Do I have to push here?
 

Player is SLAG but I'm new to table....

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $36.60
CO: $24.65
BTN: $27.10
Hero (SB): $24
BB: $13.25

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $0.25, CO folds, BTN calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.50</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $1.25, BTN folds

Flop: ($3.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $9.50</font>, <font color="red">

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

limp call makes sutied connectors and low pairs like 5s, 6s a big part of the range, its true you have outs but given the raise on a monotone board I dont think the overpair is ahead here much, with you being new to the table and no reads, a bet fold is okay

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

standard push..why wouldn't u

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
standard push..why wouldn't u

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that really depends on a what the realistic hand range for my opponent is, doesn't it? I have to heavily weight him for draws here for me to be ahead, no?

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

Some quick, hopefully semi-accurate math..
You need to win &gt; 42% of the time to profit.

You have 31.7% equity vs made flushes.
You have 34.6% equity vs sets.
You have 85.6% equity vs flush draw + pair hands like KQ.

55, 66 - total 6 combos
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Qx - 3 combos
Suited connectors, don't know which ones he limp with, but worth only 1 combo each, let's say 6 of them.

So, sets 40%, connectors 40%, KQ 20%.
.4*.317 + .4*.346 + .2*.856* = 43.6% equity

He may not call with KQ every time, so that hurts our equity. Add in the chance he has some unaccounted for worse hands. These two probably balance each other. I think a push is break even or marginal +EV. Push and gamble.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
standard push..why wouldn't u

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that really depends on a what the realistic hand range for my opponent is, doesn't it? I have to heavily weight him for draws here for me to be ahead, no?

[/ QUOTE ]





yes thats true..drawe have 2 b part of his range..but when the villian is not known i have a tendency 2 push in this instance..maybe thats a leak on my part but i hate folding a hand like yours agaisnt unknown.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

I think a push here is will +EV...

I can not do the math but hopefully my thoughts are clear...No matter what villains range is we are less then a 2 to 1 underdog at the worst..With the dead money in the pot already we are even in a better spot equity wise...Now regardless of what villains holding are it will only take a small amount of FE and/or small % of times when villain is pushing a lesser hand(like KQ,Pair + FD,straight draw, naked Ks and other random crap) for a push to be easily +EV

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

I wonder if a call would be better, or a reraise that isn't all in, something that ensures that the hands we beat stay in.

Edit: Actually no, ignore that.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

its hard to say with no reads if he does this with a pair plus a high spadeor only sets and 2 pair type hands, so the equity could be close to even, so I guess its really question how much variance can you take, if variance doesnt tilt you as much as a the next guy, gamble and shove

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

I think we have to push for fear of another spade falling and potentially killing our action vs sets and smaller flushes.

Also, in my post above I basically ran a near worst case scenario. The only hand I include that we are beating is K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q, and we still have enough equity to push slightly +EV.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

good uNL god yes

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

push that [censored]

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

Exactly what range do you put your opponent on that you wouldn't push here? Are you saying he'd only raise here with sets and flushes? I would push just for the opportunity to put my opponent on tilt when I bust him with the nut redraw.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

we have great equity vs almost all villain's holdings.

WHAMMO this flop.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

Push here every day and twice on Sunday.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

easiest push ever

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
good uNL god yes

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously...standard push.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

Pushing your entire stack in with this villain is ridiculous.

We punish bad play by making appropriate folds and value betting amongst other plays. Don't stack off because you're going to win 52% of the time against a player who will probably give you better scenarios in the near future.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

I'd just fold, he has a set 1678% of the time here.

I mean, seriously. You have an overpair and a redraw to the nuts.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing your entire stack in with this villain is ridiculous.

We punish bad play by making appropriate folds and value betting amongst other plays. Don't stack off because you're going to win 52% of the time against a player who will probably give you better scenarios in the near future.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isnt a tournament, if we're 52% ahead we push if it fails we reload and take him in another spot. This is a variance hand and if your low on your br maybe you shouldnt but if your fully rolled, i cant see why we shouldnt push?

