~*~ Official NE Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts (NE @ IND) 11/04/07~*~
 

I've been thinking about this for a week or two now...

I'll start:

Pats -4.5

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Pats -3.5

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Pats -7

What they've done is - seriously - sick. Washington...I mean, wow. That's a decent NFL defense and they just got shredded...seriously..just..WOW.

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Pats -4.5

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NE -4

Also, 56.5

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Pats-6.5

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Pats -6.5 (and it will get bet to -7)

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it's between 3.5 and 4.5 depending on the site

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Pats -4.5 which they will cover.

O/U 58.5

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-3.5 Pats, O/U 54.5

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Patriots -24.5
They are a special team that can cover any spread and the bookies know it now.

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Has there ever been a 7-0 team (nevermind defending Super Bowl Champion) that is a home underdog? I would guess not. My guess is New England -8

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WSEX has a "pre-bet" market for the game with the following current odds:

NEW ENGLAND -170
INDIANAPOLIS +143

I don't know how to convert MLs into spreads, but this should give a good indication of where the spreads will likely be.

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Pats -7

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Pats -3.5/ o57

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Its up at the greek. It opened at -3/56.5. Its currently -4.5/56.5. How much will this line bet crushed is the true question.

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[ QUOTE ]
Pats -7

What they've done is - seriously - sick. Washington...I mean, wow. That's a decent NFL defense and they just got shredded...seriously..just..WOW.

[/ QUOTE ]

the score deep into the second quarter was 17-0; even a great defense, without at least some help from its offense, would have a hard time surviving NE on the road.

tlt

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ne, -3

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NE -4

Only -4, very surprising.

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I think it will be NE -7. But I think I would bet almost anything up to NE -14 based on their dominant performance today.

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Its out at Pinnacle now at -4.5 not sure what it was before

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I think it will be NE -7. But I think I would bet almost anything up to NE -14 based on their dominant performance today.

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......

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Wish I got the -3 when it opened at The Greek. Would have bet half my roll on that opening line, then the other half on Indy right before gametime. Anyone think this will get pushed past the 7?

If I get the Colts at home +7 or greater that will be my play, and probably my biggest play of the season.

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[ QUOTE ]
Wish I got the -3 when it opened at The Greek. Would have bet half my roll on that opening line, then the other half on Indy right before gametime. Anyone think this will get pushed past the 7?

If I get the Colts at home +7 or greater that will be my play, and probably my biggest play of the season.

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Actually sounds like a great idea, esp if you could get +vig, ( which was possible). I also like your other idea.

What is the nature of your newsletter and where can I subscribe to it?

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Newsletter huh? Been a long day, and not really sure the nature of your comment.

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[ QUOTE ]
Newsletter huh? Been a long day, and not really sure the nature of your comment.



[/ QUOTE ]
My heart is pure, sir. I truly like your ideas in this thread, and would like to hear more, therefore I would like to subscribe to your newsletter!

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"Subscribe to your newsletter" is a saying from like 2001 that is still sometimes employed by people who think they are witty/original/biting humorists but in reality are just goofs.

If this line stays at 4ish, Pats are not only going to be undefeated, they'll be undefeated ATS [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

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[ QUOTE ]
"Subscribe to your newsletter" is a saying from like 2001 that is still sometimes employed by people who think they are witty/original/biting humorists but in reality are just goofs.



[/ QUOTE ]
QFT

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It's a Simpsons quote from 11 years ago.

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Indy has the toughest schedule in pro football--and nothing else prepares a team for games like this: NE will not be facing an inexperienced Romo, a decimated buffalo defense, a qb-less washington.

Indy has an o-line that may well be the best pro football has ever seen.

Indy has a defense that can influence Brady: they possess speed, toughness, and youth. They are built to play on plastic, welcome to Indianapolis, and they also have an offense that will move the ball with a pace that will keep that defense rested.

Indy has home field advantage, and it will be LOUD.

