50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

I strongly believe that pushing AK preflop is a profitable play at these stakes for one solid reason. There are not enough thinking, adjusting opponents at this level. Because of this, the range of hands that call a preflop push for 100 bets is wider than most would have you believe.

Heres the breakdown as I see it:
90% of the time the push goes uncontested
10% of the time, I get a call:
-1% of that is AA/KK
-5% is pocket pairs
-4% is two faces (Ax,KQ,JK,..)

Anyone casually watching the table will take notice of when a full buy-in gets shoved into the middle. The natural reaction seems to be "What a donkey". This allows me to extract more postflop.

If my AK gets showed down there is another benefit. I feel like I can freely open push with AA and KK with the same calling range.

Take a minute to think about that. I'm look forward to any thoughts!

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

yea, i think you are right, this is slightly +EV

I think this would work at nl100 also

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

LOL

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

I think they should make 26 person tables for people like this.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

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LOL

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You must have reasoning. Whats your basis for disagreeing? You have math to back up the laugh?

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

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I think they should make 26 person tables for people like this.

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Then I might reconsider...

25 people left to act if I push UTG...thats 12.5%? I can see how that'd work against me.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

Go play a donkament or something.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

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Go play a donkament or something.

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*chuckle*

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

is this a serious post?

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

Yes yes yes, trying to make it as serious as possible in order to get solid answers. I definitely didn't go into this without expecting empty responses, so I will try to continue to keep making reasonable posts.

Since the numbers I've crunched up seem to put me in +EV territory, I started some testing.

Its a small sample size, but I dont expect the BB/100 to change by much continuing this.

Here is my before:
http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/8...eakpushlw1.jpg

Here is my after:
http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/2...rakpushdn0.jpg

So, please...let me hear some thoughts on this. Do you think its -----EV, +++++EV, +Ev, -EV, 0EV.

It would help if I saw some other's AK stats too (with hopefully a bigger sample size).

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

dont push donk

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

fullstacking (which is implied since nothing else has been suggested thus far), this is hyper hyper -EV. like, insanely -EV. only things that call u are AK/QQ+, and QQ isnt always a go, same with AK. so really ur move isolates only AA/KK to snap u off

ur estimates in the OP about gettin called are very optimistic. ur risking $50 to make $.75, and when u get ur money in ur generally gonna have 18%-38% equity (ranges KK+ --> QQ+/AK). even a basic look at those numbers says its -EV.

doin this from a shortstacking angle is different (risking $10 to make $.75 is a HUUUUUUUUUUUGE difference)...but im sure thats obvious...tho maybe not

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

Honestly, if they call his open shoves as light as he says they do (KQ, Ax), then this isn't a bad play. Obv, it's massively exploitable and silly, but if his opps are too stupid to capitalize on this and continue to donate to open-shoves, I say keep doing it.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

Let's assume it is +EV; is it even close to optimal? I'd so most likely not.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

There this thing called shortstacking. Its what people that dont like to play post flop do. Try it

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

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Let's assume it is +EV; is it even close to optimal? I'd say most likely not.

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QFT. Incidentally, you (OP) say that you go uncontested 90% of the time, but your AK winrate is below 90%... I'm guessing you don't push it when there's already a raise or something? Why is your WtSD so much less than 100%?

I do believe your AK winrates are going to change significantly from where they're at in your small sample (notice in your before, an only slightly smaller sample, AKs only wins 60% as much as AKo per hand). My winrates for individual hands are still moving significantly in my database with hundreds of thousands of hands, and I don't have a hyper-variance AK game plan.

Bear in mind that when you get called by any Ax or Kx hand it's probably from a shorter stack, most of the big stacks have QQ+.