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

grunching

No, why would you raise this? There are no bad turn cards and SLAG isn't checking turn. Check and call push on turn.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

I push this flop. All day. Why would you NOT play for your stack with an overpair and the nut flush draw?

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

We have limited reads. Here's what we do know...

1)Villain has $36.60 at a $25 buy-in table. He's here to play some poker.
2)Villain called first in at 6max. He's not very good in that regard.
3)Villain called a big PFR from Hero(in the blind). He chose to show no aggression PF and just call, call.
4)Villain sees 3 spades, a Queen, and a descent continuation bet from Hero yet decides to way overbet the pot. The overbet is ridiculous and beyond what is required to make a flush draw error by calling.
5)Villain does not have the nuts.

Call, call, overbet. Q6, Q5, 65, QQ, 55, 66, XYspades all make sense. Qx is dumb and ulikely to provoke such an overbet although anything is within the realm of possibility.

Given what we know I see insufficient evidence that the villain is dumb/crazy enough to stack off with a holding that is inferior to ours. So I fold until his donkiness is more evident later in the hour.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]

4)Villain sees 3 spades, a Queen, and a descent continuation bet from Hero yet decides to way overbet the pot. The overbet is ridiculous and beyond what is required to make a flush draw error by calling.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is a PSR an overbet? He's betting 7.50 into a 7.50 pot.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

Folding/not pushing this would be like folding KK for 100BB pre.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't stack off because you're going to win 52% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you being serious?

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
grunching

No, why would you raise this? There are no bad turn cards and SLAG isn't checking turn. Check and call push on turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

if a spade hits this probably will not happen. Thats why

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
against a player who will probably give you better scenarios in the near future.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this an argument for a push or a fold?

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

all guys who said they aren't pushing. plz write Your nicks and site where You play.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

happily shove

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if a spade hits this probably will not happen. Thats why

[/ QUOTE ]Hmm, you're probably right. If it was some kind of manaic I would happily call and check/call though. A lot of the time they just have no hand anyways and are more likely to bluff/shove when the fourth spade hits. Against a really aggressive AND not very smart player (has to be both) slowplay is best here in my view. Everyone else, shove.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

I'm still a little on the fence about everyone's sureness about pushing.

I'm not trying to be results oriented but I pushed here getting my whole stack in with 7 outs.

It seems that for me to push, I have to weigh my opponent heavily towards1 pair and draw hands.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

you have slightly more than 7 outs vs a made flush cos you can runner runner a boat on rare occasions.

This is a thin +EV push - but it's still a push.

Even if we think his shove calling range here is exactly:

Board: Qs 5s 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.907% 44.91% 00.00% 11559 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 55.093% 55.09% 00.00% 14181 0.00 { KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QQ, 66-55, KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 4s3s, 3s2s, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh }

which is KQo w/ K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], KK w/ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], set, made flush with reasonable sooted cards. It'd still be +EV to push and his range is wider than this I think. Add in all the times he has a hand he folds to our push and this is a push with fistpump.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

100% instashove.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
you have slightly more than 7 outs vs a made flush cos you can runner runner a boat on rare occasions.

This is a thin +EV push - but it's still a push.

Even if we think his shove calling range here is exactly:

Board: Qs 5s 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.907% 44.91% 00.00% 11559 0.00 { AhAs }
Hand 1: 55.093% 55.09% 00.00% 14181 0.00 { KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QQ, 66-55, KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Ts9s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 4s3s, 3s2s, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh }

which is KQo w/ K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], KK w/ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], set, made flush with reasonable sooted cards. It'd still be +EV to push and his range is wider than this I think. Add in all the times he has a hand he folds to our push and this is a push with fistpump.

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boy - I have to admit its shocking how much equity I have even with his hand possibilities being that narrow. Thanks for stoving it.

Re: Do I have to push here?
 

grunch...vs. an SLAG? yes, push, he can be doing this with enough pair/draw combos to make it profitable.