One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

Recently he responded to me after reading this article:

On Boston.com/sports

With this statement:

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Acquire a SS incapable of performing in Boston (Renteria) and deciding after one year to trade him to another team (Atlanta) while I pay a significant portion of his salary. And in said trade I will acquire a prospect that is nowhere near as talented as his hype (Marte) from a team (Atlanta) that never trades away quality prospects , and ship said prospect to another team (Cleveland) for our CF of the future (Crisp) who will supposedly replace the leadoff capabilities of our current leadoff hitter (Damon) but in turn he will turn out to be a slap hitter with very little slap, and somehow has an even worse OF arm than Damon, which is not easy to do..........and then I could compound the SS mess by lusting after a shortstop (Lugo) who is below average defensively, and can't hit anywhere near his salary level. Question: Would you have rather had Lugo or Alex Gonzalez as your SS this year? We KNOW Gonzalez is miles better defensively, but go surprise yourself and check out Gonzalez's HR and AVG. numbers this past season.

Or I could give a corner outfielder (Drew) with no corner OF power a 75 million dollar contract, while negotiating against NO OTHER TEAM for his services. Remember what Drews other offers were? That's right, there weren't any other offers.

Or I could trade an emerging #3/4 starter (Gabbard) and an emerging #3 OF (Murphy) for a closer who has not been dominant for the better part of 4 seasons, never pitched in the pressure of a large market, and ask him to perform in a role (Setup) that he has never performed in, and see how that works out (not well)

Or I could trade a RP (Meredith) who goes on THAT season to become one of the most dominant setup men in the NL, AND also throw in a young, good hitting catcher (Bard) for a backup catcher (Mirabelli) who is so bad, he has not belonged in the major leagues for several years. What, you don't think there is ANY other catcher than can catch a knuckle ball? Cash looked fine to me.

Or I could go on a vacation/hiatus/pouting break and stay away just long enough for a great baseball mind like Bill Lajoie to pull off a great trade that will later save my ass, acquiring two cornerstone players (Beckett, Lowell) of the 2007 World Series team.

Or I could misread the market and put up an extra 12 million dollar posting fee for a japaneese pitcher, knowing full well that no Japaneese pitcher has performed to an all star level consistently in the U.S.

It would be soooooooooo wonderful to learn all those outstanding skills. And it would be even better to have an endless supply of money to cover up those mistakes.

So far, Ellsbury, Papelbon, Lester, Bucholz look like legit players. So there you have it, I have found Theo's true talent. He would make a nice little farm director.


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Who's side are you on?

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

He's apparently decent at assessing young talent but has been legitimately awful in the free agent market...so I guess it falls on what you think is more important

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

He is overrated.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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He is overrated.

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Your insight is amazing. Quality reply.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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He's apparently decent at assessing young talent but has been legitimately awful in the free agent market...so I guess it falls on what you think is more important

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Two World Series in 4 season is what is important, no?

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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He's apparently decent at assessing young talent but has been legitimately awful in the free agent market...so I guess it falls on what you think is more important

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Two World Series in 4 season is what is important, no?

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He's overrated the same way Joe Torre is overrated

Very good but isn't the messiah or anything like people make them out to be

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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[ QUOTE ]
He is overrated.

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Your insight is amazing. Quality reply.

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Well, your only question was "Who's side are you on?"

I think he took that to mean either "He's overrated", or "he's underrated", or perhaps "he's rated appropriately."

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

Your friend is beyond dumb and extremely results oriented. Does he know what a sample size is?

The Gagne part was especially fallacious and juicy.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

I don't think he qualifies as "very good"....The fact that his payroll is limitless offsets the fact that he went and spent like 100 million for Dice-K (way too much for the result); too much for lugo, drew, clement, etc.....he's not bad by any means, but i wouldnt consider him very good

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

Don't be results-oriented? By what other measure should one assess a GM's performance? Simple fact of the matter is that several of Theo's major acquisitions (Gagne, Drew, Lugo) have been absolute abominations this year (and let's not forget Wily Mo, our left fielder of the future), and many of the guys they've given up have been performed extremely well elsewhere.

