NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

SB: 73/8/2.6
BB: 51/12/2.2 (have not seen him 3bet in 60 hands we were at the table together)

both oponents were rather passive pf mostly limping and calling, that is why I thought BB's 3betting range might be JJ+, AK at most - but probably even tighter

is my play ok?

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $46.85
CO: $43
Hero (BTN): $79.22
SB: $16.57
BB: $48.61

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB calls $1.75, <font color="red">BB raises to $7</font>, Hero calls $5, SB calls $5

Flop: ($21) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $9.57 and is All-In</font>, BB calls $9.57, Hero calls $9.57

Turn: ($49.71) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players - 1 is All-In)
<font color="red">BB bets $32.04 and is All-In</font>, Hero folds

River: ($49.71) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 2 are All-In)

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

push flop

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

for value or as a bluff? what do I want to fold out and what can I expect to call?

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

I don't like the call behind on the flop... You either fold or push, and I like shoving....

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

I think calling FLOP and folding TURN is bad .If he has JJ/KK/AA nh..but I don't think we can just call PF with QQ and continue in the hand like this.
Here I would just shove flop.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

IMO flop decision should be based on BB's flop action.

If he calls, I shove (i.e. as played).

If he shoves, I fold.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

If you are going to only call the flop, then you really are doing it to get your opponent to fire again if you feel he will fold. Though after he puts in the original bet he isn't going anywhere so you need to value push the flop.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

I had villain on JJ+ or AK, from this range I only beat AK. I thought that if I push flop AK will fold and everything else calls and beats me. I also thought that AK will not bet turn unimproved all the time and being in position I can reevaluate based on villain's action.

Maybe I should have folded on the flop.

Do you think pushing flop is better than folding or caling? If so why? Do I have him on too tight a 3bet range? Does he call with worse?

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

call turn dude.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

well you only have 60 hands on villain.. there's a chance he was card dead.. shove flop here all day and if he shoves flop fold.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

Why did you call preflop if you say his range is prob tighter. Then you're almost def. behind already.

Can't play for set value so fold, given the (tighter)range you put him on.

As played, shove flop after BB calls

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

Once you call preflop, you aren't playing for set value (you don't get the odds). I.e. you think QQ will be good if you flop an overpair. That means shove flop.

And I think you seriously need to reconsider their ranges. These guys don't know [censored] about which hands can be used for what preflop, so assigning such a tight range is wrong IMO.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

Umm I don't see how you can call the flop then fold the turn when nothing gets there. I'm shoving this flop against these opponents all day

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

is it better to 4bet pf then?

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

if you don't push this flop you could have just folded preflop.

threebet pot with an overpair means that if no overcard comes we gonna put our stack into the middle 99% of the time.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
is it better to 4bet pf then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just went through this whole thread thinking I probably would have 4bet pre-flop there and not one person mentioned it.


Well I probably 4bet pre-flop there. What do people think about that? I think it's the best play.



As played shove flop. As played I puke on turn cause I really do doubt your ahead but but.....

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

Lego05:
So raise to soemthin like 21 and if villain shoves fold? Almost third of Hero stack is in there by then.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Lego05:
So raise to soemthin like 21 and if villain shoves fold? Almost third of Hero stack is in there by then.

[/ QUOTE ]

21 would be fine. I'd prolly make it 22-24 but who cares. And no...if villian shoves then call.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

4bet pre is a bluff with QQ. Why turn an excellent hand into a bluff?

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
4bet pre is a bluff with QQ. Why turn an excellent hand into a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]


Nah. Both villains are over aggro donks. They are definitely felting worse here pre.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

"both oponents were rather passive pf mostly limping and calling"

Are we reading the same hand?

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
"both oponents were rather passive pf mostly limping and calling"

Are we reading the same hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just looking at the stats. This is also a btn, sb, bb situations which changes the dynamics. Calling may be better and shoving good flops depending on how spewy they are post flop.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"both oponents were rather passive pf mostly limping and calling"

Are we reading the same hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just looking at the stats. This is also a btn, sb, bb situations which changes the dynamics. Calling may be better and shoving good flops depending on how spewy they are post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yo, 51/12s don't 3-bet light, and they probably don't even care that it's BSB.

If you're gonna fold turn, fold flop because he's not gonna give up all that often and just check it down.

Since you called flop, call turn. Nothing changed.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yo, 51/12s don't 3-bet light

[/ QUOTE ]

Them not 3 betting light is an argument in favor of four betting not against it. We are hoping they have AQ, AJ, JJ, etc and felt it pre since villain probably doesn't have a fold button.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

I'm lost like a 5yo igloo kid in the center of Manhattan.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"both oponents were rather passive pf mostly limping and calling"

Are we reading the same hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just looking at the stats. This is also a btn, sb, bb situations which changes the dynamics. Calling may be better and shoving good flops depending on how spewy they are post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yo, 51/12s don't 3-bet light, and they probably don't even care that it's BSB.

If you're gonna fold turn, fold flop because he's not gonna give up all that often and just check it down.

Since you called flop, call turn. Nothing changed.

[/ QUOTE ]

doesn't the fact that he bets turn tell me he does not have AK and I am beat?

is calling down as if this was WA/WB better than shovin flop?

