polishing off the cannon
 

villain is 37/7 but only 23% WSD, so he's playing fairly fit or fold. notice that my betting might be on the smaller side as a percentage of the pot, but will succeed in getting us all-in by the river (if i wish) and has the effect of stack pressure.

a few questions:

1) is turn bet spew? i'm obviously valuebetting any heart, ace, or jack on the river. i MAY bluff a club.

2) do you check or shove river? in addition A/J/[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are there any other rivers we might bluff? on this river, describe your thought process for checking or betting. i think it's fairly interesting...

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $148
CO: $197
Hero (BTN): $199.65
SB: $98
BB: $569.25
UTG: $300.50

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $2, MP calls $2, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $9, MP folds

Flop: ($27) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $18</font>, UTG calls $18

Turn: ($63) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $44</font>, UTG calls $44

River: ($151) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks,

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I like checking behind, because many underpairs are straights or sets at this point, and we beat a lot of draws.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

$135 if you are betting turn.

Turn is a good bet I think. If I had clubs I might check it (the nut draw) to bring under flushes along or straight draws along that are drawing versus the clubs. Here if we raise we are likely drawing to nine outs anyway so it's not a really big deal if we are pushed out on the turn.

As far as the river he either has a (weak ten to A10) or a draw...if you fire close to pot I honestly can't see how he can call with any of those. The turn puts two flush draws and draw heaven for middling connectors...he has to raise two pair a set, you would think, as he probably isn't completely braindead.

I mean there are no scare cards that hit but your hand looks like it can beat a weak ten and if he's

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I give up on the river. I like the flop and turn bets vs. this guy though.

River just isn't a great card, we have showdown value vs. missed clubs unless he paired up. I think he might fold Tx since the board got a little scary, but I wouldn't count on it. I don't think shoving the river is terrible necessarily, but I do think there are better spots then this to 3 barrel vs. a villain like this.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I feel like I get called here by any pair because my hand is an "obvious" club draw to a donk. And if he has a draw, I'm probably best. I like checking because we actually have some SD value against his draws.

What are you looking to push him off? A combo draw? A T?

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

arrr in this is the kinda guy who folds a T here cause hes scared of a 6.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

How does our hand just look like a club draw? how does it not look like JJ-AA, sets, maybe even A10 being pretty sick good.

Do work,

Rob

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I'm kidding about the club draw, kind of. Donks see what they want to see.

"Well, he prolly has my top pair beat but he could have a club draw. And he prolly would be scared of the straight if he had AA. I cawl....LOLZ I KNEW IT!!! U BLUFFER!!!"

I'm not criticizing terp, more just curious as to what he thinks we need to worry about folding out on this river that calls the turn?

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

yah check this turn. I like a double barrel on any J/Q/K/A though.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I mean, vaginas check this river, men do not, so are you goofy or are you flamez

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

ship ship shove arrrr in

easily profitable

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

[ QUOTE ]
I mean, vaginas check this river, men do not, so are you goofy or are you flamez

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought we've established that I'm a LAG postflop.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

Not sure who got owned harded by that post. Me or goofy?

&lt;3

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

Dude, the rest of his postflop stats are critical here. Agg? W$SD? % fold to CB?

That said, the turn bet seems really pointless to me. He's generally calling with most of his range. I would only do this if he's one of those players who chases two streets then folds the river unless he improves, and I expected to follow up with a river bet no matter what.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, the rest of his postflop stats are critical here. Agg? W$SD? % fold to CB?

That said, the turn bet seems really pointless to me. He's generally calling with most of his range. I would only do this if he's one of those players who chases two streets then folds the river unless he improves, and I expected to follow up with a river bet no matter what.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

the turn bet:
-folds out hands worse than top pair (a lot)
-prevents me from getting bluffed off ace high on the river by missed draws
-gets me value in the future if i showdown my bluff

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I like checking behind on this turn. If it was a T, Q, K I would be inclined to bet it but also do not want to get check raised. Because we now have a FD, if we check behind he will rarely bluff coz of his low W2SD(maybe not right), but if he does in fact have a strong hand and we hit a flush on river we are going to get alot of value from it.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

FYI: w2sd takes many thousands of hands to converge properly.

Argument for checking behind is preserving your implied odds and the value obtained when you make your flush and he leads into you.

Argument for betting is to try to fold out less than tp. It stops him from bluffing the river etc. It also builds fold equity for the 3rd barrel.


Pretty sure a superior play is to check the flop though.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I agree 100% with terp on the turn bet fwiw. Hand is perfectly played, only decision is whether to fire river.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

1. I think turn bet is good. you'll fold out Tx, 99, 88, 98 etc. basically a very big part of villain's range. my only worry is that we miss a lot of value against a slowplayed set if we hit on the river, but sets are a very small part of his range on the flop anyway.

