***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

There seems to be a lot of great prices this year...I am not an experienced sports bettor, so please tell me GOOD reasons why my picks suck...I'm looking for some insight

All my picks are pretty much teams that were either killed by injuries or have a lot of young players and should improve


Wizards over 40 (-120)
They got 41 last year and that's with alot of injuries to key guys

Raptors over 42.5 (-115)
there a young team and they won more games last year

76ers over 31.5 (-110)
Solid starting 5 in weak division

Bobcats over 35.5(-110)
+2000 for division win...seems like such a good price
Lot of young talent that should keep improving

Milluwakee over 36 (-115)
Seems like a good team to me... maybe i'm missing something?

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem

Kinicks over 36(-110)
Randolph is a pretty good player...gotta be worth a few extra W's

Hornets over 38.5 (-120)
Young team crushed by injuries last year and they still got 39 wins

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem


[/ QUOTE ]

they just traded davis and blount for antoine walker

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

I am not sure if it is worth the change in price but you can get these for a half or a full win less for ten or fifteen more cents at 5dimes, you have got to line shop. Also generally all the totals add up to more than the total number of wins. So all else equal the under is a better play, i would be nervous playing all those overs. Anyway here are the better prices you can get at 5dimes:

WAS o39.5 -135 (again I am not sure if .5 wins is worth 15 cents)
TOR o41.5 -130 (but I bet a full win is probably worth the 15 cents)
Bobcats o35.5 +100 (here you get the ten cents for free)
MIL o35.5 -125
MIN o19.5 -125 (My intuition is that when the total is low each win will be worth more so the full win for 15 cents would be even better here)
NO o37.5 -125 (the win is definately worth 5 cents)

I just checked 5dimes, but if you checked all the places with lines up you could find better lines, that is the key to sports betting.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

LOLol at PHL having 'solid' starting 5. I'm a Sixer fan, ftr. Dalembert is banged up, as is the perenially injured Dookie. Nobody knows if Williams and Green and Carney will pan out long-term. Korver couldn't stop me from taking him to the hole. Inside presences of Hunter and Smith are gone.

The East is so week they could win 34 or so, I guess. I'd still take the Under.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

Generally you want to not take so many overs.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem


[/ QUOTE ]

they just traded davis and blount for antoine walker

[/ QUOTE ]

trading Davis adds 5 wins at least...guy is poison.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem


[/ QUOTE ]

they just traded davis and blount for antoine walker

[/ QUOTE ]

trading Davis adds 5 wins at least...guy is poison.

[/ QUOTE ]

what does that make Toine?

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

TWOLVES over 20.5 (-110)
Ricky davis and Al Jefferson gives them an outside shot at 30 wins... 20.5 should be no problem


[/ QUOTE ]

they just traded davis and blount for antoine walker

[/ QUOTE ]

trading Davis adds 5 wins at least...guy is poison.

[/ QUOTE ]

what does that make Toine?

[/ QUOTE ]

If davis is poison, that makes walker' super aids

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

There are lots of profitable middles available still, if you don't mind tying up some money for the season. Here are the best 3 that I've found. If you have access to a lot of books you can probably do even better. Probabilities and ROI are calculated per Wong chapter 10.

Boston o48 -105
Boston u50 -105
probability of middle = 17.8%
ROI = 15.75%

Detroit o48 -120
Detroit u50.5 -115
probability of middle = 22.0%
ROI = 15.18%

Cleveland o46.5 -115
Cleveland u49 -130
probability of middle = 22.0%
ROI = 13.23%

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

I see bodog has the lines with unders, where are you getting the other lines at?

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

Diamond

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

online beginner:

I think you should be concerned by the fact that all of your plays are overs.

The current total of all over/unders is 15-20 games higher than the total possible number of wins.

I don't really know enough about most teams on here to bet them, but the Warriors are listed at 41. They will win more than 41 games. Anybody who thinks they might be a worse team than last year just doesn't know what they're talking about and/or didn't pay attention last year.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

