Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

Background: 30 people left, 27 get paid in the Caesar's 10k. I am chipleader, Zeejustin knows me as Psyduck from online. I think we're 8 handed or so. Effective stacks 300k (I have 370k, and am chipleader and he's in top 3). He pretty much knows how aggressive I am preflop since I've opened more than my fair share of pots since coming to the table, and I've told him that I've been 3-betting people with T2o and such, but I dunno what he thinks about how I play postflop. He and I have not tangled in a pot together since I arrived at the table. From what I can tell, he has been playing fairly tight/aggro as well, he's not opening too loose and I haven't seen him double barrel anyone yet. On to the hand:

He opens from CO to 11k (blinds 2k/4k w/ 1k ante), and I flat in SB with JcTc. BB who is fairly tight folds. Flop is T92r one club. I check. He bets out 16k. I call fairly quickly.

Turn Jh, putting out two hearts. I check. He fires out 35k fairly fast (note that timing tells are useless against someone like him for the most part, although maybe he has to think a little bit more with a hand like KK, deciding whether he is playing for pot control or for stacks).

How do you play on from here? If you guys know results, please do not post them.

If you c/r and he calls, what is your plan on specific rivers (4 to a straight / heart hits / board pairs), since I am assuming people are calling his push if you c/r big enough. If you c/c, what is your plan on specific rivers again?

I think this is a fairly interesting hand.


edit: thoughts on preflop and flop play are welcome too! I actually think preflop is a call vs most people on earth but a fold vs the top 0.05% MTTers

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I fold pre vs ZJ but yea vs most it's a call.

Turn i likely CR to 120k and if he calls jam safe rivers. I think check calling also doesn't suck followed by a lead on safe rivers and prolly chk/calling the scare ones.

Edit: And if i CR turn i don't think i'm not folding to shove. But i mean idk, live poker is hard and so much comes down to flow at the table as far as what the right move is.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

Definately don't like the call preflop, a reraise would be better but its still a fold imo. you've got position on him all day why play small pots OOP vs. probably the best player at the table?

also, i think it would be pretty tough to get all in with the best hand on the turn. i probably calldown to avoid compounding the mistake you've made by calling pre

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

PF: as they said, I dont see why I would get involved with ZJ where there have to easier targets especially OOP
Turn play: Has ZJ seen you been aggressive after pf? Against most opponents live I would be c/c since I tend to play more passive live.
Pot size seems to be ~100k when its your decision to call. Making the pot 130k. Now I think I am c/c most rivers. If the river comes a J or a T I think I will be firing like 70-80k. I think that c/c is the same as the c/r value and I think that you will get him to fire away with worse hands. Now if the river comes a AKQ9 I think its really on how you feel the hand is going (one of those reads things)

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I think I b/3b the turn. It doesn't seem great, but neither does cr or c/c
I might c/c donk river as well
Edit: To expand more I don't think your hand fairs that well vs. his range which calls or shoves after you c/r the turn.
By checking the turn he can peel with a lot of medium strength pairs/draws that still have good equity. If he raises the turn I'm not crazy about getting it in, but I figure he can have OPs/ combo draws enough of the time.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

no way do I fold pre.
I definitely advocate c/c turn.

I really want to be able to bet/fold total blank rivers. If we lead 75k on the river and he shoves, it'd be a pretty awesome bluff, but the stronger fact is that he can't really shove worse for value, so we're not accidentally getting pushed off the best hand. I'm also fine with c/c river blanks.

c/f 9 c/c blank heart c/f 2 c/c???? A (really unsure my plan on random ace, we probably only beat a 3 barrell bluff if he bets on the ace, and actually maybe we should be folding on it)

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I don't think you can fold pre-flop. If he'd been opening more from LP, I'd like 3-betting, but as described call seems good. Flop is good, but against a smart deep stack player like ZJ I'd rather lead turn, since he'll check behind a lot of stuff you don't want him to check.

As played, I'm kind of inclined to call and check-call anything but a Q river. I've never played with ZJ, so I don't know how aggressively he would play one pair with a draw versus without on this turn, but I don't see him making many mistakes against a c/r. He'll fold his bluffs, he'll fold worse hands without redraws, he'll shove hands that beat you and maybe the occasional worse two pair, and he'll call and be tricky on the river if he has a big draw or pair + draw.

Check-calling such a drawy turn is repping something like Q9 on your part, and since a substantial part of his range against you on this turn ought to be bluffs/semi-bluffs, underrepping your hand should encourage him to fire again on the river. And I would call an A river, because I'd imagine he's capable of betting AK for value even on this board given your passive line.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I don't think you ever get his stack in on the turn with you being ahead since I think his minimum stackoff range is a set, and when I read the hand I immediately thought to myself 'wow, have to check/call that turn.'