Indy has a qb that is a six sigma event: this is a qb that can do anything and everything that Brady can do AND has redefined the position in ways the pundits have not yet fathomed.

Indy, imo, not only can but will beat NE: they will abuse a defense already exposed by Cleveland as lacking stamina and vulnerable to the run. I remind you, NE fell behind at Dallas in the third quarter. I remind you, Moss continues to express as much reluctance to go over the middle as ever. I remind you that NE fields an aging LB core, and this limits their effectiveness to the zones in which they set up, they cannot control the necessary real estate to keep Indy from controlling the game. I believe, the age of the LB's is the achilles tendon of NE, and it will be stretched to a dangerous degree here. NE, defensively, will be unable to deal with the weapons Manning brings to the table.

I do not think that Brady will make it through this game without a turnover or two. and the knock on brady is loss of composure when picked. the pressure that Indy will apply to the NE offense is not so much defensive, as the need to maintain the lead, on the road, against an offense that keeps pace with them, and a defense that will abandon the pretense of limiting brady, but will instead concentrate on taking the ball away, in picks and fumbles.

an interesting aspect of this game within a game of pressure, is how NE will react to waiting to get the ball? knowing that no mistakes will be allowed, none, not one, or they will be down a score.

NE will set the pace early: they have a great offense, more dangerous than at any time in the match-up history of these two teams, but that will not be enough. And Indy will keep that offense on the side line: it will require one stop to tip the scales in Indy's favor, and they will get 2-3.

last year, before the beginning of the play off series, i remarked to an acquaintance that Indy has been the best team in football for the past 8 years. This year, that knowledge seems to permeate the awareness of the players themselves. I will go so far as to say, if they win this game, and the championship, that they are the best team I have ever seen: and I saw the Steelers. Well, maybe the Steelers still. but in the modern era, most definitely the best.

The good news: I will get +170 at some point in the week on a team that should be -3 +100.

tlt

of course, if the O line turns up on the injured list this week, all goes by the board.

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[ QUOTE ]

of course, if the O line turns up on the injured list this week, all goes by the board.


[/ QUOTE ] You mean the O line that played without their starting LT today?

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the loss of one lineman does not radically affect the capability of a line; two, and/or the center, and you've got major problems.

treat it as a proverb.

tlt

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Just got back from 2 different Vegas casinos.

Both had New England -4 -110 o/u 57

This game is similar to a Superbowl type game where once they put up a number, they won't move it much unless they get swamped with NE money.

No way in hell it gets to -7

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Anybody see the O/U moving to 59+ by close? I already see a slight edge in U57 but judging by public perception of this one being a "shootout" should I wait? Thanks.

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"The good news: I will get +170 at some point in the week on a team that should be -3 +100."

Do you realize how much pats money would come in if pats were 3 point dogs? They would probably get 90%+ of the action, books have already been destroyed by NE all year 8-0 ATS.

I don't get where you say Indy has had a much tougher schedule, Indy has beat 3 teams with a record over .500, NE has beat 4 teams over .500 including pretty much the class of the NFC the Cowboys and Skins and Cleveland who I think still has a chance to win their division.

It took the biggest comeback in title game history for the colts to beat NE last time (I think the pats are going to remember this). The 2 times they beat them before that the NE secondary was in tatters, starting 4th and 5th string DB's and no Harrison for one or both games, I forget.

I think this is the first time I remember NE coming into this game healthier than the Colts, if Harrison is still out next week they can blanket Wayne and Clark and make Anthony Gonzales beat them.

Washington's D is by far the best that the Pats have faced all year, and they torched them. They also run a lot of cover 2 very similar to the colts.

Pats win by 10+ IMO

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The good news: I will get +170 at some point in the week on a team that should be -3 +100.

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$50 NE +1?

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Pats win by 10+ IMO

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$50 IND +7?

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at what odds?

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at what odds?

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1:1 ldo, I'm giving you 3 points.

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why would I want indy +7 if I think pats win by 10?

I'll take pats -7 at +150