Just made a few small bets on bodog.
Boston to win the Atlantic Division at 10/13, I don't think they will be as good as some think but this division is a joke.
Orlando Under 47.5 No way does adding Rashard Lewis and losing Darko and Grant Hill= 8 more wins.
New Jersey Under 43.5 They just always seem to be about .500 so with Kidd and Vince getting older I'll take under.
Charlotte Under 35.5 Losing May and Morrison makes this an under for me. They are very thin and Okafor is the definition of injury-prone.
Philadelphia Over 31.5 Underrated Andre Miller throwing oops to leapers AI, Carney, and Thaddeus make this an exciting near .500 team.
Minnesota Over 20.5 No pressure on a young team with alot of potential stars, Al being the centerpiece.
Memphis Over 33.5 This was year in and year out a playoff team so take advantage of this # after a bad year.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just made a few small bets on bodog.
Boston to win the Atlantic Division at 10/13, I don't think they will be as good as some think but this division is a joke.
Orlando Under 47.5 No way does adding Rashard Lewis and losing Darko and Grant Hill= 8 more wins.
New Jersey Under 43.5 They just always seem to be about .500 so with Kidd and Vince getting older I'll take under.
Charlotte Under 35.5 Losing May and Morrison makes this an under for me. They are very thin and Okafor is the definition of injury-prone.
Philadelphia Over 31.5 Underrated Andre Miller throwing oops to leapers AI, Carney, and Thaddeus make this an exciting near .500 team.
Minnesota Over 20.5 No pressure on a young team with alot of potential stars, Al being the centerpiece.
Memphis Over 33.5 This was year in and year out a playoff team so take advantage of this # after a bad year.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 contenders for the div tittle with Toronto (ahem, won it last year), Jersey (gotten tougher down low, injured last year), and Boston. Just a poor bet on your part.

The rest is mostly bunk reasoning as well.

Think about your analysis, then ask yourself - is this factored into the line already?

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

If I think a team is going to run away with a division I'm not afraid to bet it before the season. Last year I took the Suns at 6/5 to win the Pacific and in football I took the Patriots to win the East this year. Both times people said they were bad bets because the almighty Kobe or Chad Pennington were big threats [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I'm open to opinions on my O/U's, but trust me the NBA is my sport for betting and if they don't go atleast 4-2 I'd be shocked.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

Picks on 2007-2008 NBA Regular Season Wins:

Charlotte Bobcats u35.5 -115
Cleveland Cavaliers u49.5 -135
Denver Nuggets o48.5 -115
Memphis Grizzlies o32.5 -115
Orlando Magic u47.5 -125
Phoenix Suns o55.5 -115
Washington Wizards o39.5 -115
Golden State u42.5 -125
New Orleans o37.5 -125

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

wow i am on the opposite side of a ton of your bets OLB.

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The Rockets are +2050 to win the title at The Greek. If anyone cares to take a shot, I think that's a good one. They look like an improved team.
(+1222 at Pinnacle, +900 at Bet Jamaica, 7/1 at Bodog, etc.)

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Rockets are +2050 to win the title at The Greek. If anyone cares to take a shot, I think that's a good one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I love that at +2050. I'm high on the Rockets.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

I don't know any thing about the NBA, but I want to get a little action down so I took pinny's line as the true line, assumed a Poisson distribution and then just looked for value at the two books I have right. Here are the plays:
BOS u50 2.2u to win 2u (bodog)
DEN u49.5 .952u to win 1u (bodog)
DET u50.5 1.15u to win 1u (bodog)
POR u31 .952u to win 1u (5dimes)
WAS u41 1.575u to win 1.5u (bodog)

The number of units are based on the relative value according to pinny. This system also likes the following plays but only marginally:
ATL o38.5 -105 (bodog)
HOU u53.5 -115(5dimes)
LAC o30.5 -120 (bodog)
NY o36 -120 (bodog)
SEA o28 -115 (bodog)

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

I got Washington 10-1 to win the division. That is all I have so far.

I am still looking at any unders to take for the season totals. I do like the Charlotte one. I am a Cavs fan and like their under as well.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

Centris, if your system likes HOU u53.5 at -115 on 5Dimes, why wouldn't it like HOU u54 for -105 on Bodog?

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

Oops sorry that should have been HOU u53.5 +115, which it likes better than u54 -105.

Good catch thing85, thanks.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know any thing about the NBA, but I want to get a little action down so I took pinny's line as the true line, assumed a Poisson distribution and then just looked for value at the two books I have right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Requisite ImStillBen response: "No"

Wong is just plain wrong about using Binomial distributions to model season wins in sports where they play a lot of games. For example, the 1995-96 Spurs won 59 games. With many returning players it would not be unreasonable to expect them to win 53 games in the 96-97 season so lets assume that that was the expected average number of games for a hypothetical Pinny line.

During the 96-97 season the Spurs won 20 games, for those keeping track at home, thats a 1 in 5 million event (to win 20 or fewer games). That event should only happen once in about 200,000 seasons.