So I would check/call turn and lead the river and dump it to a raise.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I like the flat call preflop with this hand. You could also reraise, but I wouldn't fold. This is live with a big ante and you have an aggressive big stack raising pretty much any two on the bubble. Saying don't get involved with a strong player OOP makes no sense when you look at the situation. Also, I would not assume Justin is the strongest player at the table on the bubble of a major tournament.

On the turn, I would check/call. Reevaluate on the river, with various possible approaches.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

Pf w/e call 3bet jsut dont fold plz. Even though ZJ is very good and your oop your hand is just way too strong to fold here.
My first instinct on the turn is to bet. If he raises I'm not sure exactly what I do depends on raise size, timing, live reads etc.. even though I'm sure ZJ won't give much away.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the flat call preflop with this hand. You could also reraise, but I wouldn't fold. This is live with a big ante and you have an aggressive big stack raising pretty much any two on the bubble. Saying don't get involved with a strong player OOP makes no sense when you look at the situation. Also, I would not assume Justin is the strongest player at the table on the bubble of a major tournament.

On the turn, I would check/call. Reevaluate on the river, with various possible approaches.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it's a call, but OP indicated ZJ had not been particularly aggressive with his pre-flop raising, although you're also correct that this is a spot where he's probably on a wide range.

Why wouldn't you assume Justin is the strongest at the table?

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

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Why wouldn't you assume Justin is the strongest at the table?

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I really don't know how strong Justin is relative to Fischman or Singer or whatever, but here is the final table of the event. At this stage of a major tournament, you could easily have Ivey, Negreanu, or some other big name live pro at your table.

Seat No. 1 – Alex Bolotin - $222,000
Seat No. 2 – David Singer - $304,000
Seat No. 3 – Justin Bonomo - $702,000
Seat No. 4 – Jose Valdes - $182,000
Seat No. 5 – Vivek "Psyduck" Rajkumar - $248,000
Seat No. 6 – George Unich - $168,000
Seat No. 7 – Scott Fischman - $733,000
Seat No. 8 – Tony Cousineau - $816,000
Seat No. 9 – Kido Pham - $913,000

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I don't quite think Scott 'Captain Open Limp' Fischman is quite on the same level as ZJ.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't you assume Justin is the strongest at the table?

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I really don't know how strong Justin is relative to Fischman or Singer or whatever

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I have a guess.

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big name live pro

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I'd take Justin over almost any of them, including one of the two you mentioned.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't you assume Justin is the strongest at the table?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't know how strong Justin is relative to Fischman or Singer or whatever

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I have a guess.

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big name live pro

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I'd take Justin over almost any of them, including one of the two you mentioned.

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I didn't know Justin's reputation was that strong. I think there are some pretty weak "big name TV pros", but wouldn't really take anyone over live pros such as Ivey, Negreanu, Brunson, Greenstein, or Hansen.

In any case, my point is that if you look at that final table, it is mostly pros. Whether or not Justin is the best player at that table, there were probably some other strong ones.

Therefore, I wouldn't wouldn't fold JTs in the SB to his bubble raise. In a live tournament, you are getting pretty good pot odds in the SB with the ante, and I would be reluctant to fold JTs to a raise in general.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

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As played, I call and check-call anything but a Q river.

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Also, I bet out if river is T or J.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I'd wager every $ or asset to my name that Justin Bonomo is a better poker player than Daniel Negreanu, anyone named Brunson, and Gus Hansen

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

with 75+ bb effective stacks i'm never folding pre. pf/flop is standard. although this is a good flop to lead for sure.

on the turn i'd probably bet a significant majority of the time. if i did check and he bet, my main problem with a big check raise is that i think it blows him off a lot of hands that will either fire river when checked to or call a river donk lead. from what i can tell ZJ is vastly superior to the avg tourney player in terms of hand reading and pot control, so i don't really see what a turn check raise accomplishes here. if we DO c/r and he shoves, man, how can we ever be good unless he has T9/J9 and reads you for a semi bluff?

oh and if he flat called the turn lead i'd check the river fast and most likely call his bet.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

Scott Fishman sucks, enough said.

C/c the turn and river unless if you hit T/J or if Q comes out

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I like check/call turn and river. If he checks behind on turn, then bet/call river if not 4-straight or 3-flush.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

In any cash forum, everyone would be screaming to get it in. Except this isn't cash and if you get it in vs. ZJ, you have 4 outs, so...hmm. obviously a turn c/r is bad. a check/call is good if he's going to bet, but how often will he bet a naked 8, a king or a bunch of other stuff on this board?

so I like leading the turn. but since we checked and will presumably call, what's the river?

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I am soooooo confused right now.

Are we playing in an MTT where you cannot lead the turn?

