TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

The villain is a standard aggressive player with about 22.9/17.34/2.15 over 1240 hands. c/c or c/r on the flop?

Prima Poker skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, Hero..?

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The villain is a standard aggressive player with about 22.9/17.34/2.15 over 1240 hands. c/c or c/r on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

not enough information, need more significant digits for all stats.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

Just count combos yo!

You need 67% eq to raise since you are gonna call a 3-bet. Assuming he will call with JJ:

You have about 90% eq against 6 combos of JJ and 12 AK
You have about 20% eq against 6 KK
You have about 0% against 1 QQ
You have about 10% against 3 AA

(18*0.9 + 6*0.2 + 3*0.1)/28 ~ 63%

call down

If you can add KQ to his range you can prolly raise.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

There is TT in his range, it looks too close. Can we b/f a river blank against an instant raise ?

edit: he takes the free card with Ak on the turn quite often and AQ is in his range not a good idea probably.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

actually,

90% -&gt; 77%
20% ok
0% -&gt; 2%
10% -&gt; 9%

63% -&gt; 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!)

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
actually,

90% -&gt; 77%
20% ok
0% -&gt; 2%
10% -&gt; 9%

63% -&gt; 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah. AK has straight draw and JJ has bdsd.

BTW that range I quoted is the tightest range we should expect.

We need to add AQ which pulls our eq closer to 50% and lower pp's like TT, 99, 88.

KQs is a possibility as well not to mention the odd tilt cap by T8s.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just count combos yo!

You need 67% eq to raise since you are gonna call a 3-bet. Assuming he will call with JJ:

You have about 90% eq against 6 combos of JJ and 12 AK
You have about 20% eq against 6 KK
You have about 0% against 1 QQ
You have about 10% against 3 AA

(18*0.9 + 6*0.2 + 3*0.1)/28 ~ 63%

call down

If you can add KQ to his range you can prolly raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
How did you arrive at 67%?

On the other hand, do I need 67% for any value raise?

BTW, I've checked all his HH and found he r/ced his AQo, so I assume his 4b range UTG is: AQ+,99+

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

How much you need depends on how villain will react to a raise.

So you are in a river spot where you beat villain 99 out of 100. I.e your eq is 99%. However if you raise villain will 3-bet his 1% where he is ahead of you and fold any hand that is loosing. So you will have to fold to a raise

EV of raising is -1*0.01 + 0*0.99 = -0.01

So even if your eq is huge you cant make a profitable raise if villain is never calling a worse hand.



Now back to this spot. If we assume that villain will call all worse hands and 3-bet all better hands then raising will win you 1 bet when ahead and loose you 2 bets when behind (given you call the 3-bet).

This means that you are raising to win 1 bet when ahead and 2 bets when behind. So for this to be good you need to be ahead 2 in 3 times or 67%.

However. This is such a simplified way to do things. If you want to do a precise EV analysis you need to make a range for villain, assume what he is gonna do with each hand given your action - not only on the flop but also on the turn and river and on every possible turn/river combo. Needless to say this is gonna be a huge calculation and by the tim eyou are done you could have won 100BB's just playing instead.


So the 67% I quoted is just a loose estimate of how much you need in lack of a better and more precise analysis

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

I check call in these spots. This is WA/WB. You either have him reverse dominated or he's got you beat.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I check call in these spots. This is WA/WB. You either have him reverse dominated or he's got you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to c/r a guy like me or any other loosish guy with a wide preflop range

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I check call in these spots. This is WA/WB. You either have him reverse dominated or he's got you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to c/r a guy like me or any other loosish guy with a wide preflop range

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't play against guys like you. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I check call in these spots. This is WA/WB. You either have him reverse dominated or he's got you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to c/r a guy like me or any other loosish guy with a wide preflop range

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree...but from the OP this guy is like 22/17...thats not very loose.

Continue...
 

Actually, I called on the flop and want to see what happens on the turn:

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.5BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, Hero...

Ks is really a scary card for me. What is my action then?

Re: Continue...
 

I fold on that card. That's how my session went yesterday. I'd call on the flop knowing I probably have them dominated, but then the worst card(s) would come on the turn or river. If you call the flop planning to call down or raise the turn, you don't have to be committed to that. Also, caps still tend to mean TT+ and AK+ from most people.