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

Its not about calling turn. Its about calling flop. Why would you give a 6 outer a free card? If its an aggro opponent how 3bets light - thats fine. Not against a fish.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yo, 51/12s don't 3-bet light

[/ QUOTE ]

Them not 3 betting light is an argument in favor of four betting not against it. We are hoping they have AQ, AJ, JJ, etc and felt it pre since villain probably doesn't have a fold button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like that thinking because they're only RAISING 12% of their hands, so I'm guessing AJ and AQ are more calling hands for them. Maybe he 3-bets JJ, but prob not.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Its not about calling turn. Its about calling flop. Why would you give a 6 outer a free card? If its an aggro opponent how 3bets light - thats fine. Not against a fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think I like raising flop.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

you have an overpair vs. two retards. the rest is relatively insignificant.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

I think weak-tight nits everywhere - me included - will have sympathy for OP's dilema in this hand. And I don't have a huge amount of confidence in my assessment below, but here it is anyway...

Firstly, I disagree with the "if you call flop you must call turn" line. Villain's range is dynamic, so we don't need a turn card that changes things to re-assess villain's range - it can be distinct from his flop range irrespective of the turn card.

On the flop we are getting 4/1 on our call. If our preflop read is he has JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AK, then on the flop we are priced in to call in order to wait and see if we can work out on turn if he has AK.

Also, his flat on the flop is a pretty likely sign that AK is indeed what he has but I still prefer a call to a push as: we very rarely get called by the AK when we shove, villain's range is better defined on the turn, his equity drops on turn if he has w/6 outs but may still be tempted to c/c our push.

On turn, villain is either panicing with his AK - meh, I think he checks it tbh - or he had one of the premiums preflop. We have invested $17 at this point, and are getting a bit better than 2/1 on a call. At this point, I do not think he has AK 33% of the time (and still with 6 outs). So I fold.

Like I said, weak-tight nit.



Edit: Bah, I'm pretty sure a lot of the above is plain wrong lol.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

If your calling preflop and then calling flop with the intention of giving up to a PSP/2 streets bet on a rag board you doing something fundamentally wrong. You either misreading his range preflop where you should have folded or your not protecting your hand on the flop. What equity drop your talking about? We are not flipping. I would love him to call with AK.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

I meant the equity drop between flop and turn if he has 6 outs...but yeah, I am totally wrong on that point because of course we'd want him to call with AK.

But we still have the FToP problem that when we push flop AK folds a lot, and we get owned by JJ/KK/AA.

On the preflop range, I'm really going on OP's range which seems reasonable: JJ+/AK. If we add AJ/AQ/TT then things change, but I am really not sure those are in villain's pf 3b range.


Edit to add: Cor, I'm not sure this is a rag flop as the J screws up one of the the preflop hands we were beating: JJ.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

But you realize that

AKo + AKs = 1.20%
AA + KK + JJ = 1.35%

Plus you have 10% to suck out.
Plus he will call with AK occasionally.
Plus he usually has a wider range.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

so if someone with low pfr who never 3bet before 3bets me pf and I think his range is JJ+/AK should I fold QQ? I stoved it and I am basically flipping against that range pf so I should call. Is that right?

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

I played around with pokerstove and came up with this, please confirm if that's ok or I made some error

I think villain would not call with all his AK-s so I constructed this calling range

JJ+,AKs,AdKc,AhKc,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh

against this range we have 35% equity

so EV = A x 40$ + 0.35 x 113.5$ - 41.5$

where A is the percentage we need him to fold
40$ is the pot we win if he folds

(I assumed here we will beat the shortstack that is allin 100% of the time for simplicity - dont know if this is acceptable)

113.5$ is the pot if our push gets called
41.5$ is the amount we need to put into the pot for the allin

(I did not count the pot sizes accurately)

so EV = A x 40 - 1.78$
A = 0.04

we need him to fold 4% of the time for the push to be profitable. Is this how situations like this should be calculated or am I doing something wrong? Does the fact that I disregard the shorstack that is allin skew the results considerably?



By these numbers it looks like a clear push as most of you suggested

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yo, 51/12s don't 3-bet light

[/ QUOTE ]

Them not 3 betting light is an argument in favor of four betting not against it. We are hoping they have AQ, AJ, JJ, etc and felt it pre since villain probably doesn't have a fold button.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like that thinking because they're only RAISING 12% of their hands, so I'm guessing AJ and AQ are more calling hands for them. Maybe he 3-bets JJ, but prob not.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can all you guys put him squarely on JJ+,AK so say not to 4bet pre-flop and then want to shove the J high flop?

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

i think its a pretty ridiculous range anyway. i 3bet a much wider range than that and go 60 hands without doing it quite often. these guys have crazy tard stats, so who knows.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Its not about calling turn. Its about calling flop. Why would you give a 6 outer a free card? If its an aggro opponent how 3bets light - thats fine. Not against a fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

he can't bluff you if you push, thats why call&gt;raise. Your too exploitable if your folding QQ in this spot. Call flop call turn.

call flop/fold turn is real bad.

Re: NL50 - folding overpair in 3bet pot
 

Does anyone agree with this:

Call flop/call turn &gt;&gt;&gt; Call flop/fold turn &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&g t;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Push flop.