Seriously, this seems like by far the best option. Check-raising seems bad, check-calling seems better but not the best option IMO.

I like betting the turn and river, and folding to raises on both streets. Checking the turn let's him play for pot control with a ton of his hands that have value, when he would be calling a turn bet(and a river bet) with a decent part of his range that we have beat. If he is has a hand that beats us, he is raising very often here. We are also giving him free cards w/ draws on the turn if we check. We can also mix in a river check/call on river sometimes.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I would fold preflop. The leverage that the player in position can use in a spot like this is so great IMO. I mean we flop top two pair, and all he has done is simply bet twice as the pre flop aggressor, and we are completely tortured with how to play the hand. If I did play the hand I'd prefer to reraise. I wouldn't mind calling with pairs and etc.

I have huge phobias about playing any deep stacked hands out of position though, because I suck at it, so I try to find any reasonable excuse to avoid doing so. It's just so hard to win a big pot, and control the pot size if our hand is good but vulnerable, and you know that your opponent isn't always going to make life easy for you.


FWIW I would call the turn also. Btw for just a general theory question, why are people always so ready to play such hands out of position? The disadvantage seems huge to going first, and it seems worth well more than the money we put in preflop in these spots. I know that this is beginner's question 101, but I always have trouble justifying having to go first for the whole hand against a good player. The difference being acting first and last seems so monumental to me, especially in a psychologically charged spot like this where we are both giant stacks on a bubble.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold preflop. The leverage that the player in position can use in a spot like this is so great IMO. I mean we flop top two pair, and all he has done is simply bet twice as the pre flop aggressor, and we are completely tortured with how to play the hand. If I did play the hand I'd prefer to reraise. I wouldn't mind calling with pairs and etc.

I have huge phobias about playing any deep stacked hands out of position though, because I suck at it, so I try to find any reasonable excuse to avoid doing so. It's just so hard to win a big pot, and control the pot size if our hand is good but vulnerable, and you know that your opponent isn't always going to make life easy for you.


FWIW I would call the turn also. Btw for just a general theory question, why are people always so ready to play such hands out of position? The disadvantage seems huge to going first, and it seems worth well more than the money we put in preflop in these spots. I know that this is beginner's question 101, but I always have trouble justifying having to go first for the whole hand against a good player. The difference being acting first and last seems so monumental to me, especially in a psychologically charged spot like this where we are both giant stacks on a bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

They belive they are good enough to play profitably post-flop OOP

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

let me go through and answer some questions (obviously w/o knowing who is @ the table)
1) final table may be excellent, but we are still @ 30 ppl so I can guarantee there are worse players at the table
2) Yes we "could" bet the turn, but we are talking about IF we checked the turn and thats the question

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

You are getting better than 3-1 pot odds preflop against a CO raise from a big stack on the bubble. I think folding preflop is pretty bad.

You can't let CO and button steal from you every hand because you are OOP. There are also ways to play OOP, and I am not sure it is that huge a disadvantage.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

on the side note betgo, fischman is awful, singer is pretty damn good but does some REALLY damn goofy stuff, ZJ and Vivek were almost vertainly top 2 players at that table

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

It's tough for me, and I'm sure everyone else, to give objective advice in this hand because we all know the results. Pre, I would never fold, and 3betting light OOP this deep, especially against a good player, is a huge mistake IMO, so I'd definitely call.

On the flop, I would either c/c or c/r, I do a lot of both in this spot. No one else on this forum would even think about c/r'ing, but your hand is probably good but isn't going to win a showdown at the river UI, you're OOP against a good player, so taking it down now (and getting rid of it if you get resistance) might be the best play. It's certainly the least risky. There are also metagame reasons to c/r here, if you get seen c/r'ing without a monster hand here, you're a lot more likely to get action when you c/r top set or a monster draw.

I would never c/c the turn, the board is way too dangerous and 1/3 of the deck is going to make you puke on the river. The only difference between c/r'ing the turn and c/c'ing the turn and then betting the river is that the latter gives Justin another card, so I think the former has to be a better strategy. I'd make it like 100 or 105K.

I don't know what to do on the river if he calls the turn c/r, but I don't think he can possibly call here. He's shoving or folding. I think I'd probably shove any river if he calls the c/r, because there's no way he's calling with a draw here.

If he shoves over the turn C/R, you're definitely deep enough to get away from the hand. Post this hand 6 months from now under an alias to get people's real responses to this situation, but I think it's a fold. Your hand looks very strong, I just can't see him doing this with an overpair.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting better than 3-1 pot odds preflop against a CO raise from a big stack on the bubble. I think folding preflop is pretty bad.

