25 - low set...fold this river?
 

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $37.20
SB: $21.05
BB: $24.40
UTG: $23.85
MP: $37.10
Hero (CO): $24.65

Pre-Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $0.25, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($3.85) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.85) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $2</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $6

River: ($19.85) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $14.60 and is All-In</font>, Hero ???

villain is 19/7/.5 over 58 hands

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

cawl

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I like how this hand was played. I know villian's sample size is small, but do you think he would bet a flush draw into 2 others on the turn. I think it's a call, and if you got coolered, it's unfortunate.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I probably fold based on his aggression factor. If you've seen him overvalue hands before, I'd call expecting to see QJ a lot of the time, but without a read besides his aggression, I think this is a reluctant fold.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I think youre beat here. Im not sure if villain would bet a flush draw here, but he could have flopped or turned a straight. People love to limp suited connectors in all positions. Im not sure why he would shove this river, but maybe he thinks his hand is still best and is afraid you will check behind. I dont like calling these bets until I get a good read here on villain. Then of course there is also the possibility he really did bet a flush draw into 2 others, maybe something like AJss or even A8ss.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I fold. I think this is actually a slow played flopped straight, but could easily be the flush. I think it's one of those more often than 2 pair.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

how fast did he push? timing tells are really good in this spot.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

He has 9T or backdoor spades, maybe an overset. No hands take this line that we beat, especially from a nit like this.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

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He has 9T or backdoor spades, maybe an overset. No hands take this line that we beat, especially from a nit like this.

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QJ doesn't take that line?

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

i really don't think this is a flush because the fact that it seems obvious that he has a flush leaves a lot of money on the table for him. if he does have the flush he totally misplayed it (because he played it exactly like someone would if they had the flush). that and turn call is heinous given his stack size and calling 6 into a 12ish pot lol. i don't know, i'm going to take an unpopular opinion and say we're good here. if you ended up calling, please PM me the results if you don't mind. i think we're only beat by 910 here, especially if he autoshoved (lol i've done that so many times, a card that breaks your nuts, you instashove while saying "FU IF YOU HIT THAT CALL THIS I HAD THE NUTS GOSIFDNOAINFS!"

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I think QJ would have bet the flop(at least I would).
For me it's a call. Then I swear through the chat window when he flips a backdoor flush.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

This is the type of guy who either turbomucks a J on the turn against your "obvious" flopped straight, or check/calls the river with two pair even if he somehow manages to talk himself into calling the turn.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

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how fast did he push? timing tells are really good in this spot.

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quickly if I recall correctly..within 3 seconds maybe

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

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how fast did he push? timing tells are really good in this spot.

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quickly if I recall correctly..within 3 seconds maybe

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i swear you were good here. and 3 seconds isn't that fast.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I'd call here.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

call every time and cry when you lose

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I'm pretty sure this was against me, I played you last night and those stats look about right to me, if you want pm me the name of villain.

If not I had a hand very similiar to this last night, and I had complete air.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I'm definitely calling this. The stats are over a small sample, ok to say he is fairly tight preflop, but nothing to tell you about his postflop game. AF needs many more hands to be meaningful.
I think there are enough strange situations and bad players pushing weaker hands at this level to make up for the times your opp backdoored a flush or flopped a straight.
I wouldnt love it, but I hate to drop a set against a single opp unless I have very good information that I am beat. That beaing said, I like your play in this hand, and I dont think a fold is a big mistake either.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

No one is giving a good reason to call though other than "We have a set". I understand we dont like to fold sets, I think I can count on one hand the number of times I have done it, but from villains line, I think this is a straight or a flush like everytime. Lets at least give villain a range here before just saying, call and curse if we lose, I think thats terrible. I dont think QJ takes this line, IME this is not two pair often when villains take this line. This could easily be T9, 56, AJss, A8ss, it could even be 88 or JJ. First of all, does a 19/7 even 3 bet JJ? I dont know honestly, so I cant say but Im sure its at least partly in his range. And we all know villains love to slowplay their big hands, so sets and straight definitely are possible. So many times when I see villains take this line it is with a monster hand that wants to get paid off. I think I have seen like 3 villains so far in almost 12k hands that have done this with air fwiw.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

i am like 95% sure this was me now, however it might have been when I was tilting, so chances are I had air here. Will check PT when I get home.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

If you had air here, then congratulations, youre one of the few people who would pull this, but then again youre on this site so everything changes. Im giving my advice against what I know about the villain, which is not much. And I know that pretty much every unknown that takes this line does it with the goods.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

i'm pretty sure I call all day. Even with what I consider to be a tight range, you have enough equity. If you throw in some other hands like AJ/KJ/JT/J9 then it's a really easy call.

