Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Well, it finally happened.

I got cut off.

Completely.

My bookie won't even answer my phone calls, and it's a big problem, but that's something for myself and my investors to deal with. I don't really have any current outs online, but I'm working on it

As it turns out, this is a crap week for teasers anyways, as the only half-decent combo is Buff +3(-125)/+9 and SF +2.5/+8.5.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

That sucks. Sorry to hear that.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Meaning he still owes you money or just isn't taking any more bets?

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Hope you got paid. Your 25k+ windfall last week makes for a nasty situation on top of how well you've been running.

I"m on Bills/Niners +9/+9, going to get on Rams/Niners once Rams becomes uncircled.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Meaning he still owes you money or just isn't taking any more bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Meaning he still owes you money or just isn't taking any more bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
Both, although I wasn't planning on betting more until I got some $$$.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Please be sure to clear cookies and type in name of sportsbook directly when signing up for an online sportsbook. Just in case on the outside chance you might of found one of my cookie stuffs for my affiliate account on some site I've worked with [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I don't want you as a player as I'm sure no other affiliate does either. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
With that said good luck man - thanks for all the valuable picks you've posted so far.

Actually a good idea, sign up with one of those forum spammers somewhere.. it will deserve them right [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Man i would feel so sick. I remember someone asking you before why you didnt use one of these large online sites as opposed to a local guy, but I forget your rationale.
From your post it sounds like you were expecting this, or at least not totally shocked it happened.

What recourse do you have? Any legal means at all?

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Man i would feel so sick. I remember someone asking you before why you didnt use one of these large online sites as opposed to a local guy, but I forget your rationale.
From your post it sounds like you were expecting this, or at least not totally shocked it happened.

What recourse do you have? Any legal means at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

im curious actually as to why you don't use an online sportsbook, i never saw the post you are speaking of. unless they offer better lines without knowing it it seems like it can only end in something like this

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Fwiw, the bookie owes me quite a bit too. Are there any online sports books that Americans can use that offer even money? Also, is it fairly normal to walk into a casino and get -110 on 6 pt teasers? Do I just walk up to the cashier and tell them I want a 6 pt teaser with x and x or do I have to do something else? Thanks a lot.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Sorry to hear that Daliman, hope you get your money.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

I rr'd the Niners, Rams, and Bills. I got them all on the +3 at bodog, all have negative odds > -110 on pinny if they were +3, and two are home dogs (Niners is esp. good).

GOGOGOGOGOGOO

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Man i would feel so sick. I remember someone asking you before why you didnt use one of these large online sites as opposed to a local guy, but I forget your rationale.
From your post it sounds like you were expecting this, or at least not totally shocked it happened.

What recourse do you have? Any legal means at all?

[/ QUOTE ]
The guy paid me ~35k last year no problems at all. I went with him because my friend who is a consistent loser with him referred me to him, and he offered me +100 teasers and all ties push. Not having to put $$$ up front was of use also. Recourse is about what you'd think it is, depending on how interested you are in getting your $$$ back.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Rams/Niners is about nuetral ev for those that want to get their action bets/kicks in

Rams are +3 -115 v Browns (+107)
Niners are +1 +107 v Saints (-115) both on Pinny

given how well the home dog as done as a subset, I was fine with doing a 2-teamer of Rams +9 and Niners +7.5 at -100 for some nuetral ev action

EDIT: Rams now +3 -120 v -3 +112 Browns on Pinny

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

looks like 49ers gonna screw us again

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Wow, frickin niners... and i went heavy on their part of my rr too...

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
looks like 49ers gonna screw us again

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still hoping they pull a Houston, if not there goes half my teasers

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Dali are you done with posting of picking wongs until u get your bookie situation sqaured away?

I know any one of us can spot the wongs now, but the one time you dont officially post SF doesn't cover!

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dali are you done with posting of picking wongs until u get your bookie situation sqaured away?

I know any one of us can spot the wongs now, but the one time you dont officially post SF doesn't cover!

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not the Wong Messiah for nothing!

Anyways, I am looking into other options, probably going into 3-teamers online. Besides, I can't leave my followers without a messiah, can I?

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

I want to describe to your newsletter behind the scenes to find out what happens with your bookie. Real life Vegas stories get me moist /Grannymae

In all seriousness, I wish you luck in getting what's owed to you.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Good luck.

In 2002, all the local bookies in Boston just about hopped it outta town after the Pats won 'cos they couldn't pay out all the ML wagers they took v the Rams.

It happens.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Wow, that's a great story. Any more info or details?


[ QUOTE ]
Good luck.

In 2002, all the local bookies in Boston just about hopped it outta town after the Pats won 'cos they couldn't pay out all the ML wagers they took v the Rams.

It happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

ocd: virtually all the bookies left town. They took action on Pats ML they couldn't pay out at 5-1 or whatever it was. All the locals were on NWE. Etc.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Yeah, I was able to figure all that out from your original post. I was looking for details like: friends of yours who got stiffed for big bucks, bookies who got beat up by the mob, etc...

Never mind...

[ QUOTE ]
ocd: virtually all the bookies left town. They took action on Pats ML they couldn't pay out at 5-1 or whatever it was. All the locals were on NWE. Etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Dali - Quick question regarding amount of total teasers.

Here is my example: This week I will be placing the teaser bets on Saturday. The lines have been rather volatile than normal so depending on where they end up I could have between 5 and 7 wongable, bongable, splongable games.

My question is how many teases do you make and with how many teams?

So lets say that 5 games are wongable. By adding 5c2 + 5c3 + 5c4 + 5c5 = 26. I can make 26 totals teases ranging from 10 two team teases to one 5 team tease. With 6 games the total becomes 57 and with 7 games it would obviously be more.

So when the total number of wongable games is decided do you make every single type of teaser bet from two teams to the one final large one?

Also, this week Pitt is going to be at -9 and I will wong them at 6.5 Should I make all the wongs 6.5 or only the ones with Pitt in them, or make a separate subset for these "reach" wongs.

Also, I dont recall if you do one large wong on all the games. How do you feel about this large type of teaser?

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Ugh [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I've been lurking in these threads kinda amazed at how profitable this seems to be - that bites.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dali - Quick question regarding amount of total teasers.

Here is my example: This week I will be placing the teaser bets on Saturday. The lines have been rather volatile than normal so depending on where they end up I could have between 5 and 7 wongable, bongable, splongable games.

My question is how many teases do you make and with how many teams?

So lets say that 5 games are wongable. By adding 5c2 + 5c3 + 5c4 + 5c5 = 26. I can make 26 totals teases ranging from 10 two team teases to one 5 team tease. With 6 games the total becomes 57 and with 7 games it would obviously be more.

So when the total number of wongable games is decided do you make every single type of teaser bet from two teams to the one final large one?

Also, this week Pitt is going to be at -9 and I will wong them at 6.5 Should I make all the wongs 6.5 or only the ones with Pitt in them, or make a separate subset for these "reach" wongs.

Also, I dont recall if you do one large wong on all the games. How do you feel about this large type of teaser?

[/ QUOTE ]
As many teasers as you can afford to properly place given your bankroll, I highly recommend placing. I was actually going to mess around with some #'s, (not my strong suit...) and try to figure out some sort of kelly-based approximation for proper bet sizing given different amounts of similar EV bets. It gets really complicated, and I'm not well versed in kelly beyond the basics. Also, I don't Kelly since I have outside income sources from SB.

That said, last year I was doing 5% of my betting BR per 2 teamer and 2% per 4. Both were grossly overbetting, but again, outside source. Betting ~260% of my BR 2 weeks ago would have been fun....

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I was able to figure all that out from your original post. I was looking for details like: friends of yours who got stiffed for big bucks, bookies who got beat up by the mob, etc...

Never mind...

[ QUOTE ]
ocd: virtually all the bookies left town. They took action on Pats ML they couldn't pay out at 5-1 or whatever it was. All the locals were on NWE. Etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Many friends of mine got stiffed for big bucks. The WallSt trader types are apt to put $2k to $5k or more on a big game. Collectively, guys I worked directly with probably got stiffed outta > $100k.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I've been lurking in these threads kinda amazed at how profitable this seems to be - that bites.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah...using a kelly betting strategy and estimating each teaser leg as coming through 73% of the time, you're bankroll should still be growing at by 0.02% on each bet at -110 odds

in a conservative case, that's beautiful


but, daliman has been running extra HAWT

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Dali, another question. For examples I will use Denver and San Diego. For a substantial length of time this week San Diego was -7.5 and Denver was +2.5, which are wongs.

However, they have currently been pushed to -7 and +3, respectively.

Can one tease the games to -1 and +9 or are the lines now moving to their "true" value so they were never wongs to begin with? If you had teased them at their earlier lines would this movement suggest you actually made an -EV bet?

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dali, another question. For examples I will use Denver and San Diego. For a substantial length of time this week San Diego was -7.5 and Denver was +2.5, which are wongs.

However, they have currently been pushed to -7 and +3, respectively.

Can one tease the games to -1 and +9 or are the lines now moving to their "true" value so they were never wongs to begin with? If you had teased them at their earlier lines would this movement suggest you actually made an -EV bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Except in very rare cases, I would not bother teasing these games anymore. Let's take the SD game as an example:
if you believe that the "true" line on the SD game is -7, then it is not a wong.
if you believe that the "true" line on the SD game is -7.5, then if you can get -7, betting straight already has value.

