*** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

IND @ CAR
DET @ CHI
PIT @ CIN
NYG @ MIA
PHI @ MIN
CLE @ STL
OAK @ TEN

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Can anyone help me figure out how Oakland might win? Tennesee dominates TOP with their rush offense, and has good rush D as well. TOs could go against them.. I just wanna see the other side of this argument please. While I am at it, Miami has a depleted secondary and their best offensive weapon goes down midweek and the line barely shifts? Miami's defense is dead last in yards given up per pass..Dead last in yards rushing given up...The Giants pass rush is on a roll and the Dolphins traded Chris Chambers.. My thoughts just aren't balanced here, help requested.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

DET @ CHI easy game of the week. Bears are pissed, Kitna's running for his life, and Tommie Harris guaranteed a Bears win...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I like Tenn much more as a dog or slight favorite. They laid 8.5 to the Falcons at home and couldnt cover it. I see more value in the Raiders +9 on some sites.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

in for 200 cleve -3
and 100 on over 44.
nothing much else really interests me this wk.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I also have Cleveland -3 and Over 44. 1u each.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Yeah CLE over STL is looking very sweet right now, considering putting a few bills on this and I never really bet more than $10.

Can anyone explain why this line is here, Im from STL and I can tell you this season home field counts for nothing (but turf). Also the Rams are getting a average of ~11 points a game, with half of our good players out atm. I don't see the rams coming any closer than 10 points.

Edit* That over 44 is also looking good.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

It's because Cle has taken it up the ass in domes like forever now, and this is NFL. Of the few teams StL can beat at home, Cle is one of them. In fact, Cle can beat themselves while the Rams just watch and win.

How about PHI -1 ??? I don't think any Vikes QB passes to wide open receivers over the middle like Griese did last week. Eagles need this game and have experience to win it. McNabb may not look pretty this week, but he and Westbrook will make the crucial plays at right times...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Thanks for the info johnny, I had no idea they struggled in domes. I will still be riding this but not for as much.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

am i the only one considering the rams in that game, maybe im over estimating what steven jackson can do, but i feel getting 3 at home vs cleveland might be good enough

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
am i the only one considering the rams in that game, maybe im over estimating what steven jackson can do, but i feel getting 3 at home vs cleveland might be good enough

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't see any reason to lay points on the road with Cleveland either. I'm waiting and hoping for 3.5 at least.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I think the cle/stl line is well set. I'm setting myself up to get burned by philly once again, but hey, can I help it if they're just not playing up to their talent level? The other line I considered was the SF ML. Passed on it as college opportunities are better this week than anything in the NFL, but may put a bet in before the game. I actually like Was to beat the ridiculous spread as well.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's because Cle has taken it up the ass in domes like forever now, and this is NFL. Of the few teams StL can beat at home, Cle is one of them. In fact, Cle can beat themselves while the Rams just watch and win.

How about PHI -1 ??? I don't think any Vikes QB passes to wide open receivers over the middle like Griese did last week. Eagles need this game and have experience to win it. McNabb may not look pretty this week, but he and Westbrook will make the crucial plays at right times...

[/ QUOTE ]

im staying away from this one. im a big eagles/ pats fan and have been following the slow death of the eagles. that aside the big game they gave up to thomas jones and the jets concerns me. i just dont like their run d in general. if minn decides to let adrian peterson have a lot of carries this could be a tough one for the eagles.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Now, I changed my Cleveland bet to just the OVER.

Apparently, bookie had taken a lotta action on that side and wanted me to cancel [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Now, I changed my Cleveland bet to just the OVER.

Apparently, bookie had taken a lotta action on that side and wanted me to cancel [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

The only bets I've ever placed have been either in casinos or offshore books, so take this with a grain of salt, but that seems like a load of BS to me.

If your bookie already confirmed your bet and then calls you to cancel later, I'd either be telling him that's not going to cut it or I'd be looking for a new bookie.

It's not your problem that he decided he's taking too much action on that side after he already confirmed your bet. Unless this is something where he just realized it right after accepting and called you right back or something. If he's asking you to cancel as a favor, that's different. It sounds like you're saying that he's making you cancel though, in which case this sounds pretty wrong to me.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Anyone like NYG/Mia u48? Long trip, playing in a strange place, NYG def is solid, etc... The long trip is what does it for me.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's because Cle has taken it up the ass in domes like forever now, and this is NFL. Of the few teams StL can beat at home, Cle is one of them. In fact, Cle can beat themselves while the Rams just watch and win.


[/ QUOTE ]

Does that really matter though?

I mean, when is the last time Cle has been this good and Stl has been this bad? I think Cle covers here easy but I am kinda scared because of how low the line is.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Why has the line not moved on the Indy/Car game? From what I can tell people are hitting Indy at -7 pretty hard. Does Vegas know something that I don't know?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

im not sure what scenarios would have to play out for the cleveland game to hit the under. clevelands last 5 games have been all been over 50 except for one and that was against baltimore in which they still put up 27. Both Teams are in the bottom five in scoring d with cleveland giving up 30 and st louis 27 per game. Over 45 seems like an obvious play as long as St. Louis can into the endzone.

Anyone else think Detroit @ Chicago will be a similar game and is on the Over 45. Chicago's secondary is still decimated and they are giving up 24 a game and Detroit's D is giving up 28 a game. I like this game to be along the lines of a 31-24 type game as well.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I'm with you on both of those games. I got Browns/Rams at over 44.5 and Lions/Bears at over 43.5. Also a parlay of Browns -2, Browns/Rams Over 23 for the first half.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

looks like the rams first win of the year to me.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why has the line not moved on the Indy/Car game? From what I can tell people are hitting Indy at -7 pretty hard. Does Vegas know something that I don't know?