Re: Continue...
 

Even though you picked up the straight draw I still think this is a fold now.

The straight draw will lead to a split against his range some, and you are behind basically all of his range now. At 4-5 outs this is a fold.

Re: Continue...
 

Stop folding yo!


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,188 games 0.031 secs 38,322 games/sec

Board: Qd Tc 2s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.591% 66.25% 05.35% 787 63.50 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 28.409% 23.06% 05.35% 274 63.50 { AdQh }


Our hot cold eq is fine because there is so many JJ combos and because we have at least 4 outs vs the rest of the hands. (Except AsKs)

This guy is gonna check beind JJ. So IMO there is only one thing to do now and thats call the turn and c/f river UI. If a Q river I think I bet/puke. If an A rivers I will c/f. If a J rivers I bet/3-bet


Even discounting JJ by 50% and removing AQs form his range we can c/c c/f

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

968 games 0.005 secs 193,600 games/sec

Board: Tc Qd 2s Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.318% 16.84% 02.48% 163 24.00 { AdQh }
Hand 1: 80.682% 78.20% 02.48% 757 24.00 { QQ+, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, TT, AKs, AKo }


---

Re: Continue...
 

call call call

Re: Continue...
 

Oink can take any situation and work the numbers into a call. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Good analysis though. It seems thin, but makes sense if you think he won't 3 barrel.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
actually,

90% -&gt; 77%
20% ok
0% -&gt; 2%
10% -&gt; 9%

63% -&gt; 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah. AK has straight draw and JJ has bdsd.

BTW that range I quoted is the tightest range we should expect.

We need to add AQ which pulls our eq closer to 50% and lower pp's like TT, 99, 88.

KQs is a possibility as well not to mention the odd tilt cap by T8s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might not cap preflop with my hands (tho sometimes that's a good play) but villian (basically my stats) open raises UTG down to 6s along with KQs and QJs. Folding here is a HUGE mistake in my opinion even when the K hits the turn.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
actually,

90% -&gt; 77%
20% ok
0% -&gt; 2%
10% -&gt; 9%

63% -&gt; 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah. AK has straight draw and JJ has bdsd.

BTW that range I quoted is the tightest range we should expect.

We need to add AQ which pulls our eq closer to 50% and lower pp's like TT, 99, 88.

KQs is a possibility as well not to mention the odd tilt cap by T8s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might not cap preflop with my hands (tho sometimes that's a good play) but villian (basically my stats) open raises UTG down to 6s along with KQs and QJs. Folding here is a HUGE mistake in my opinion even when the K hits the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't cap those hands.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
actually,

90% -&gt; 77%
20% ok
0% -&gt; 2%
10% -&gt; 9%

63% -&gt; 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah. AK has straight draw and JJ has bdsd.

BTW that range I quoted is the tightest range we should expect.

We need to add AQ which pulls our eq closer to 50% and lower pp's like TT, 99, 88.

KQs is a possibility as well not to mention the odd tilt cap by T8s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might not cap preflop with my hands (tho sometimes that's a good play) but villian (basically my stats) open raises UTG down to 6s along with KQs and QJs. Folding here is a HUGE mistake in my opinion even when the K hits the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't cap those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, i guess this could be a fold.....well i call this on 50c/1 which is what I play, but that might be a mistake.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
actually,

90% -&gt; 77%
20% ok
0% -&gt; 2%
10% -&gt; 9%

63% -&gt; 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah. AK has straight draw and JJ has bdsd.

BTW that range I quoted is the tightest range we should expect.

We need to add AQ which pulls our eq closer to 50% and lower pp's like TT, 99, 88.

KQs is a possibility as well not to mention the odd tilt cap by T8s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I might not cap preflop with my hands (tho sometimes that's a good play) but villian (basically my stats) open raises UTG down to 6s along with KQs and QJs. Folding here is a HUGE mistake in my opinion even when the K hits the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't cap those hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, i guess this could be a fold.....well i call this on 50c/1 which is what I play, but that might be a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can honestly say I would probably call and lose this a lot...but looking at it now, I just dont think we can count on winning this all that often.

Re: TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?
 

oink owned this thread