I agree with almost everything written in that diatribe. The Sox are winning despite Theo's efforts since the end of 2004.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

there was no reason to expect crisp to underperform so badly. he seemed like a good fit for boston, got hurt and wasn't ever really the same. he projected much better than he has been. i was fine with that trade at the time. we got a crap prospect in marte but we flipped him before the indians had a chance to realize he was crap [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

theo has made some dubious moves but he gets away with it because boston has a great scouting / farm system and a big payroll. the matsuzaka signing will pan out for us - dice did pretty well for his first year in the AL East. it took beckett a full year to adjust, now look at him. you also help yourself by putting up that money, because if the sox don't get the bid, there's a good chance he ends up on NYY. hence you hurt your opponent while helping yourself.

the drew and lugo signings are pretty blah so far, but i think they learned from the renteria debacle - they won't give up on those guys right away, and they're both likely to bounce back next year.

kason gabbard showing anything other than AAAA caliber stuff is baffling. the guy languished in pawtucket for a long time, never really seemed to have it together. we have a bunch of other guys with similar minor-league numbers (corey, hansack, etc) and a wealth of young pitching talent coming up through the lower minors. there really wasn't much room for gabbard or murphy on the sox in the next few years, and they are both pretty old for being marginal prospects. nothing wrong with giving these guys up while in GFIN mode, the problem was not figuring out that gagne was hurt. i think everyone had an inkling that he was hiding an injury (hell, how else did we get him so cheap?) but the sox decided to say [censored] it, let's see if he can help out. it's a gamble worth taking when you can deal guys who are blocked anyway or nearing the end of their window.

none of these moves (other than bard/meredith, that was awful) are half as bad as your buddy thinks. theo isn't the genius he is heralded as, but he is a bold GM with the luxury of great job security who generally does a good job.

i didn't hear your friend mention anything about how he has patched together the best bullpen in baseball from a couple of young farm system studs, some journeyman vets and a guy who was supposed to be dice-k's caddy when they brought him over. or about how the sox are loaded with young pitching talent and have more of it coming up through the minors as we speak. beckett's extension was a great deal for us and we already have maybe the best post-arb SP contract in baseball in timmy dubs.

theo is overrated, but he does a good job nonetheless.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

Or I could misread the market and put up an extra 12 million dollar posting fee for a japaneese pitcher, knowing full well that no Japaneese pitcher has performed to an all star level consistently in the U.S. [ QUOTE ]


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dice k rules. i hate him for this comment alone!

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

Epstein is overrated in the same sense that Billy Beane is overated. They both get credited for others work.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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I don't think he qualifies as "very good"....The fact that his payroll is limitless offsets the fact that he went and spent like 100 million for Dice-K (way too much for the result); too much for lugo, drew, clement, etc.....he's not bad by any means, but i wouldnt consider him very good

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So far you're judging all of these deals on ONE year of a bunch of long term deals. The only definite bust there is Clement, and while he probably would've ended up being overpaid, he was doing fine before catching a comebacker off his dome.

Your view is very short-sighted. Calling out Dice-K is especially laughable (another thought on Dice-K: it's doubtful Theo was the driving force behind the big overbid. The owners had a big interest in landing him).

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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Or I could trade an emerging #3/4 starter (Gabbard) and an emerging #3 OF (Murphy) for a closer who has not been dominant for the better part of 4 seasons, never pitched in the pressure of a large market, and ask him to perform in a role (Setup) that he has never performed in, and see how that works out (not well)


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Epstein is pretty bad, but I'd say the Gagne deal is going to work out just fine. They are likely going to get two first round picks for two players that are not worth first round picks. It was the irrational Red Sox fans that were expecting Gagne to be the savior.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

part1: from renteria to crisp was a mess, but no part of that transition really "hurt" the red sox. gonzalez is not better than lugo.

part2: there were other bids for drew. baltimore was in on him for sure, and i remember reading other teams interested. jd drew is not an "abomination", he is a good player.

