.

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[ QUOTE ]
I have decided to put 3u on Arizona at home simply because: "They have lost three in a row, and Detroit has won 3 in a row...the line opens as a pick'em, 80% on Detroit...and the line goes to Zona -1 right away, and then stays steady, even with all the Lions money."

Just a complete and total public fade.

[/ QUOTE ]

I still see it as a pick 'em on sportsinteraction. I, too, like the Cardinals here. DVOA has the Lions as being about a half point favorite on a neutral field. The public is enamored with the overperforming Lions, and the books know this.

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When did people start deciding that this Bears team was good?

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They are not. Cincy +4.5, SF +10 and Mia ML are my top plays this week. Oak +3, Ariz -1, and Clev +10 are my smaller plays.

The only thing that worries me about Oakland is that there's been no market resistance whatsoever. I haven't actually bought Oak yet because of that. It makes me think that this isn't quite as strong of a play as I thought, so I'll wait and see what happens.

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The only thing that worries me about Oakland is that there's been no market resistance whatsoever. I haven't actually bought Oak yet because of that. It makes me think that this isn't quite as strong of a play as I thought, so I'll wait and see what happens.

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I'm an amateur at this and am going solely by numbers, so I don't understand the strategy here. Are you saying because the line moved a half point almost immediately that the books aren't trying to cajole people into betting the Bears?

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Late afternoon plays:

Raiders +3.5 (-105)
Risk 2u to win 1.90u

Ok, so let me get this straight. The Bears are a slightly better team than the Raiders. Maybe 1 to 1.5 points. So the line looks off by about 4 points. Also, the line moves so I can get the 3, the vig is only 5%, AND 80% of the public is on the Bears? Where do I sign?

By the way, I fully expect to lose this bet despite KNOWING I'm on the right side because the game is sure to be fixed.

20-17 Raiders

Cardinals PK (-110)
Risk 2u to win 1.90u

Fade the public (clap clap clapclapclap). Lions are slightly better than the Cardinals on a neutral field. Time to come back to Earth.

27-20 Cardinals

Cowboys -2 (-115)
Risk 1u to win .87u

The Giants last 4 opponents. Jets, Falcons, 49ers, Dolphins. Well that was nice. Did you have fun in England, boys? Giants start off slow, and the game is never really close. Anyways, wasn't it about this time of the year that NY tanked last season?

35-24 Cowboys

YTD: 0-0-0
+0u

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DET Pick

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wasn't it about this time of the year that NY tanked last season?


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don't you mean, wasn't it the time of the year where half their offense and defense got injured all at once causing them to lose games they were favored to win?

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[ QUOTE ]
wasn't it about this time of the year that NY tanked last season?


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don't you mean, wasn't it the time of the year where half their offense and defense got injured all at once causing them to lose games they were favored to win?

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Actually, I meant, "I'm going to make a joke here that will be completely and totally irrelevant to the question at hand."

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lions line reminds me of last year when oakland who was horrible opened as -1 favorite against rams (who were average last year) and stayed there

and eveyrone was like how and bet oakland thinking it was a trap

then oakland lost 20-0

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[ QUOTE ]
lions line reminds me of last year when oakland who was horrible opened as -1 favorite against rams (who were average last year) and stayed there

and eveyrone was like how and bet oakland thinking it was a trap

then oakland lost 20-0

[/ QUOTE ]

Except Detroit and Arizona are pretty similar.

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I can't see how Detroit loses this game. I was shocked they weren't favored. Their defense will keep them in this one with multiple turnovers. Also, I think Detroit has a ton of offensive weapons that a lot of people don't think about. I am going with Detroit ML.

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What do you think of this teaser: NYG +7.5 and over 43?

thanks much.

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What do you think of this teaser: NYG +7.5 and over 43?

thanks much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it much, as I feel the true line for the game should be closer to -3.5/4

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I'm on DAL and OAK for a unit each

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Everyone seems agree that detroit it about a half point/point favorite to Zona, yet people are taking AZ when Lions are as high as 1.5 dog at some books, doesnt make any sense. Anyway here are my picks for this week.....

Lions +1.5 -110
Indy- 3.5 +110 (THATS RIGHT!!)
Dallas -1 -110

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Everyone seems agree that detroit it about a half point/point favorite to Zona, yet people are taking AZ when Lions are as high as 1.5 dog at some books, doesnt make any sense.

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I think Detroit is .5-1 point favorite on a neutral field. But the game's in Arizona.

I'm thinking about betting the over in this game as well. Both teams can pass. Neither team can run (though Detroit has done better as of late). Both teams can defend the run, but neither team can defend the pass. This game should be an air show.

Thoughts?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
 

Went ahead and add 1u on Det/Ari Over 45.0

Both Detroit and Arizona are:

1) Scoring more than their opponents are giving up in their other games

2) Giving up more than their opponents are scoring in their other games.

Arizona's last three totals have been 35/40/27, but that was WITH Rattay against a low scoring Carolina squad, against Washington who is all D, no O, and against Tampa, who despite having an efficient offense, doesn't put up many points, as well as having a good defense. Interestingly enough, Arizona's 3 highest totals of the year came in games they won, for whatever that's worth.

Detroit's last 4 totals have been 37/39/23/51, but once again, the first three were against Washington and Tampa (recognize a trend?), and a fluky low-scoring game against Chicago, (against who they had a total of 74 earlier in the year).

The line reflects a slightly above-average scoring game. But we have two averagish offenses who love to pass against below averagish defenses who can't stop the pass. I expect the total to be somewhere in the low-mid 50s.

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Line STILL moving toward Arizona (-1 -113 now on Pinny) despite huge Lions public bias.