[/ QUOTE ]
I intend to wait until kickoff and pray that Carolina gets more points. I will be betting Carolina at +7 and I hope to get more, but I'm not sure that's happening.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like NYG/Mia u48? Long trip, playing in a strange place, NYG def is solid, etc... The long trip is what does it for me.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought about this too. However, fans want to see points. I think the NFL would love for this game to be high scoring. There may a little added pressure to bump up the score. Remember when Arizona and SF played in Mexico City? I'm not sure if that makes sense...

Also, I don't know if you're a West Coaster like me, but in reality these are both East Coast teams and it is only a 7 hour flight to London (from New York) and only 5 hours time difference. That's less of a time difference than when the players play in Hawaii for the Pro Bowl. I think I'm laying off of it.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

any thoughts on a round-robin with this 6pt teaser combo?

Colts -7 at Panthers
Raiders at Titans -7.5
Patriots at Redskins +16

don't really like betting against NE obviously, but getting 22 points at home going across 17 and 21 can't be wrong can it?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
any thoughts on a round-robin with this 6pt teaser combo?

Colts -7 at Panthers
Raiders at Titans -7.5
Patriots at Redskins +16

don't really like betting against NE obviously, but getting 22 points at home going across 17 and 21 can't be wrong can it?

[/ QUOTE ]
The game is in NE.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

oops, i didn't even look, for some reason my brain took it as a given they were playing in washington, certainly not as confident as i was before, i still think 3 TD's is a nice cushion regardless of venue though

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
any thoughts on a round-robin with this 6pt teaser combo?
Colts -7 at Panthers
Raiders at Titans -7.5
Patriots at Redskins +16

don't really like betting against NE obviously, but getting 22 points at home going across 17 and 21 can't be wrong can it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it is wrong if you define -EV as "wrong". The only time teasing 6 points is +EV is if by teasing the game you CHANGE the outcome >20-22% of the time. If you think WAS +16 has good value, bet that don't tease it.

Put another way, they only time teasing from +16 to +22 is a good bet is if NE wins by EXACTLY 17-22 over 21% of the time (since you need to hit the teaser leg ~72% of the time and if NE doesn't win by 16 or more 50% of the time, you should have simply taken WAS +16).

That was a long-winded answer, but does that make sense to you?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

yes, but a range of likely point differentials including:

-3 3 7 10 14 17 21 24 27

would have 17+21 (2/9) right at that 22% figure just on random chance, and i gotta think you would weight the range between 2-3 TD's in NE's favor as being more likely to occur than the scores at the outer bounds of the range

in any case i appreciate you helping me look at it from a more mathematical perspective

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[ QUOTE ]
looks like the rams first win of the year to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL @ people that think Clev is a bad team this year.

Clev is the #4 scoring team this year. Their D isn't good, but the Rams are bottom of the league in both O and D.

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
looks like the rams first win of the year to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL @ people that think Clev is a bad team this year.

Clev is the #4 scoring team this year. Their D isn't good, but the Rams are bottom of the league in both O and D.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm much higher on Cleveland than most people, but this really feels like a game that STL can win.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm much higher on Cleveland than most people, but this really feels like a game that STL can win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that, other than the fact they're playing the Browns who have historically sucked?

- C -

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

1u IND @ CAR +7
1u DET +5.5 @ CHI
1u PIT @ CIN +3.5
1u NYG @ MIA +10
1u PHI -1 @ MIN
1u CLE @ STL +3
1u OAK @ TEN -7

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I have 1u on Giants -9.5, Miami can't defend the run and Jacobs should have a field day (Thomas being out won't help either), and the combination of Lemon and no Brown isn't inspiring on the other side of the field.

[edit - had forgotten that Miami had traded away Chambers as well, lol]

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
1u IND @ CAR +7
1u DET +5.5 @ CHI
1u PIT @ CIN +3.5
1u NYG @ MIA +10
1u PHI -1 @ MIN
1u CLE @ STL +3
1u OAK @ TEN -7

[/ QUOTE ]

one of us is gonna have a great sunday, cause i think i took the opposite of every one of your bets

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have 1u on Giants -9.5, Miami can't defend the run and Jacobs should have a field day (Thomas being out won't help either), and the combination of Lemon and no Brown isn't inspiring on the other side of the field.

[edit - had forgotten that Miami had traded away Chambers as well, lol]

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a "Show Game" played in London.
expect a close game here.

-JC

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

ok, now im worried about
my Tennessee Titans -7 Bet....

let's see what happen. (push?)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

1 unit on each of 3 early games:

STL+3
TEN-7
MIN+1

As usual, I'll be tracking results on my website.

Good luck to all.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Picks for the Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-Pates

Panthers +7 v Colts bet 1u to win 1u (Bodog)
Giants -10 v Dolphins bet 1.03u to win 1u (5dimes)
Rams +3 v Browns bet 1.13u to win 1u (5 dimes)


ytd:
10-10-2
down 0.47u
bet 23.16u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Anyone watching the INDY/CAR game? How is the INDY offense sputtering like this?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

the giants/dolphins game is not only the first ever season game to be played in europe, but also the first ever nfl game to officially be played on a slip n' slide.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
the giants/dolphins game is not only the first ever season game to be played in europe, but also the first ever nfl game to officially be played on a slip n' slide.

[/ QUOTE ]
LOZL I can't imagine that every person in that stadium is cheering because they're an NFL fan, but I CAN imagine that they're all drunk so why not cheer for either team anyways.

Tennessee is really gonna piss me off if they can't take over the frickin Raiders in the second half...