part3: gabbard and murphy have no place on this team, and were classic sell high prospects. i highly doubt either has a productive career. everyone at the trade deadline thought getting gagne was a good move, you can't go back and criticize him now.

part4: meredith/bard for mirabelli was a disaster

part5: thats one of the advantages of being the red sox, and theo would be foolish if he didnt make sure he won the bidding for matsuzaka if he wanted him as badly as he says. i'm not sure how people can rip him for this move, he had a pretty good year, and its the first of 6.

i think theo is a top 5 gm. the future in boston is very bright.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

[x] signed Big Papi for loose change in 2003

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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He's apparently decent at assessing young talent but has been legitimately awful in the free agent market...

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Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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He is overrated.

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Your insight is amazing. Quality reply.

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Well, your only question was "Who's side are you on?"

I think he took that to mean either "He's overrated", or "he's underrated", or perhaps "he's rated appropriately."

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Exactly. You asked who's side i'm on. I think he is overrated. Your friend pretty much sums up a lot of his mistakes.

You also didn't list any reasons why he isn't overrated in your OP. ty for your amazing insight.

I don't think he is a horrible GM, I just think he was much better in his first few years, before the Red Sox increased spending to compete with the Yankees.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

Also, I wouldn't give up on Marte just yet. There were only six players his age who hit more HR's than he did in AAA THIS YEAR and his Ks are manageable. He's not the #1 overall prospect like he was hyped up at the time, but then he was never that. He's still got a good chance to be a very good big league regular. It's a matter of someone giving him regular playing time for 600 AB so we can figure out exactly what he's going to be. Cleveland should probably let Blake walk and give Marte a full look in 2008.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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He's apparently decent at assessing young talent but has been legitimately awful in the free agent market...

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ortiz
okajima
timlin
mueller
garden worm

etc

he's better at finding overlooked guys who can contribute than signing big ticket FA's. he's also been good about NOT overpaying for FA's on their way down - pedro, damon, etc. he lets guys walk at the right time for the most part. the guys he has signed who haven't worked out are still mostly young guys who projected pretty well, not 35 year old declining sluggers.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

Millar was a pretty decent pick up as well.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

didn't count him or dice since millar's contract was actually purchased from florida IIRC and dice-k was posted. but they were both pretty good deals imo.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

[ QUOTE ]
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He is overrated.

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Your insight is amazing. Quality reply.

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Well, your only question was "Who's side are you on?"

I think he took that to mean either "He's overrated", or "he's underrated", or perhaps "he's rated appropriately."

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Exactly. You asked who's side i'm on. I think he is overrated. Your friend pretty much sums up a lot of his mistakes.

You also didn't list any reasons why he isn't overrated in your OP. ty for your amazing insight.

I don't think he is a horrible GM, I just think he was much better in his first few years, before the Red Sox increased spending to compete with the Yankees.

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If I wanted a poll, I would have made a poll. I'm S O R R Y T H A T Y O U N E E D E V E R Y T H I N G S P E L L E D O U T F O R Y O U.

I think it's obvious that I feel Theo has done a fine job. But to make it clear, it was 2002 when I nearly gave up my season tickets and now I am very happy I kept them and the new owners/management has done a great job and should be the pride of Boston. But there are some fans who are retarded that can't be satisfied with winning a WS and then returning 4 seasons later. WEEI in Boston (the #1 sports radio station in the country) feeds off these fans, rinse/repeat, and this has a trickle down effect in the overall media.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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He's not the #1 overall prospect like he was hyped up at the time, but then he was never that.

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If he wasn't, he was pretty close.

Theo has basically been about as great as you can expect any GM to be given his position, the pressure put on him by ownership and fans (the latter of which he ignores quite well). When you have extra money, you can afford to be less efficient in a couple of decisions here and there, just because there's nothing to gain from not doing it. Overall Epstein's been great, and it's a testament to his analytical skill that the Sox have been in many a precarious position to mess up the franchise for quite a while and Theo has resisted the temptation.

