AK
 

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

River: (6.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero...

If he had like AT, A6, TT, flush, i'd expect him to raise on the flop or turn. But here it looks like he thinks Ax is good enough. Put in a 3bet ?

Re: AK
 

AQ 3bet

Re: AK
 

i 3bet and cry when capped

Re: AK
 

grunch

I'd 3 bet, he raises the trun with all the hands you mention. Although he could have 44 and waited to see if the flush came in. Still a 3 bet IMO.

Re: AK
 

If he can only have trip aces (i.e. A2s+, A6o+) then you should raise, but it's thin. If there is a significant chance he's slowplaying here you should call. For example, if you add 44 to his range, in addition to all of the aces, you should just call.

Re: AK
 

I think AJ and AQ is likely also here. Im tempted to raise and fold to a cap but i don't know if that's right because of the size of the pot.

Call seems weak tho.

I think call and R/F is pretty equal in value here IMO. In the battle i would be calling here.

Re: AK
 

Villain's line is really weird.

AT, A4, A6, 44, TT would all probably put in some more action at some point with the monotone flop there. Although a weakling could play AT/A4/A6 like this in fear of a ready made flush.

What would be the point of raising here with AX, X &lt; T? Only better hands or hands that split will call - and none of them fold. So that'd leave AQ or AJ that think they are good now or a monster.

To me this looks like either a slowplayed flush (something like KQs-KTs, QJ-QT or JT) or (AK/)AQ/AJ or sometimes AT/A4/A6. Slowplayed flush would only be worried about a higher flush and AA/AT/TT. A6/A4 do not open that often from UTG.

I don't feel confident enough to 3-bet in fear of a cap I wouldn't find a fold to.

Re: AK
 

in the games i play, i call the river and get shown a stupid flush a lot, and AT sometimes. ymmv, of course, but i would just call.

Re: AK
 

I'd call, unkwown villain could easily have played a flopped flush this way thinking it's the best way to get your mobnies, i.e. you are most likely to call a raise on the river. Pocket 10's could play the same way. Also, he's raising a PFR who bet the whole way on a paired board with 3 to a flush. I don't think we're good the 2/3 times you need to be to raise-call. If we can raise-fold maybe, but I don't like it.

Re: AK
 

If he was feeling weak with a flopped set or AT, now he likes his hand. He could also be weak with a baby flush, and was holding out in case a 4th [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fell. He certainly could have weaker trips a lot, or maybe a retarded hand, on a bluff-raise attempt. However, I think this is one of those situations where you should 3-bet only if you feel comfortable folding to a cap. And that sounds like spew to me, so I would call.

Re: AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think we're good the 2/3 times you need to be to raise-call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this reference to how many times one has to have the best hand. Where does the math come from? How do you get to a 2/3's win percentage?

Thanks for an answer.

Re: AK
 

An approximation, if villain is behind and calls we win one, if he is ahead and raises and we call we lose 2.

vilain could also fold and we gain nothing, call with a better hand and raise with a worse one, but latter two are unlikely and cancel each other.

Re: AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think we're good the 2/3 times you need to be to raise-call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this reference to how many times one has to have the best hand. Where does the math come from? How do you get to a 2/3's win percentage?

[/ QUOTE ]

let P be the probability that we have the best hand.

when we raise with the best hand and get called, we win 1bb. when we raise with the worst hand and get reraised and call, we lose 2bb. breakeven is when our EV (the sum of these possibilities) = 0. so:

P - (2 * (1-P) = 0
P - 2 + 2P = 0
3P - 2 = 0
3P = 2
P = 2/3

hth!

Re: AK
 

Thanks to both of you!