preflop
 

30/20 opens in CO and 35/25 3-bets either otb or in sb. What hands, if any, do you cold call?

Obv to answer this question starts with just stoving the ranges but how much equity do you need to call and where do you start capping? What is difference btwn the 3-bettor being sb and button? fwiw i'm pretty sure i'm too tight here.

Re: preflop
 

Id never cold call anything. Also, there should be no difference between the 3 bet coming for the sb vs the 3 bet coming from the button.

Re: preflop
 

idk, 88ish? KQs/AJs? How good is the 30/20? Like will he actually fold to a cap some percentage of the time?

Re: preflop
 

advantages of calling in that spot:
- disguises your hand strength if you do it with a reasonable range (which you should in this spot given expected hand ranges from villains)
- you gain extra info about the original raisers hand
- if it doesn't get capped, you have good position to protect your hand on the flop
- if it does get capped, you effectively have the button (get to act after everyone)

disadvantages:
- having the original raise fold is usually a very good result for you
- miss a bit of equity when you are ahead of their ranges
- maybe some extra FE if you cap


I call here much more than I cap fwiw but that is vs LAGs with even wider ranges who never fold for 2 more. I don't play at tables with multiple LAGTAGs to my right

Re: preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
idk, 88ish? KQs/AJs? How good is the 30/20? Like will he actually fold to a cap some percentage of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

First answer the question assuming that everybody knows each other's stats and knows that they will play nearly perfectly vs. each other's ranges (except perhaps slight adjustments due to position).

Then you can make changes according to how you think they might react in real life.

In other words, the CO opener will not be folding very much. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: preflop
 

yourface,
what do you do with j8s, A7o, 33, k9o?
How about 55, A9o, qts, kjo?

Re: preflop
 

vs the dumb LAGs I usually play with I would fold the first set and call the second set

messing around with stove a bit that first set is damn close though in terms of hot and cold equity. I should think about calling more hands when I have a significant postflop advantage

Re: preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
vs the dumb LAGs I usually play with I would fold the first set and call the second set

messing around with stove a bit that first set is damn close though in terms of hot and cold equity. I should think about calling more hands when I have a significant postflop advantage

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i was thinking the first set was borderline call and second set borderline cap. but again this isn't what i do in real life. I am getting crushed last few days so it's hard to be objective.

Re: preflop
 

I am assuming hero is BB?

I'd play

22, A7s, ATo, K9s, KQo, QTs, JTs

A'd cap monsters like 99+, AQo, AJs, KQs. Maybe KQo

I have no idea whether this is right. But its what I do.

I think there is some merit to just calling some hands as you get to see whether CO caps or not. This defines his range a bit more as he should be capping JJ+, AQs, AKo at the very least.


I call the low pp's for set value cuz Stox tells me to, so again to spare myself to defend the play. Take it up with him if you disagree on whether thats +EV.

Re: preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]

I call the low pp's for set value cuz Stox tells me to, so again to spare myself to defend the play. Take it up with him if you disagree on whether thats +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

stox being great and all, i think we shouldn't quote him at every opportunity. i doubt he has more data on this than any other player with 300k+ hands.

Re: preflop
 

You can also try and find the thread in MHSSH or high stakes where he defends the play. Its actually quite interesting

To me

Stox = convincing evidence

Untill I am presented with results or strong evidence that suggest the opposite I am gonna do what players better than me tells me to.


Stop folding yo!

Re: preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can also try and find the thread in MHSSH or high stakes where he defends the play. Its actually quite interesting

To me

Stox = convincing evidence

Untill I am presented with results or strong evidence that suggest the opposite I am gonna do what players better than me tells me to.


Stop folding yo!

[/ QUOTE ]

aren't you the same guy who disagreed with stox's preflop recommendations as being too tight? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can also try and find the thread in MHSSH or high stakes where he defends the play. Its actually quite interesting

To me

Stox = convincing evidence

Untill I am presented with results or strong evidence that suggest the opposite I am gonna do what players better than me tells me to.


Stop folding yo!

[/ QUOTE ]

aren't you the same guy who disagreed with stox's preflop recommendations as being too tight? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but I cant go lower than 22 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


On a serious note. This is another spot where we either cant extract the empirical reults or will just never get enough observations.


But I have one other loosish observation.

Over that 1½ years or so I have regularly proposed "too loose" preflop play and been berated by various posters. Usually you get useless one liners and nobody has ever presented any evidence proving that their "tight is right" nit approach is optimal. Then I tell people I have good results with it and 2 weeks later I debate the same play with another guy...


I make the plays I do, I dont claim to know that all of them are +EV. I know some of them are. Like expanding my OTB range quite a bit past Stox proposed range or calling suited junk in BB getting 5:1 or opening KJo UTG. These are all plays I have been told several times CAN NOT be +EV and yet they are all with a winrate significant larger than 0 on a 98% level...

The annoying part is when people who dont really have any proof of their POW tells you its -EV. In particular when they just use them silly 1-liners.

Seriously. STOP FOLDING!

Oh and i know I am coming off as a crybaby now

Re: preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]

I make the plays I do, I dont claim to know that all of them are +EV. I know some of them are. Like expanding my OTB range quite a bit past Stox proposed range or calling suited junk in BB getting 5:1 or opening KJo UTG. These are all plays I have been told several times CAN NOT be +EV and yet they are all with a winrate significant larger than 0 on a 98% level...


[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, this is my kind of evidence. much better than "cuz stox says so".

[ QUOTE ]
On a serious note. This is another spot where we either cant extract the empirical reults or will just never get enough observations.


[/ QUOTE ]

if we never get enough observations to determine the correct play in a particular situation, that means it doesn't affect your winrate and so it doesn't matter what you do in that situation.

more precisely, if two good players with 300k+ hands each who follow different strategies in a particular situation compare their results and the difference is not statistically significant then either:

1. the ev for the strategies are almost the same, OR
2. one strategy is better, but the situation happens so rarely that it doesn't affect your winrate in any significant way.

Re: preflop
 

oink,
i think you are too tight in this spot [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
oink,
i think you are too tight in this spot [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew you'd say it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What are hands are you playing that I am folding?

Re: preflop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
oink,
i think you are too tight in this spot [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew you'd say it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

What are hands are you playing that I am folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

you play:
22, A7s, ATo, K9s, KQo, QTs, JTs

Currenly I don't play 22, but I play ~ a notch lower on all the A's and I often play qjo, kjo, kto.

According to stove I have pretty damn good equity with a bunch of other hands--even j8s! I'm starting to think it makes sense to at least call with the 3-bettors entire range and maybe even add a few hands. I don't know if whether he's the button or sb makes a difference cuz there's more in the pot when he's the button and his range is usually ~ the same.

This stuff is all speculation, so if others have opinions/data, please come forward!

Re: preflop
 

I think it matters a bit whether the 3-bettor is OTB or SB. As you said there is a little more dead money in the pot when he is OTB, however you will more often be able to get position postflop when he is SB.

How much eq exactly does J8s have? Did you consider that if CO has a 35-40% range and if he caps TT, AJs, AQo, KQs then it will get capped 1 in 8 or 7. (Capping range is about 5% of total hands).

So Hero's odds are gonna be ~ 0.13*9:3 + 0.87*7:2 ~ 3.4:1. (Ok that had a smaller effect on our odds than I expected for some reason.)


This is an interesting topic. As you move up you get yourself into a whole lot of these spots and never calling anything is a clear mistake in my games. I wouldnt be surprised if calling J8s or 65s is +EV