I'd agree that Theo is a top 5 GM, maybe top 3.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

[ QUOTE ]
If I wanted a poll, I would have made a poll. I'm S O R R Y T H A T Y O U N E E D E V E R Y T H I N G S P E L L E D O U T F O R Y O U.

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Ouch. Burn. Owned.

No.

You win, you have proved that you are a huge douche. My bad I didn't expand on the argument that Theo is overrated WHICH IS ALREADY TALKED ABOUT IN YOUR OP BY YOUR FRIEND.

Oh look, wow, I have caps lock too. Sweet.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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[x] signed Big Papi for loose change in 2003

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Who had his best year in his career in 2007.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

Whenever I see Theo I think of all those high stakes kids like sbrugby and Stox. Younger than me, smarter than me, more successful. But I love 'em anyways. Those guys learned me how to play some good. Theo arrived and the burden was lifted. Skill and his good karma, whatever balance of the two I don't care.

He had what it took for the club to hire him and combine sabermetric and big payroll. So his youth and smarts and whatever else got the Sox to make this gamble should be counted in his favor.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

I think Theo is overhyped. Everyone makes mistakes from time to time. But he does seem like a pretty good GM.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

I think the Red Sox are proof that you can approach problem solving really well, yet still end up missing a large % of the time.

their mistakes happen to be more visible/magnified than lots of teams.

basically, Fooled by Randomness

I'm pretty sure that if the current mgmt group ran the team for 15 years they would be much more successfull than most other teams, but in the short term lots of weird stuff can happen.

in that regard, evaluating GM's is like evaluting players, but the sample size you need is much longer.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

I don't necessarily agree with this: in that regard, evaluating GM's is like evaluting players, but the sample size you need is much longer.


If you have a near limitless budget, you shouldn't be given as much time.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

Theo has had his ups and downs. I don't think he's bad, I don't think he's great. I still believe Larry Lucchino has a lot to do with the Sox success.

First the bad:

The talk of this has been quashed lately, but I believe Theo did not want to do the Nomar deal and he felt Lucchino bullied him on that one.

The ss situation has been a comedy of errors. They had the best choice in '04 when they got Cabrera. Letting him go for Renterria (when the two had roughly equivalent stats) was flat out wrong. Then at least he makes up for it with A-Gon, who is only the best ss on earth. Then he overpays for Lugo who is fast, but inferior both offensively and defensively to all the previous guys at the position.

J.D. Drew. No need for anything else to be said on this one.

The Suppan trade deadline deal in '03.

The mishandling of Cla Meredith and Craig Hansen.

Now the good:

Theo has been very good about cutting ties before the player deteriorates, a la Pedro & Damon.

Josh Beckett. Whether he really did recognize that having Lowell included and the combined salries made it a steal is irrelelvant. It worked out.

Ortiz.

The growth and prospering of the minor league system. This may be the best aspect of Theo's tenure so far.

The half-right deal: Gagne. They signed him in case Oki wore out. Guess what? Oki wore out. Nobody could have foreseen such a terrible run by Gagne. They needed a bat and went after Dye, but ultimately, the Chisox made him unavailable. Ironically, if they get Dye, Jacoby Ellsbury is a non-factor in September.

The future?

Johan Santana. The Sox can fill some gaps the Twins have. Package CoCo Crisp along with their best non-Navajo position player prospect and either Lester and Masterson, or just Buccholtz and you have a devastating top 2 in Josh & Johan, and Daisuke will improve.

I give Theo a B+

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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If you have a near limitless budget, you shouldn't be given as much time.

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the Red Sox really don't spend a TOM more than teams like the Mets, Angels, Dodgers, etc, so it's not nearly limitless.

anyways, I'm saying GM's are as susceptible to variance as players are. Sometimes you get really lucky (Ortiz, Okajima). Sometimes a new huge $$ FA decides to have the worst year of his life/terrible year (JD Drew, Renteria). And when you consider that you're not turning over a huge % of your roster every year (ie you're only making a few key major league personnel decisions every year) running good/bad in acquisitions for a couple years in a row will give you a grade that probably isn't in tune with how good or bad you really are.

combine that with how long it takes to develop major league talent - which is critical for any team - and judging a GM after only 3 or 4 years is probably a mistake.

at the same time, if 100% of your decisions have been awful, you probably aren't a good gm.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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has been legitimately awful in the free agent market

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Are you serious?