So is it possible that we witnessed a 1 in 200,000 year event? No, not really - the truth is that the standard deviation is much higher than what Poisson gives you, and as a result RSW totals close to the posted lines occur less frequently than Wong's theory predicts.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

here's mine

phoenix suns o55 -110
miami heat u45.5 -120
ny knicks o36 -120
seattle supersonics o27.5 -115
sa spurs u55.5 +100
la lakers u42.5 -110

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Portland Under 31.5 -115
San Antonio Over 55.5 -115

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Houston Over 53.5 -120

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I am so sick about not getting enough $ in my accounts earlier so i can bet more but here are some of my picks

Seattle u 28 (1.83)
Orlando u 46 (1.83)
Atlanta u 38 (1.9)
Toronto o 42.5 (1.66)
Boston u 48.5 (1.9)

Bulls to win division (3.2)
Raptors to win division (4.0)
Bulls to win east (5.5)

i have a couple of really small bets (less then $50 because i ran out of $ and am over my deposit limit) on spurs to win title and was to win division.

There is one bet that i wish i could make and would encourage others to make (I wish i could swap with someone) and that is the Kings under 34.5. Bibby out 10 weeks and artest suspended 7 games makes this line look golden. They were prolly like a 35 win team if they stayed healthy.

few thoughts:

I think that the celtics and the magic are both overvalued. There is no way that rashard lewis adds a lot to the magic and i think that they have a realistic chance of missing the postseason (raps,celts,nets,heat,wiz,cavs,bulls and pistons are all better imo).

I think that the celtics will start somewhat slow due to the many changes and they are also going to struggle in back to back games due to their lack of depth. I think that this is something that is overlooked and i think that this is the biggest reason that raptors won 47 games last yr. They are 9-10 deep and they won a large % of their back to backs simply because of their depth. I also think that celtics cannot have one of the big 3 hurt and both pierce and allen missed a lot of time last yr...

I like the raptors and bulls becaue they are young and deep and i view the bulls as being the best team in the east. They prolly would have won the div. last year had pistons not picked up webber and i think that they got better in the offseason and pistons didnt.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

if its possible to swap $ on sporstinteratcive or bet365 i would gladly exchange with someone and give them $ on fulltilt/stars

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

RSW Summary, including yesterday's plays. Almost all prices still available, some of them better, except for a few taken earlier.


2x: Portland Under 31.5, -115
1.5x: Atlanta Under 38.5, +105
1.5x: Sacramento Under 36, -110 and Under 34.5, -150
1.5x: Cleveland Over 46, -120
1.5x: Seattle Under 28.5, -115
Chicago Over 48, -110
Dallas Over 56.5, -115
Houston Over 53.5, -120
LA Clippers Under 33, -125
New Jersey Under 44, -110
Phoenix Over 55.5, -140
San Antonio Over 55.5, -115
0.5x: Washington Over 39.5, -130


Leans on the other teams, not played, for fun only:
Boston Over 48.5, -120
Charlotte Over 35, +105
Denver Over 49, -115
Detroit Over 48.5, -120
Golden State Under 42.5, -115
Indiana Under 32, -115
Lakers Under 42,5, -115
Miami Under 44.5, -110
Memphis Under 34, -105
Milwaukee Over 35.5, -120
Minnesota Under 20.5, -120
New Orleans Over 38.5, -125
New York Over 36, -125
Orlando Under 47.5, -115
Philadelphia Over 31, +105
Toronto Over 41.5, -140
Utah Over 47.5, -120

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

Other NBA season-long futures and props, almost all prices currently available, some of them better, except a few:

Championship: Phoenix +426, San Antonio +425, Dallas +450.

Eastern Conf Champ: Boston +485, Detroit +425, 0.5x Chicago +450.

Atlantic Champ: 2x Boston +105, 0.5x Toronto +395.

Southeast Champ: Orlando +450, n/a.

Pacific Champ: 6x Phoenix -450.

MVP: Nash +500, 0.5x Garnett +500, 0.5x Nowitzki +650.

ROY: 3x Durant +100, n/a, Field +900 (Greek field includes Stuckey, Scola, Bellinelli, Navarro, others).

Assist leader: 2x Nash +110, 0.5x Deron Williams +1200.

Scoring leader: Arenas +600, LeBron +600, Kobe +200, 0.5x Carmelo +750.

Rebounds leader: Dwight Howard +400, Chandler +800, Garnett +250.

Re: ***NBA FUTURES THREAD***
 

lol at orlando +47.5. Rashard Lewis is the most overpaid person in sports. He will never earn that contract.