2. I'm not sure there's a huge amount of value in bluffing the river at this point. if he called turn with JT, he's not folding now, and i think a good part of his range includes missed combo draws because i think these guys tend to seriously overvalue their implied odds.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

[ QUOTE ]
arrr in this is the kinda guy who folds a T here cause hes scared of a 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is true at 100NL, but at 200NL i think even this guy will realise our hand damn near never contains a 6

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

[ QUOTE ]
the turn bet:
-folds out hands worse than top pair (a lot)

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause the 4 scared him?

[ QUOTE ]

-prevents me from getting bluffed off ace high on the river by missed draws


[/ QUOTE ]
Uh... what? You block the turn so he doesn't bluff on the *river*? If it comes up, deal with it then. You can always call.

[ QUOTE ]

-gets me value in the future if i showdown my bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

Um. OK, I guess.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I think terp played this hand perfectly up to this point. I bet this turn the VAST majority of the time w/ his hand as well. But I'd also do that w/ an overpair etc since so many draws are out there and 1/2 the deck could suck for us.

As for betting the river, I'm more inclined to ck behind because villain knows WE don't have a 6 and he might not think that he knows that so he may spite call w/ Tx.

I'd like more stats/reads on the guy, but my gut says to ck behind river.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the turn bet:
-folds out hands worse than top pair (a lot)

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause the 4 scared him?

[ QUOTE ]

-prevents me from getting bluffed off ace high on the river by missed draws


[/ QUOTE ]
Uh... what? You block the turn so he doesn't bluff on the *river*? If it comes up, deal with it then. You can always call.

[ QUOTE ]

-gets me value in the future if i showdown my bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

Um. OK, I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

jesus dude.

people fold for more reasons than because something changed the landscape.

1) my turn betting range on this board is stronger than my flop betting range. this is a fact. whether he realizes this or simply goes "oh no he bet again he must not have AK," you cannot tell me that plenty of donks call once with garbage underpairs and occasionally even weak top pairs and then fold the turn (regardless of whether it likely improved me).

2) this is not a good spot to call a river bet with ace high if the draws blank. this is a goddamn fact.

3) part of the value of bluffing is in getting called lighter in the future, balancing ranges, etc. even if he is not doing any sophisticated handreading, he will likely assume i am bluffing with unrealistically high frequency and i will get called down super light. fish HATE getting bluffed and if he sees me bet two here with air he will never give me credit again

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I like how the hand was played. I bet the turn versus this villain as a) 37/7s often float this flop oop (IME) b) you often fold out pairs other than a Tx c) you charge the multiple draws out there d) you're often betting the best hand e) you inflate the pot to set up a natural river shove if you hit one of your many outs, particularly as if he has a hand he calls the turn with, he's likely not folding the river.

On the river, I go vag and ck behind. I'm not a fan of trying to bluff donks of TP and you beat missed clubs. All small gutters hit the straight or 2 pair.

I love to 3 ball, but just don't think it's effective in enough of the time in this spot to be +EV.

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the turn bet:
-folds out hands worse than top pair (a lot)

[/ QUOTE ]

Cause the 4 scared him?


[/ QUOTE ]

The 4 is irrelevant. Fish like this call the flop with one pair all the time hoping to hit 2 pair on the turn, or because they has a pair and puts you on AKz.

This bet folds out all those one-pair hands that are worse than a ten.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

-prevents me from getting bluffed off ace high on the river by missed draws


[/ QUOTE ]
Uh... what? You block the turn so he doesn't bluff on the *river*? If it comes up, deal with it then. You can always call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, um, GL with that. He'll bluff the river with club draws but not with a high enough frequency to make calling profitable. And a lot of the time he's "bluffing" with bottom pair or some [censored]. Why check and induce a "bluff" from bottom pair when you can get him to FOLD bottom pair by betting?!?

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

I wouldn't expect to fold out mid PP's/second pair on this turn too often. The board is quite drawy which will bring some skepticism from your opponent. As well, you would think draws would come along also if they believe you do have an overpair.

Following this thought process, a river bet will fold out a bunch of missed draws and get looked up by stubborn PP's. This isn't to say a river shove doesn't fold the likes of 88/A7, but just that they may look you up more frequently then you think (or like for that matter).

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $148
CO: $197
Hero (BTN): $199.65
SB: $98
BB: $569.25
UTG: $300.50

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $2, MP calls $2, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $9, MP folds

Flop: ($27) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $18</font>, UTG calls $18

Turn: ($63) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $44</font>, UTG calls $44

River: ($151) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Results: $151 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Ace Jack high) and LOST (-$73 NET)
UTG showed T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Tens) and WON $148 (+$75 NET)

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

bet more on the flop, check turn

Re: polishing off the cannon
 

id fire again. I dont see him having a 6 here, and think AT-JT are most of his range. I hope he can fold them?