Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

3k ME. The villain in this hand is a decent player who i've been told 'is capable of making moves.' I had been raising his blind for quite some time and the last round i raised to 21k, he 3 bet to 63k, and i 4 bet shoved for 180k even. He tanked, folded, and claimed he folded JJ.

He does little (if any, i'm not sure i've seen one yet but maybe one, in roughly 2-3 hours play time) flat calling preflop and the fact that he did def set some warning bells in my head. Though i also consider he's possibly doing it out of frustration with my 4 bet pre and often open raising.

I really don't have any information on villains betting patterns because everyone is so weak that basically nothing is seeing a flop.

This all happened with 42 players left and 40 paying.

My stack: ~260k
Villain: ~250k
Button: ~240k
BB: ~140k
I hold K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG on a 8 handed table. A good half of the table is playing extremely weak tight and not interested in messing with me without TT+/AK.

Blinds 4000/8000 with 500 ante.

Preflop: I raise to 21000, folds to CO, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB thinks it over and calls.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB checks, i bet 45,000. My plan here is if CO or button shoves i'm going to fold because i think there is absolutely no way either of these players risk their TOURNAMENT LIFE without at least top/top, but if the BB shoves he's an aggressive enough player that i can profitably call.

The CO quickly calls, button folds, BB thinks it over and folds.

Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
At this point i think CO's most probable hand is AA/AQ. I'm not sure if he'd flat call my pre flop raise with QJs/QTs, but he just might. I check intending to fold if he bets or shoves. CO checks behind.

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I think over my river decision briefly. I lead 60,000 for value, button insta shoves. Hero folds.

Additional questions:
Is check/eval better on river?
If you do check how much are you willing to call?
Would you do much different on flop/turn?

Keep in mind to these people going out on the bubble is a huge deal.

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

fwiw, i find describing and talking about live hands really hard since so many little tiny details that are hard to put into words go into your decision.

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

I believe check/ eval river is probably your best option. If he fires 60-100K into the 160Kish pot you then can call or fold. Fold is probably the better play in this situation as you have mentioned about your tables strengths.

You have already said that your table aren't interested in playing against your stack with anything less than TT+ AK and his call on the flop must have sent alarm bells off. In the unlikely event he is holding QJs/QTs he would also check the river and therefore you would win at showndown.

If you look at your play and comments btw turn and river, they contradict your thoughts on the hand.

IMO, he had pocket 4's.

Bad luck for not getting deeper in the tourney. Though you could take it out.

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

at this stage of a tourny if im not going to call a shove and i perceive my opponent to be tricky theres no way im betting the river for value, im check calling a reasonable sized bet. fwiw if opponet is sick aggro i lead river and stack off to is shove but i dont fold either

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

I don't value bet/fold the river often. Is this a play I should add to my repetoir?

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't value bet/fold the river often. Is this a play I should add to my repetoir?

[/ QUOTE ]

uhh, yes

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

to be fair it doesn't come up too often on the online tourney scene in tournaments when you're at 30bb's real quickly

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

I'd check/fold the river, Villain has done three things that are uncharacteristic/scary -- flatted pre, flatted on the flop (with no draws on board), and then checked behind on the turn (which live usually means he has a huge hand).

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

nh

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
to be fair it doesn't come up too often on the online tourney scene in tournaments when you're at 30bb's real quickly

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I can't ever see playing a hand like this online. The dynamics are just way to different.

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

you put him on AA/AQ, nothing changes, so you decide to valuetown yourself on the river? i dont get it.

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

checking flop might be better in this scenario.

after u bet, perfect.

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

easy fold on the end, and i like the way you played it. no one instashoves that river as a bluff on the bubble, especially not with those stack sizes, they just dont do it. but he'll call with worse, and i disagree with his range for flatting the flop, people can definitely show up with QJ/QT here.

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
you put him on AA/AQ, nothing changes, so you decide to valuetown yourself on the river? i dont get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like i said, it's possible he shows up with QJ/QTwwww, but yes those seemed like his most probable hands. I really wasn't comfortable calling 100k or a shove on the river, so the river is basically a blocking/value.

No like?

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you put him on AA/AQ, nothing changes, so you decide to valuetown yourself on the river? i dont get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like i said, it's possible he shows up with QJ/QTwwww, but yes those seemed like his most probable hands. I really wasn't comfortable calling 100k or a shove on the river, so the river is basically a blocking/value.

No like?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think QJ and QT bet the turn here always. At that point, there's almost as much in the pot as in Villain's stack. There's a flush draw and pair on board, you could easily have AK, he's not giving you a free card at this stage in the tournament. When he checks behind, I think his range is 90% {boat, quads}.

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

Check the river and then you have an option of calling a value bet.

Check on the turn looks like a boat IMO

Re: Poker News CUP ME Money Bubble hand
 

bet folding would normally be ok if you thought villain was capable of calling worse but here you have to trust your flop read and c/f the river