crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

the title of the thread means that i'll post plays when i have no further use in keeping them secret; i.e. i've hit my wagering limits at the books offering good lines, or ran out of cash to place bets at B&M books.

first one is a freebie: take colorado +195 for game 1 and boston -230 to win the Series. each is +EV on its own IMO, and the combination reduces risk considerably. as i said a few weeks ago about another combo bet, this is a great way to start your gambling hedge fund.

i'll be on a plane to vegas in a few hours and hopefully hitting the books shortly after landing, so expect a report tonight on what's out there.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Sox -227 at SIA, $550 max. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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Sox -227 at SIA, $550 max. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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They're -220 at sportsbook

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

SIA is the only poorly-rated [formerly B-rated] book I have money left at. You should avoid SB like the plague.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

FWIW, you can get +195 at 5Dimes and -230 at Bodog. I'm sure there are other places with similar/better prices, but for anyone too lazy to look...

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Does anyone have a recommendation for how to allocate a given portion of their bankroll over these two bets? (i.e., you want to bet $X total, put Z%*X on Colorado to win game 1 and (100%-Z%)*X on Boston winning the series).

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Colorado is only +175 for game 1 on Bodog [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Colorado +200 on Matchbook. Comes out to +196 after the fee.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

crockpot,

What are your estimated game lines for this series? King Yao has given his guesstimates as Game 1 66.0%, Game 2 63.0%, Game 3 54.0%, Game 4 50.0%, Game 5 58.0%, Game 6 63.0%, and Game 7 62.0%. These equate to a 70% series win for BOS, which is close to the observed market price.

Your odds seem to be giving BOS a lower probability of winning Game 1 but a higher probability of winning Game 4. I'm curious where else you differ to get a higher series win percentage for BOS.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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Colorado +200 on Matchbook. Comes out to +196 after the fee.

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It's actually better than that because Matchbook has reduced all commissions to 1% for baseball this post-season.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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Colorado +200 on Matchbook. Comes out to +196 after the fee.

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It's actually better than that because Matchbook has reduced all commissions to 1% for baseball this post-season.

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Didn't know that. +198 then, right?

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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Didn't know that. +198 then, right?

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Yeah, and it's actually been going since the regular season. Not postseason only.

Also, if you're looking to bet the series, the price is -226/+220 right now, so if you put out an offer for -221, you'll probably get it matched.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Boston series price at -225 now on Bodog.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

if anyone is interested in the ideal hedge amount for this bet combination, it's a complex calculation, but i can give you a simple xls file that helps.

live books were a desolate wasteland full of markets with 200% theoretical holds. (palms had NE -500 to win AFC). what's worse, the once-good Greek lines have been bet down, plus they opened the "win 3 straight games" Yes at -165 instead of +140. lame on all counts.

not sure any props are really going to be any good outside of series and game lines. i guess i'll restrict the thread to those for now...

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Opened at -125, moved to -140 really fast (still a little value), then to -165/+135, which is no good on either side.

I've run through the 5D and Greek series result props with Yao's numbers from his blog, and the only one that was out of line was Boston +3 -3000 (his numbers gave -3100), which is a miniscule edge, and most of the other props were square in the middle using his numbers. I know yours are different since you come up with a significantly different series % line, so maybe you'll have some luck.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

crockpot,

I'm interested in knowing the ideal hedge amount for the bet. I have zero handicapping skills and really am just trying to find a good risk/reward balance. I already have some initial bets in, but I can tweak it if needed (even though some of these odds have moved).

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

What's are the odds of a team sweeping? Bodog has the following prop:


Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox - Will either team sweep the series

Yes +300
No -600


Doesn't seem to be any value on either side, but I'd be interested in knowing the mathematical % chance of sweeping for either team.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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What's are the odds of a team sweeping? Bodog has the following prop:


Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox - Will either team sweep the series

Yes +300
No -600


Doesn't seem to be any value on either side, but I'd be interested in knowing the mathematical % chance of sweeping for either team.

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Yao's numbers give BOS in 4 an 11.2% likelihood and COL in 4 a 2.9% likelihood. A sweep thus occurs 14.1% of the time (fair at +608) using his guesstimated lines. The "No" has a 0.22% edge if Yao's lines are perfect.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Meh, probably not enough of an edge.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

assuming you risked 2300 to win 1000 on the red sox, risk about 325 on rockies game 1 at +195.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

lol propaments.