Your percentages in the OP about how often you run into each scenario are flat out wrong. You've only done this a couple hundred times and don't have nearly enough data to claim you're against AA/KK 1% of the time in general. Even if you're playing heads up and you have AK, your opponent has AA/KK exactly 6 times in 1225 (about .49% of the time), even just pushing into 3 random hands you run into AA/KK more than 1% of the time.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

-A single player is almost 1% to be dealt AA/KK (if I remember correctly it is about .9%). Saying you run into AA/KK 1% on a FR table is ridiculous.
-This is extremely exploitable and anyone halfway decent will pick up on it and start calling you very light (but still ahead of your range)
-People do not call open pushes fullstacked with Ax or two faces hardly ever. Only the biggest donks will do this
-Greatly narrows the range of any hands you play normally

I agree with others that shortstacked it is less horrendous
a final note, you will never learn to play poker playing like this. Even if it did work at NL50 and 100 (which it won't, i must reiterate) you have no hope of ever becoming a good player
/thread
/night

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

[ QUOTE ]
Heres the breakdown as I see it:
90% of the time the push goes uncontested
10% of the time, I get a call:
-1% of that is AA/KK
-5% is pocket pairs
-4% is two faces (Ax,KQ,JK,..)

[/ QUOTE ]

When you hold AK, each opponent has a .49% chance of holding AA or KK (6/1225). Each opponent who doesn't hold an A or a K makes it slightly more likely that someone will hold AA or KK, therefore, shoving UTG in a 9 handed game, you have very close to a 4% chance of running into AA or KK.

2% vs. AA you lose 92% or 82BB per
2% vs. KK you lose 69% or 38BB per
4% vs. QQ you lose 56% or 12BB per
6% vs. AK you chop and lose 2BB to the rake (1BB @ NL100)

If your opponents only called with these hands, leaving you to win the pot 88% of the time, your open push would have an expectation of:

.88(1.5BB) - .02(82BB) - .02(38BB) - .04(12BB) - .06(2BB)
= 1.32 - 1.64 - .76 - .48 - .12 = -1.68

-1.68BB w/AK is --EV in my book.

Now, that's assuming your opponents only call with a range of QQ+/AK. Every pocket pair they call with takes away a little bit of EV, although we can safely assume you won't get called by anyone who holds a pair every time.

As for your assertion that you get called five times as often by a hand you're dominating as by AA or KK, I think that's absurd, but, if it's true, how often do you need to get called by AQ or worse to make this +EV?

8% vs. AQ you win 74% or 48BB per
gives you +3.84BB

So if your opponents actually call your open shove for 100BB half the time they're dealt AQ (and always for JJ-), then yes, this is +EV. If they're calling with AJ/KQ type hands, then it's ++EV. If that's the case, though, you could probably teach us all a thing or two about game selection.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

Not sure if I understand what is going on here.

Lets say that preflop you make the average raise of 3-4 times the BB, they raise 3x that and you think that past information they always have queens or jacks here. Then yeah, you shove I think. You are priced in, there's a chance they will fold thinking you have aa or kk, and you have built the pot enough that you have to get it in with a little less than a coin flip. If they actually call you with a/q or worse here, then this is definitely a good play. Please tell me which players are this dumb.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

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LOL

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Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

Hmm you disagree? I play with a player who refuses to push kings or aces preflop because he is afraid that people won't play with him and he thinks he HAS to win big pots with aces or kings. Any time he plays ultra aggressive preflop means queens or jacks, against him I 3 or 4 bet A/K all day due to my tight image. When he folds it's obviously pure profit, when he calls then I have the odds due to the previous action even though I'm a slight under dog. Obviously I never do this readless, and would not play A/K that way otherwise.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

i read this and thought i was being levelled [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] i wasnt :S

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

This thread is about OPEN-shoving. That means you're betting 100 BB to win 1.5 BB. Shoving over a 3-bet is an entirely different situation.

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

OH WOW

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

bluegrassplayer making a bid for worst poster in this thread

Re: 50NL - I open push 100 bets with AK all day
 

Hmmm open shoving is different, didn't know that term. Yeah this must be a troll then.