You can't let CO and button steal from you every hand because you are OOP. There are also ways to play OOP, and I am not sure it is that huge a disadvantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok ok I admit that I wouldn't fold there in like a million years, but sometimes I wonder if more people should fold oop (myself included). Also being OOP is a HUGE disadvantage in my opinion. The antes are just too big though.

btw I really would never never PF, I just felt like getting philisophical. I do put a ton of value on position, probably more than most, but the immediate pot odds are just way too big to really consider folding IMO. We can just play some kind of completely boring postflop style this hand and it should be correct to call.

Also I'd call before reraising PF [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Basically ignore my entire first post.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

some people dont know what happened and would love to hear what happened on the hand

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I used to think Todd Terry was a new awesome gimmick account, but then I heard he actually won something and is a real person... makes it funnier imo

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

Depending on table dymanics, I definitely consider 3 betting preflop, but I have no problem with calling the raise.
I understand he's a very strong player, but he's also aggressive and opening from steal position, right?
Honestly, I don't know hero or villian's style/table image that well, but what's wrong with leading the turn?

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

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I'd wager every $ or asset to my name that Justin Bonomo is a better poker player than Daniel Negreanu, anyone named Brunson, and Gus Hansen

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I'd happily take this wager if there was a way to quantify your argument. In fact, based on how retarded your statement is, I think you should forfeit from the getgo.

Why must we introduce the same inane, masturbatory debate about the relative quality of live players vs online geniuses? It's just a frickin' poker hand, people. I'd lead or check/raise the turn.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I'd wager every $ or asset to my name that Justin Bonomo is a better poker player than Daniel Negreanu, anyone named Brunson, and Gus Hansen

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd happily take this wager if there was a way to quantify your argument. In fact, based on how retarded your statement is, I think you should forfeit from the getgo.

Why must we introduce the same inane, masturbatory debate about the relative quality of live players vs online geniuses? It's just a frickin' poker hand, people. I'd lead or check/raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shane:

Surely you know that poker skill is easily measured by the results of a multiple choice test administered and graded by the regular posters on this forum. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Thank god there are luckboxes like Gus Hansen, Daniel Negreanu, Scott Fischman, and to a much lesser extent me (according to mastr's post above) who play terribly yet manage to post some decent results which gives hope to awful poker players everywhere and keeps the fish in the game.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I think ASPoker posts was an exxageration, however ZJ is still really [censored] good and I don't have enough knowledge to conclusively say
DN/Gus/Doyle>ZJ or ZJ>DN/Gus/Doyle or ZJ = DN/ZGus Doyle
That being said ZJ> Fischman and Todd Terry for next year I would be glad to make a POY bets ZJ vs. Fischman for any sum of money.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold preflop. The leverage that the player in position can use in a spot like this is so great IMO. I mean we flop top two pair, and all he has done is simply bet twice as the pre flop aggressor, and we are completely tortured with how to play the hand. If I did play the hand I'd prefer to reraise. I wouldn't mind calling with pairs and etc.

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I tend to agree with you about playing hands OOP against people who are good, which is why my 6m stats are a bit tighter then other regs. Still QJs is far too strong here IMO to fold PF with these antes. Live on the bubble of a tourney with a big stack he should be raising really wide, especially if button is weak (dunno him but assuming unknown live player is playing tight here).

I disagree with the playing small pairs thing, I think QJs plays stronger here. But I'd also call 22.

In a cash game IN ZJs spot I would def 2 barrel with KK (would rarely check for pot control), and in OPs spot I'd be happy to get it in on the turn. Dynamics though are really different in cash than a donkament bubble, so I guess just c/c.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

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FWIW I would call the turn also. Btw for just a general theory question, why are people always so ready to play such hands out of position?

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because some people aren't deathly afraid of playing good hands 75+ bb deep just because they're OOP?

is this where i should add "lol donkaments"?

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

FWIW I would call the turn also. Btw for just a general theory question, why are people always so ready to play such hands out of position?

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because some people aren't deathly afraid of playing good hands 75+ bb deep just because they're OOP?

is this where i should add "lol donkaments"?

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I have to agree that folding JTs 75 BB deep getting 3-1 pot odds against an aggressive player in CO on the bubble is a donk play.

If you put Justin on a top 60% hand, which is a conservative range, JTs is the favorite. Plus you have a hand that is relatively easy to play and can flop big and 3-1 pot odds.

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

I really see a problem with the fold preflop argument. Justin is probably raising just about any two. If you fold JTs, you are probably folding atleast 85% of your hands. I know he is a top player, but can you just let him steal your blinds because you are OOP and the money is deep?

Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k
 

[ QUOTE ]
JTs is the favorite. Plus you have a hand that is relatively easy to play

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if this hand is relatively easy to play, why can no one come up with a consensus on the proper way to play it?