Ellis Island has props on exact world series result. rockies 4-2 and rockies 4-3 each pay out 2-1, versus a market price of rockies +200 to win the series. for another comparison, i bet the rockies 4-2 line at +1100 online. (this was as a hedge; the line is only slightly +EV IMO.)

still not seeing a lot out there, though the combination of game 1 and series bets become even stronger if you can find +200 and -220 on them.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Are any MVP props available?

I want know who's the favorite but am at work and can't go to the sites.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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Are any MVP props available?

I want know who's the favorite but am at work and can't go to the sites.

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Bodog has a $300 max series mvp prop up. Some notables:

Beckett, Ramirez, Ortiz, Holliday each 5/1
Francis, Helton, Pedroia, papelbon, Lowell each 10/1

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

How often does a closer win the MVP award? The Greek has these same props up..checking right now to see if all the odds are the same.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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How often does a closer win the MVP award? The Greek has these same props up..checking right now to see if all the odds are the same.

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Not often:

1974 - Rollie Fingers
1996 - John Wetteland
1999 - Mariano Rivera

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Series Price: Boston Red Sox -225 $4,500.00 $2,000.00 caribsports

How much should I bet on the Rockies in game 1?

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

If you want to put a little more down at a better price, -220 at Bodog...

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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Series Price: Boston Red Sox -225 $4,500.00 $2,000.00 caribsports

How much should I bet on the Rockies in game 1?

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According to the proportion that crockpot posted above (with the Rockies at +195), you should bet $636 on game 1.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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Are any MVP props available?

I want know who's the favorite but am at work and can't go to the sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

William Hill has Beckett, Papi, Manny at 6-1, Holliday 10-1, Helton 12-1, pretty much everyone else between 14's and 20's.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Rockies don't sweep is at -2950, which has value if you trust Kind Yao's numbers (and probably crockpot's numbers too). But it is heavily correlated with BOS winning the series so most of us probably don't want to bet it.

Bodog has will there be a run scored in the first inning with YES at +130 which I think has a ton of value.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

The line run scored in first inning line is up to +140 at bodog. that is way off, you can arb it with -135 No at 5dimes (and I think at pinny) or you can just hit it because that is the side with teh value.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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The line run scored in first inning line is up to +140 at bodog. that is way off, you can arb it with -135 No at 5dimes (and I think at pinny) or you can just hit it because that is the side with teh value.

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pinny has the same +140 line.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
The line run scored in first inning line is up to +140 at bodog. that is way off, you can arb it with -135 No at 5dimes (and I think at pinny) or you can just hit it because that is the side with teh value.

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tytytyty...freerolling on a run in the first inning [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

bodog -220 boston
mb +234 colorado

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

This thread convinced me to make the following wagers (Pinny):

COL ML +202
COL +1.5 -106

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
The line run scored in first inning line is up to +140 at bodog. that is way off, you can arb it with -135 No at 5dimes (and I think at pinny) or you can just hit it because that is the side with teh value.

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YES is a winnerrr. Thanks for pointing it out.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
The line run scored in first inning line is up to +140 at bodog. that is way off, you can arb it with -135 No at 5dimes (and I think at pinny) or you can just hit it because that is the side with teh value.

[/ QUOTE ]

damn, didn't check this online. i did hit it at green valley ranch.

pedroia homer has to be the best way to hit that bet.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Crock do you think that there is any hope to consistently find value in props like these (score in first inning, first team to score, more 1st inning Ks thrown, first HR, etc.) or is there too much juice to do it. Do the online books put them up during the regular season too or just for the playoffs?

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Crock do you think that there is any hope to consistently find value in props like these (score in first inning, first team to score, more 1st inning Ks thrown, first HR, etc.) or is there too much juice to do it. Do the online books put them up during the regular season too or just for the playoffs?

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they do put them up for regular season games.

whether or not there's value is iffy. i don't analyze them full-time, because you're unlikely to find a good line unless the tourists are betting the wrong side, and tourists don't often bet obscure props for regular season games. this is also why nfl props are better during the super bowl than for other games.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

why the [censored] is beckett still in? the red sox are channeling the spirit of bob brenly here.