In 2002 their infield was Tony Clark, Rey Sanchez, Shea Hillenbrand and Nomar, with Brian Daubach at DH.

In 2003 their infield was Kevin Millar, Todd Walker, Bill Mueller and Nomar, with David Ortiz at DH.

In 2004 they added Mark Bellhorn.

Now, you may be saying that Epstein has been awful at the HIGH-PROFILE free agent market. Edgar Renteria, Matt Clement, Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew support that. At the same time, recognize that he found Keith Foulke, he kept Jason Varitek, and that most of the major upgrades were acquired in trades.

More importantly, to those who say he has infinite money, he made the decision to let go of Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Bill Mueller, Derek Lowe, Pedro Martinez and Orlando Cabrera. I bet most (~80%) of the GMs in the league would have overpaid to keep most of these guys out of loyalty for their ties to the 04 World Series team.

Well, 3 years later, Damon is nowhere near his 2004 level and the Yanks are stuck with him for 2 more years. Nixon slugged .336 this year. Mueller retired due to injury. Lowe is somehow successful. Pedro had a 4.48 ERA last year, and missed the season this year. Cabrera hit an empty .300 this year; he has no power and can't draw a walk.

Finally, he's traded for Schilling, Beckett and Lowell, and the farm system was still good enough to churn out Papelbon, Youkilis, Pedroia, Delcarmen, Ellsbury and Meredith. The best prospects they gave up were Hanley Ramirez, who was a long-shot to succeed but has turned into a hell of a player, and Freddy Sanchez, who is like Dustin Pedroia without the walks.

Theo Epstein, best GM in the league no doubt. It's not a coincidence the Sox are back in the World Series.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

I don't think Hanley was a 'long shot' to succeed, but otherwise it's a nice post.

Oh and the best GM thing is pretty silly, partly because I really doubt he is (Beane, Riccardi), partly because it's really hard to analyze with all the market differences. Top 5 is probably accurate.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

The only deal I disagreed with at the time was letting O-Cab go, (not that he's a world beater, just that there are so few SS who aren't a complete mess it seems) and I'm frightened that they will make a similar mistake with Lowell this winter.

The Gagne deal was a +EV bet that didn't work. Gabbard will be a back of the rotation guy on second division clubs for his whole career. Murphy might turn into a decent player, but the odds are decidedly on "not".

Clement getting skulled has to sort of give him a pass on that one right? It's not like he signed a guy with a history of arm issues whose arm then gave out.

Coco has been a disappointment, but not an especially high priced one, especially compared to Damon. Plus it looks like we're going to get away with it, as Jacoby is pretty clearly ready.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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In 2002 their infield was Tony Clark, Rey Sanchez, Shea Hillenbrand and Nomar, with Brian Daubach at DH.

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Wow.

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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In 2002 their infield was Tony Clark, Rey Sanchez, Shea Hillenbrand and Nomar, with Brian Daubach at DH.

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Wow.

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How soon did we forget!

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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Oh and the best GM thing is pretty silly, partly because I really doubt he is (Beane, Riccardi),

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1 out of 2 aint bad

Re: One of my friends thinks Theo Epstein is an overated GM.
 

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In 2002 their infield was Tony Clark, Rey Sanchez, Shea Hillenbrand and Nomar, with Brian Daubach at DH.

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Wow.

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maybe wow, maybe not wow. The only fair way to evaluate Epstein is to look at the available payroll at the time of a personnel move and then look at the available personnel options that fit within that budget. Of course this is difficult to do since the GM generally has far superior market information to even the intelligent hardcore baseball fan. In any event, he has put a World Series caliber team together so congrats to him. From this thread it looks like Epstein maybe shouldn't get so much credit for the Beckett acquisition. I also think the Red Sox got stupid lucky with Lowell's production. He must have found a new chemical.