$114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

Button is dutchslugger (he's not super but knows to push wide here). BB is poker_in_pb who know how to play the bubble.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) TightPoker converter

UTG (t1460)
Button (t9420)
Hero (t1350)
BB (t1270)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t9370</font>, Hero?

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

i'm leaning towards a call here... run it through SNGWiz but i'm pretty sure you're going to be good

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

call, d.p. would be proud.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

You can fold to the money here and finishing 1st is a distant dream.

I fold.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can fold to the money here and finishing 1st is a distant dream.

I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I think we need AK/TT here and even still it might just be wiser to take the guaranteed cash and even tighten the range a little more than that to JJ+. One double up 60% of the time doesnt do much to help compared to the 40% of the time we get owned here

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

I he's tight you need KK+.
Otherwise you need 88+ or AKs.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

You should fold without JJ+ maybe 10s if he is shoving a lot. I wouldn't call with AK.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

Did anyone run SNGPT?

pipb is pushing 100%, if shortie double up in the next 2 hands I think we are pretty much screwed...I like a call here given that we are massively ahead of his range.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

I really like a call.
It's far away from needing like JJ+ or KK+ as posted above, lol.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

Folding here in no way guarantees me money. If that was the case it'd be an easy fold.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

If you fold, BB calls 100% right ?
If he wins, the new BB (UTG) has to call a push 100% of the time right ?
Then you get your chance to double.

So well, you're not strictly guaranted the money but have a better shot that the probable 55-65% to win you get here when calling, imo.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

Seems like it has to be a fold. Doubling up only puts you at 5bb, which still isn't great. For you to lose, 2 players have to win all ins and you have to lose yours.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

My gut was to call, given that he's pushing so wide.
My luck is if I don't shortie doubles up and I go OTM.

However lots of smart people say to fold so what do I know?

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

You can read harrington vol III for explanation.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like it has to be a fold. Doubling up only puts you at 5bb, which still isn't great. For you to lose, 2 players have to win all ins and you have to lose yours.

[/ QUOTE ]

DD I do think having 5BB in this context is a huge advantage because is almost certainly locking the money and a huge lead vs third.

PIPB might not push over one of the other villains just to keep the bubble alive.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can read harrington vol III for explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did not notice there is a section on high buy ins online SNGs!

BAN!

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

I might try to run some numbers later, but you are correct that doubling up pretty much locks up 3rd and leaves a very good chance at 2nd, and a small chance at 1st. However, the difference between 4th and 3rd is huge, while the difference between 2nd and 3rd is negligible. ATo isn't even a 2-1 fav against NE2 cards, if he is pushing that wide. I'd rather take my (several) chances of the other 2 busting/doubling up on my BB.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

I just run the numbers, if PIPB pushes 100% ATo gives 0.4$ so basically calling or folding is more or less equivalent.

If PIPB pushes anything better than 100% (which I doubt) is a fold.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

I really doubt button is pushing 100%. IMO, pushing 100% from the button knowing that BB is callling with almost any hand is really bad.

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

[ QUOTE ]
I really doubt button is pushing 100%. IMO, pushing 100% from the button knowing that BB is callling with almost any hand is really bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

why should he call with any hand given opponents' stack sizes?

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

if BB calls with top 70% pushing ATC is still profitable

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

[ QUOTE ]
if BB calls with top 70% pushing ATC is still profitable

[/ QUOTE ]
Stack sizes the way they are. I def. push any two being villain. I think anyone thats good would

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can read harrington vol III for explanation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did not notice there is a section on high buy ins online SNGs!

BAN!

[/ QUOTE ]

I did! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img], I think this is a clear fold. You should probably call TT+ and AQs+, or even tighter

Re: $114: AT bubble w/ shorties
 

i'd be pretty surprised is dutchslugger is pushing less than ATC. pokerpb will usually call here, but i guess he folds his bottom 30% or so.

anyway, i fold, because i will have to puke if i bubble and pokerpb makes the money.