QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Sb is 12/8/5 over 150 hands


OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) by Hand Converter CG

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($64.30)
Button ($49.25)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($27.85)</font>
BB ($47.70)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($49.10)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP folds, Button folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds.

Flop: ($4.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, SB calls $3.

Turn: ($10.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($10.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??

ceck hehind b/f b/c?????

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

I see value in bet/folding here. Does SB really check with the A three times? I would bet like 5 or so here and expect a call from a ten.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Check behind- 12/8 villian is never calling with a worse hand or folding a better one (maybe he has KK once in a blue moon, but not often enough to bet) and obv any sort of bluff cr (however unlikely) is a disaster for us.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

I dont think the sample size is big enough to make such a definitive statement shaver. I think assuming he will never call with worse is wrong. He has shown absolutely no strength throughout the entire hand and youre giving him credit for KK and trip aces purely on his stats. I am going to assume KK re raises pf, so that is discounted. Is an A possible? Yes. Is it likely how the hand went down? No.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

I feel like his check means he doesn't have an A or KK. I bet like 4-6 to induce a call from JJ or a strong 10. The very small chance he c/r this river imo is outweighed by the fact that he'll call with worse occasionally.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Oh, and if this is how he plays trip aces, please make a note on this terrible player. One more thing, if he truly has trip aces, why the hell would he not bet on the river at least? What makes him assume you are going to bet again on the river? He doesnt know we have QQ, so he cant assume anything. Wow, just wow if he plays an A like this. I could even understand the flop check, but any decent player is going to raise due to draws. Assuming he doesnt, how can anyone just check the turn and river with an A? But like I said, this is still a bet/fold regardless. I doubt he is going to check raise with worse on the river, but I feel he can definitely CALL with worse.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

ok, i'll give you never is a bit strong but where are we getting value from- med pairs? when this villain calls flop what can he have? some tens, maybe some KQ, QJ and med pairs (and 88 just got there) - granted i don't think he has us beat either, but i think the value (when it exists) is quite thin and requires a good read. since if we bet the river what does a tight villain put us on (i.e what's our image)? can he call with 99 or JT? if he's prone to looking us up for one reason or another I can find a bet, but we weren't given that info...

I could be missing value in such spots, I certainly miss value on the river periodically- but I'm not yet convinced we're called ahead enough here to overcome the occasional uber-slowplay/88/bluff

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and if this is how he plays trip aces, please make a note on this terrible player. One more thing, if he truly has trip aces, why the hell would he not bet on the river at least? What makes him assume you are going to bet again on the river? He doesnt know we have QQ, so he cant assume anything. Wow, just wow if he plays an A like this. I could even understand the flop check, but any decent player is going to raise due to draws. Assuming he doesnt, how can anyone just check the turn and river with an A? But like I said, this is still a bet/fold regardless. I doubt he is going to check raise with worse on the river, but I feel he can definitely CALL with worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if he has a medium ace? I think he's playing it right. If he bets, he folds out any underpairs. Anyone who beats him is going to call or raise. If he has a weak ace and gets someone to bet here with a pair of queens, then didn't he get maximum value?

I think the only hands you're valuebetting the river that villain might have and call is JJ.

I like a checkbehind on the river.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

There are definitely hands that call us. All tens, possibly mid pairs, and JJ. All of these will call because we have also slowed down by checking the turn. By doing this, this makes our range look weaker as well, and most villains respond to river bets differently depending on the turn action.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Another question, what tens does a 12/8 CC OOP with here? (with any regularity) KTo/QTo are highly unlikely to be in his range- so what are the strong tens? K-JTs? alot of 12/8s are probably folding those OOP. no, 150 hands isn't a huge sample but 12/8 over 150 hands isn't an accident either- he's standard tight to very tight- which makes it seem to me we *can* get called by JJ/99/77/and K-JTs but certainly don't always because he has to put us on less than that- which if we look reasonable is going to be difficult.


edited to add JJ

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

I can't see him checking any A on the river, however weak it may be. The line WE'VE taken is one of weakness, so if he has an A, it's him that's gonna be trying to extract value from KK, QQ, JJ, and a 10.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see him checking any A on the river, however weak it may be. The line WE'VE taken is one of weakness, so if he has an A, it's him that's gonna be trying to extract value from KK, QQ, JJ, and a 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has an Ace rag, he's not going to bet it because any under pair should fold and any better ace will call. Betting a weak ace (unless up against a total calling station) is not good.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't see him checking any A on the river, however weak it may be. The line WE'VE taken is one of weakness, so if he has an A, it's him that's gonna be trying to extract value from KK, QQ, JJ, and a 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has an Ace rag, he's not going to bet it because any under pair should fold and any better ace will call. Betting a weak ace (unless up against a total calling station) is not good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

And Axs is at least (or more) likely to call OOP pf than KT/QT- also JJ will 3-bet alot pf making it less likely.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Shouldn' we be looking at villain's aggression factor here? It very high and he's checking the turn and river. He doesn't have an ace or KK (he would have re-raised PF with KK). I'm value betting the river here. A villain with an AF of 5 is not checking the turn and river with a made hand.