According to SSB, I believe the break even point for a half point on the 7 is 15 cents. So this bet would already be +EV if it was accurately handicapped to -7.5. I'm not sure how that would compare with a teaser, but I would suspect betting straight is better or comparable since you aren't getting that 15c in the teaser anymore.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Except in very rare cases, I would not bother teasing these games anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]
Or if the line moved again before Sunday.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

I actually find the alternative interesting. I brought it up in another thread and I didn't feel that it was adequately answered:
The SD game opened at -7 and it appeared that it moved to -7.5 simply to balance the lines/increase the edge of the books. SD appears to be BSPish this week. In that case, I'm leaning toward the game being accurately handicapped at -7 rather than -7.5. Wonging the -7.5 seems bad to me. The fact that road favs are often bet up may account for why they historically have been the worst performing wong subset.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dali, another question. For examples I will use Denver and San Diego. For a substantial length of time this week San Diego was -7.5 and Denver was +2.5, which are wongs.

However, they have currently been pushed to -7 and +3, respectively.

Can one tease the games to -1 and +9 or are the lines now moving to their "true" value so they were never wongs to begin with? If you had teased them at their earlier lines would this movement suggest you actually made an -EV bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
Except in very rare cases, I would not bother teasing these games anymore. Let's take the SD game as an example:
if you believe that the "true" line on the SD game is -7, then it is not a wong.
if you believe that the "true" line on the SD game is -7.5, then if you can get -7, betting straight already has value.

According to SSB, I believe the break even point for a half point on the 7 is 15 cents. So this bet would already be +EV if it was accurately handicapped to -7.5. I'm not sure how that would compare with a teaser, but I would suspect betting straight is better or comparable since you aren't getting that 15c in the teaser anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]
What he said. Wongs are meant to beat sharp lines. You may still have a +EV bet, but less so.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

What lines open at are almost completely immaterial.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

OK, let's try again then.
[ QUOTE ]
I actually find the alternative interesting. I brought it up in another thread and I didn't feel that it was adequately answered:
The SD game opened at -7 and it appeared that it moved to -7.5 simply to balance the lines/increase the edge of the books. SD appears to be BSPish this week. In that case, I'm leaning toward the game being accurately handicapped at -7 rather than -7.5. Wonging the -7.5 seems bad to me. The fact that road favs are often bet up may account for why they historically have been the worst performing wong subset

[/ QUOTE ]

Now if the part in bold is correct then I would agree with you that this is probably not a good teaser selection. You would be giving up an extra 1/2 point on the least profitable subset(road favorites)for BS teasers. But...

What leads you to believe the line moved to 7.5 for any reason other than action on San Diego? Sports Insights latest numbers show SD getting 81% of the bets which makes the line move totally logical in which case SD is a wong teaser play. Assuming the line holds of course.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sports Insights latest numbers show SD getting 81% of the bets which makes the line move totally logical in which case SD is a wong teaser play. Assuming the line holds of course.

[/ QUOTE ]
The fact that the line opened at -7 and appears to have moved based on the action is exactly why I do not like this teaser play. It seems they increased from -7 to -7.5 to balance the books, etc. based on overwhelming action on SD. Perhaps I'm completely mistaken here, but it seems like I'm teasing a -7.5 line that should really be at -7.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sports Insights latest numbers show SD getting 81% of the bets which makes the line move totally logical in which case SD is a wong teaser play. Assuming the line holds of course.

[/ QUOTE ]
The fact that the line opened at -7 and appears to have moved based on the action is exactly why I do not like this teaser play. It seems they increased from -7 to -7.5 to balance the books, etc. based on overwhelming action on SD. Perhaps I'm completely mistaken here, but it seems like I'm teasing a -7.5 line that should really be at -7.

[/ QUOTE ]

Logistx, I think this is all based on an individual's subjective analysis on each game. By that I mean if your projection favored SD by 7.5 or more, you would consider them a wongable play regardless of opening line. The opposite applies here too where even if the line moved to 7.5 and became "wongable" and you thought the true line stood closer to the dog, you wouldn't wong regardless because there is more value in taking +7.5 than would be to wong down to -1.5 with another play having to be made even if the other play were wongable based on your subjective analysis. I am agreeing with you essentially and I know you've thought of this but its honestly just a subjective topic as far as wongable teasers go. A wong to one man may not be a wong to the next, based on perspective of each.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

I think you're right. I guess my point was that if wongs are meant to beat sharp lines then this doesn't appear to be a sharp line since it's moving based on action and not on proper handicapping. However, that is based on my perception which may not correlate with some one else's or even be correct.

Re: Daliman\'s Wong Teasers, Season Deux: Week 8
 

Well its not like this is a move from 6.5 to 7, in that case I would say that 81% of the action being on SD would not suffice for a big move like that to the 7. However from 7 to 7.5, I would say 81% is pretty good evidence that this is not as +EV a wong as people would like it to be. That being said I guess my conclusion is that I think people just WANT this game to be wongable.