---

Board: Jc 7s 8h 4s Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.860% 41.86% 00.00% 18 0.00 { 4d4h }
Hand 1: 58.140% 58.14% 00.00% 25 0.00 { 88-77, AsJs, KsJs, QJs, T9s, 9s8s, 87s, QJo, T9o, 87o }

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

Traz did you see this guys stats? I dont think AJ/KJ/JT/J9 are ever in his range here. I have to even give some skepticism to alot of those two pair hands. I think if you want to include two pair in there, it should be one of those QJ hands, not both, and definitely not 87.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

If you don't think he's aggro enough to bet AJ or 78, then he's not aggro enough to bet spades either. But you're really just fooling yourself.

You guys need to stop putting so much emphasis on stats. I've seen alot of bad advice recently based solely on stats over a small sample. It's bad practice.

You have a good hand. Villain is a bad player. It's really that simple.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

And also I really hope villain wasn't a 2p2er cause his play is terrible

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I do think hes aggro enough to bet AJ or 78...on the turn. Also, I dont think hes aggro enough to bet a plain flush draw. But AJss and A8ss are a whole different story. Im just saying from what I have seen so far, I can count on one hand the number of times I see this done with one pair, or even two pair. This is almost always a set, straight or flush when villains take this line. I think his turn betting range is wide enough, but Im not convinced his river range is wide enough. As far as stats go, I think they make a difference here, but Im not saying they are the end all answer. However, when I see most villains taking this line with very strong holdings, and then I see a villain with these stats take the same line, I think its safe to assume we are beat.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I understand how you feel. I just don't agree.

With a range of sets + straights + flushes + 2pair, we have the equity to call. IMO that is a tight range against any terrible villain, and villain is terrible. Thus I think it's definitely fine to call river.

If you believe that there is no chance of 2pair or worse in his range, then fine fold, I just think you're wrong.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

How often does two pair have to show up here to make calling profitable seeing as how we are losing to everything else in that range?

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

I probably press call and switch windows immediately to read some news or something [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

Seriously, someone who can do the math for this, how often does two pair have to show up here to make calling correct? If we put his range mostly on sets/straights/flushes, we are obviously looking at a very -EV situation, so there has to be an abundance of two pair hands to counter act that I think.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

im guessing you see 1 pair here a lot more than you see 2 pair

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

phew, just so my name isn't sullied - this wasn't me.

Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

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No one is giving a good reason to call though other than "We have a set". I understand we dont like to fold sets, I think I can count on one hand the number of times I have done it, but from villains line, I think this is a straight or a flush like everytime. Lets at least give villain a range here before just saying, call and curse if we lose, I think thats terrible. I dont think QJ takes this line, IME this is not two pair often when villains take this line. This could easily be T9, 56, AJss, A8ss, it could even be 88 or JJ. First of all, does a 19/7 even 3 bet JJ? I dont know honestly, so I cant say but Im sure its at least partly in his range. And we all know villains love to slowplay their big hands, so sets and straight definitely are possible. So many times when I see villains take this line it is with a monster hand that wants to get paid off. I think I have seen like 3 villains so far in almost 12k hands that have done this with air fwiw.

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i really don't think this is a flush because the fact that it seems obvious that he has a flush leaves a lot of money on the table for him. if he does have the flush he totally misplayed it (because he played it exactly like someone would if they had the flush). that and turn call is heinous given his stack size and calling 6 into a 12ish pot lol. i don't know, i'm going to take an unpopular opinion and say we're good here. if you ended up calling, please PM me the results if you don't mind. i think we're only beat by 910 here, especially if he autoshoved (lol i've done that so many times, a card that breaks your nuts, you instashove while saying "FU IF YOU HIT THAT CALL THIS I HAD THE NUTS GOSIFDNOAINFS!"

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Re: 25 - low set...fold this river?
 

Bad villains dont think that a flush is obvious and you will fold to a bet. When they take this line, they are thinking how strong of a hand they have and are afraid you wont bet for them. They do this because they want value on their big hands. I know that he misplayed it if he has a flush, thats what makes him a donk in the first place. He doesnt think about stack sizes either.