AC

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Checking here is horrible, we are leaving so much money on table by doing this consistently.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

It depends on my image, but I would most of the time bet something like 6.5.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

I really don't think he has an A here. There's only one A left in the entire deck, do you really think he's planning on c/c the entire way?

That being said, we need to value bet this hand, it's so much more likely he calls with a mid PP or a 10. If you think that he is capable of checking a weak A on the river in case he's beaten, I don't think he's bluff raising us on the river with a mid pair.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

pro, i disagree on your assessment on villain playing trip aces badly in this situation

however, his range is much wider than just an ace and is in fact more likely a T so I go ahead and bet here.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

$1 BB? Does that mean you're playing half-stacked and minraised preflop?

Easy bet on the river in that case, since he has way more Ts in his range than he would after coldcalling a normal raise OOP.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

[ QUOTE ]
pro, i disagree on your assessment on villain playing trip aces badly in this situation

however, his range is much wider than just an ace and is in fact more likely a T so I go ahead and bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

but no one is putting the villain on a realistic hand range. 12/8 is pretty darn tight for 6 max. If the person has some positional awareness, he's folding the widest part of his range here.

(1) I don't see that many hands a tight player calls OOP with that have a ten in it.
(2) I don't see most TAGs planning on calling down with middle pair

MAYBE if the OP has been getting out of line and raising like a maniac, then Villain may be calling down to light. But if all I have to go on is his stats, then its going to be a fluke if villain calls 2 streets with a pair weaker then ours.

How many people here play as tight as the villain? If you do, please list the kinds of hands you've calling preflop here. And, are you planning on calling down those hands with mid pairs?

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

kurto - true he's pretty tight preflop, but the fact
1) we checked the turn
2) his aggression factor is 5

tells me that I have to bet here to get some value from a T (which he will call since we checked the turn)

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

If you disagree with my assessment, then why? I acknowledge that we must bet here, especially after checking turn. His AF does not indicate any ace. I said it is unlikely he will have an ace. Where is this wrong?

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

If there are no more strong opinions, I'm curious to hear the results. If people don't want it posted, please pm results to me. I'm curious.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

ok thx for all the answers!! very interesting! And in fact that everybody talked about the play on the river I think it is very close. I chose the passiv one:

OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) by Hand Converter CG

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($64.30)
Button ($49.25)
<font color="#C00000">SB ($27.85)</font>
BB ($47.70)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($49.10)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, MP folds, Button folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds.

Flop: ($4.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, SB calls $3.

Turn: ($10.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($10.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $10.50
<font color="#009B00">Main Pot: $10.50, between SB and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="#FFFFFF">Pot won by SB ($10.50).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Qd Qh (two pair, aces and queens).
SB has Ad Kd (three of a kind, aces).
Outcome: SB wins $10.50. </font>

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Despite results, I just dont understand why villain has any reason to believe checking river is correct. He cant even know that if he bets it folds out weaker hands, because it doesnt necessarily have that effect. To simply say that this is correct if he has a weak ace I feel is wrong. In fact, betting the river here is probably the best move because many times people will check behind this river fearing the ace, but will call a bet because they have two pair.

PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

I think the next interesting question is, what do we think of villains play?

My .02-
(1) Preflop - If I have AK in the SB to a UTG raise - if UTG is tight, I am more inclined to call. I don't want to be OOP to a tight player who's only raising the higher end of his range. Against looser players I may reraise.
(2) I like his flop check. If he bets, most pairs are going to fold. He can get some money from a Cbet.
(3) the turn is tougher- With the third ace falling, its more likely now that we have the best hand or a tie. Hoping for another bet with an underpair is unlikely.
(4) I think if you check the turn you have to bet the river. That may seem like a steal. If the turn is checked I think its too hopeful to think an underpair bets the river. (though I could be wrong considering how many here thought he should bet the river for value.)

Is it best to check the river hoping for a bluff?

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Youre not wrong about part 4 because he has no idea what we have. He has absolutely no reason to assume we are value betting anything. We are taking this exact line with a whiffed c-bet. There is no way that I dont bet turn if I was villain, but for some reason if I didnt, then there is even less of a chance I check river.

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

if villain is good enough to put you on the sort of hand you have his river check is actually not too bad, as I'm bet/folding QQ alot in this spot, whereas I'm not going to pay off $8 on the river.

