Nl600: AQs
 

Just a check up if this is okay..
button 44/20/3, Co 40/24/3.2


Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1081.3
CO: $433.8
Button: $176
SB: $158.25
Hero: $600

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $18</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $105</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($333, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $78</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $495</font>

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

i cant think of single hand he folds.

Post deleted by Ryan Beal
 

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

terrrriibleeee

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

i did something similar a couple days ago
i regretted it basically as soon as i hit the raise button cause it occured to me i probably don't even get AK to fold

it's so terrible it makes me cringe

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

yea. Didnt think too much. outs == ARR-IN. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-A.S

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

you have about 35% equity so it looks ok..

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

high variance breakeven or -ev.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Some of the posts here are way off IMO. This can be bad but is rarely terrible, and against donks who make daft feeling bets this can be quite good.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Some of the posts here are way off IMO. This can be bad but is rarely terrible, and against donks who make daft feeling bets this can be quite good.

[/ QUOTE ]

But is this move correct more than 50% of the time? Probably not....

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.

Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411
Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8)
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6

Equity when called*:
*The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot.

Board: 2c 5d 3h
Dead:

Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s }

Let X = probability villain folds.

EV of Shove is neutral when:
0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8)
X = -5%.

So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers:
X = 0%, EV = 17.91
X = 10%, EV = 57.22
X = 20%, EV = 96.53

So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero!

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Im fine with this. At worst this is marginally -EV, Id prob play it the same.

FYI I think the above range is a little too tight also given stats. This certainly isnt terrible and I challenge others to provide evidence otherwise.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.

Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411
Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8)
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6

Equity when called*:
*The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot.

Board: 2c 5d 3h
Dead:

Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s }

Let X = probability villain folds.

EV of Shove is neutral when:
0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8)
X = -5%.

So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers:
X = 0%, EV = 17.91
X = 10%, EV = 57.22
X = 20%, EV = 96.53

So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero!

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow. Thanks for you effort and for the info :P.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

No problem. Found it weird when some were saying this is terrible, because the pot is so big already and villains don't have full stacks.

So now that we're essentially pot-committed, is bet/call or just straight shoving better than ch/r AI?

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Looks ok to me, not sure why everyone hates it. Fish will sometimes do stupid things, and he certainly folds sometimes.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Yeah I think shoving or folding are the only plays. I think his hand looks like a big pair, but if you can get him to fold like one out of five times on this board (or if he can pull this bs with KQ or worse) than this is a pretty easy shove.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

His bet sizing looks like he just put you on AK and is trying to induce a float or a shove... pretty sure you're about to get owned here.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

I like a flop shove here. You may have 10 outs that are good, and bigger stacked opponent only has pot sized bet left.

Does anyone else like flop shove?

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

uh...

a play CAN be +EV and terrible AT THE SAME TIME

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

Wtf at this being terrible. Villain has a hand here like close to never and I dont want to let him suckout. Raising here is totally standard although we shouldn`t shove really.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

if you insist on doing this just shove the flop

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wtf at this being terrible. Villain has a hand here like close to never and I dont want to let him suckout. Raising here is totally standard although we dont necessarily have to puah.

[/ QUOTE ]


Why do you think you're folding out pairs vs this 40/20?

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you insist on doing this just shove the flop

[/ QUOTE ]
agreed. This isn't a flop where you wanna price him in. open shove seems fine imo.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

I just saw I misread the hand. I thought we had position and he donks into us. This changes things as we are behind a lot more whwn he bets like this. Checking to induce a bluff looks good. Now that he bet so small a call is probably in order although we`ll get into tough spots a lot so yea - i still like a raise.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

MH,

What about sets and 44/66 in villan's range? That would swing it so he has to fold some of the time for +0EV. Im saying this is close to breakeven play, but good for meta game!

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.

Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411
Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8)
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6

Equity when called*:
*The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot.

Board: 2c 5d 3h
Dead:

Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s }

Let X = probability villain folds.

EV of Shove is neutral when:
0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8)
X = -5%.

So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers:
X = 0%, EV = 17.91
X = 10%, EV = 57.22
X = 20%, EV = 96.53

So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is some wishful thinking. There are some hands that you left out that may call. IMO, this guy is never folding here with his stack. Let's see the numbers

<font color="blue">Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
83,160 evaluations, 84 hole card combos

Board: 2c 5d 3h

Wins Ties Equity
24.17% 2.83% 27.01% ( AdQd )
70.16% 2.83% 72.99% ( AA-22,A4,A5 ) </font>

0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.25 - 328.8) <font color="red">X = 16%</font>.

If I remove A4 and A5,

<font color="blue">Wins Ties Equity
29.18% 1.46% 30.64% ( AdQd )
67.91% 1.46% 69.36% ( AA-22 ) </font>

0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.3 - 328.8) <font color="red">X = 7%</font>.

So, if the guy is never folding (which is mostly true considering he is committed), this is clearly -EV. If you really wanted to do this, like some one said, better push the flop simply.

Re: Nl600: AQs
 

i can never see folding here with this stack sizes and i dont see why he can never fold after leading that weak. he wont do it often though. other option would be to call after his bet was so small, i dont see how this can be good though.