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Yes, but there are very few players who are going to be good enough to do that at micros.

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

my stats were 24/19

And one reason of my check were that I want to see the sd to get an information about him and take a note. Also he had fold to c-bet 98% so I was done with the hand after the flop because i did not put him on a 10 or ab pp after c/c with his stats.

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Well I mean if he has a stat like that, thats a very important thing to mention. Obviously then he has an A like 100% of the time. I dont assume people have 98% fold to c-bet stats.

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

pro - let's look at this from villain's perspective.

His pf and flop actions are suspect, as he had AK, but say he had something like A6s for argument's sake.

Your argument is that he played trip aces pretty badly in this spot. When the second ace comes out on turn villain should be thinking, the odds of OP having the 4th ace is slim. What is betting going to accomplish when villain can show weakness by checking and getting OP to "value-bet" or bluff the river?

Unless villain just got caught bluffing a paired board, or if he feels OP is a station, then this is a pretty obvious check since OP will fold basically everything villain beats.

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Why do you think that though? From villains point of view, why cant hero make a call with two pair here? And assuming you want to check the turn which I do understand, how is checking the river standard at all? If you have trips dont you want to extract some value from your hand? Villain has no reason to believe hero will value bet as he could be holding nothing at all, and he has no reason to believe hero will bluff unless hero has shown a tendency to do this.

Re: QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Here's a point by point of the post that I disagree with

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and if this is how he plays trip aces, please make a note on this terrible player. One more thing, if he truly has trip aces, why the hell would he not bet on the river at least?

[/ QUOTE ]
b/c we most likely don't have one - what does betting the river really accomplish for villain?

[ QUOTE ]
What makes him assume you are going to bet again on the river? He doesnt know we have QQ, so he cant assume anything.

[/ QUOTE ]
nothing, but if villain bets, he folds out almost our entire range. I think it's better that villain checks to give us a chance to bluff the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, just wow if he plays an A like this. I could even understand the flop check, but any decent player is going to raise due to draws.

[/ QUOTE ]
There are no real draws

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he doesnt, how can anyone just check the turn and river with an A? But like I said, this is still a bet/fold regardless. I doubt he is going to check raise with worse on the river, but I feel he can definitely CALL with worse.

[/ QUOTE ]
yes - as i said - i agree that we must bet the river, but that doesn't necessarily mean his play is bad if he has the third A

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think that though? From villains point of view, why cant hero make a call with two pair here?

[/ QUOTE ]
would you call with queens if villain bets the river?

[ QUOTE ]
And assuming you want to check the turn which I do understand, how is checking the river standard at all? If you have trips dont you want to extract some value from your hand? Villain has no reason to believe hero will value bet as he could be holding nothing at all, and he has no reason to believe hero will bluff unless hero has shown a tendency to do this.

[/ QUOTE ]
true - hero may not bluff, but will he ever call a bet? no. at least there is a chance that hero will bluff with air.

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

No, I would fold QQ here as a river donk is almost always a better hand. With that said, why do we assume that villain knows this?

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, I would fold QQ here as a river donk is almost always a better hand. With that said, why do we assume that villain knows this?

[/ QUOTE ]
That's the whole point! You say that villain played this badly, but obviously, since he checked the river, he didn't play badly at all!!!!

You're losing sight of the argument. You keep saying that villain played his trip aces badly. I'm saying he didn't.

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

I will admit, I was probably wrong with the turn action, I can see checking here as being correct. But, I still hold that the river check is garbage. While it is true that there is a reasonable chance a river bet from villain folds out hero, there is also a very reasonable chance that hero checks behind. Basically, we are guessing which one is less likely, a check from hero, or a fold from hero. I think a check is much more likely because hero has shown no strength at all other than pre flop and on the flop. Hero has not indicated that he is bluff happy, so then villain should not assume he will bluff here. However, hero could be capable of calling with with two pair, as many villains are at this level. Of course we know hero wont, be villain does not know this, so he should bet, hoping to extract some value from a two pair hand. Something along the lines of 1/2 pot, as this will probably get called the most. Unless I have a read on hero here, this is more than likely how I would play this hand as villain. I just think a check behind here happens like 90% of the time, that number is just a guess obviously, but Im not sure its way off either.

Re: PART TWO - QQ nl50 bet river??
 

Actually, I think the turn action can go either way to be honest. I think as a whole when villains lead turn they dont usually have very strong holdings, especially if they make this bet like 1/2 pot. I think many more people are able to call a turn lead than a river one. We all know that a river lead like that indicates lots of strength, but we dont give the same respect to a turn one. Villain could easily lead turn here with two pair.