NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Well, is it?

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

id much rather bet them to cover til they finally dont

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

but to answer your question, obv

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

free money yeah

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Washington isn't bad enough that 2-3 defensive/special teams TDs wouldn't give them the win.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Washington is an above average team. Looking at sagarin and DVOA, they're top 10.

NE is -16.5 (well, at home, but still). jeez.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

I have an open leg of a three team parlay I need to close out. Before the season I bet Michigan over Appalachian St and USC over Stanford for free money. Then I fell into a coma but now I'm back and better than ever and I need to cash out this third leg. This game seems like a great opportunity. What do you guys think?

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Redskins homer here.....

I'd wait for a better opportunity. The Skins are very up and down, but when they're up they are a very good team. Possibly the best pass defense in the league. Both Jon Kitna and Brett Favre were leading the league in passing yards going into their games against the Skins. They threw for 106 and 188 yards(and 60 of that was a missed tackle on a slant). I dunno...it seems like nobody can stop that Patriots offense right now, but this will be their biggest test so far.

When they have the ball, the Skins have the ability to control the clock with Portis and Betts and short passes to Cooley. Also Campbell has become quite adept at picking up key 3rd down conversions on scrambles.


It could be a blowout for sure- don't get me wrong. But the Skins are just the type of team that could shock the world and beat the Pats......and then lose the very next week against the Jets.

And for the record, I think -1500 is a bad bet.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

The Pats are really 94% to win that game? Seriously? Washington's hung tough with some pretty good teams so far. Plus there's gotta be some chance Brady gets injured at which point based on how well Cassel's played you've almost gotta think the line becomes Washington -1500 (hyperbole obv)...

- C -

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

There is no free money in the NFL.


(I make this exact post several times a year.)

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

I figure that Gibbs isn't one to get out of his game plan. It will be a big time ball control offense where he works the play clock and gets a ton of touches for Portis and Betts in the first half, so that they remain close. It could be a touchdown game going into the half, if this plans works.

Washington's defense is one of the better in the league, and must improved with adding London Fletcher and L. Landry...I think they can keep the Patriots under 31 points.

New England 28
Washington 17.

Given the Patriots running woes and the Redskins above average pass defense I think I like Washington here.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
When they have the ball, the Skins have the ability to control the clock with Portis and Betts and short passes to Cooley. Also Campbell has become quite adept at picking up key 3rd down conversions on scrambles.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a Redskins homer as well but I have to take issue w/ this. The offense is in shambles now due to a banged up offensive line and I have no faith in our ability to control the clock. Ladell Betts isn't being given a real opportunity and Clinton Portis does not seem to be as explosive as he once was. Cooley has been invisible in the passing game since halftime at Lambeau Field. We could cover the spread but did you see the way we gave Kurt Warner all [censored] day? Tom Brady will pick us apart if Greg Williams doesn't dial up some timely blitzes, which he never seems to do anymore since he'd rather ensure that we don't give up the big play.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
There is no free money in the NFL.


(I make this exact post several times a year.)

[/ QUOTE ]

What a dumb question. Your gonna bet 1500 to win 100. This has low upside and very high downside. Plus i bet you dont have the balls to make this bet anyway. Someone made a similar post about the 'boys and the bills and look how that turned out.

Brady could do down, turnovers, etc.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Washington isn't bad enough that 1-2 defensive/special teams TDs at a crucial time wouldn't give them the win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Seriously. The concept of a ML bridgejumper in the NFL is laughable.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

I actually thought this post was half joking and we wouldnt need all these "no free money in the nfl" posts. This is pretty much the worst league to bridge jump.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

I'm a Patriots homer and I wouldn't make this bet. So much can go wrong, despite how good the Pats are.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

wtf is wrong with this line? a 4-2 team with the 5th best defense in the league is a 16.5 point dog?! I wonder if a line like this has happened before.

I bet the public money is still lopsided on the Patriots. I wonder where the sharp money is. I would guess Washington.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
wtf is wrong with this line? a 4-2 team with the 5th best defense in the league is a 16.5 point dog?! I wonder if a line like this has happened before.


[/ QUOTE ]

The Patriots' D is 4th best in the NFL while the Redskins' offense is near the bottom.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

I took a -1400 NE line with a friend when they played at miami bc gambling is fun, m'kay?

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Redskins secondary is pretty decent with Taylor (from da U) and Rogers (from Auburn) probably being the best two. Rogers will probably be on Moss. It should be a good one; however, I think NE will win by 14 or more. Not free money IMO.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
wtf is wrong with this line? a 4-2 team with the 5th best defense in the league is a 16.5 point dog?! I wonder if a line like this has happened before.

I bet the public money is still lopsided on the Patriots. I wonder where the sharp money is. I would guess Washington

[/ QUOTE ]

The sharp money has been against NE for every big spread. I've drunk that kool-aid a few times this year too and I havn't cashed yet. So ya know what? No more until NE shows me they are saddled with too many to cover. No matter how high the line goes I'm off until they SHOW me it's too many.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

The random chance of turnovers alone in this game makes Washington, or any other NFL team, profitable at 11:1. Of course you get burned a few times along the way taking the dog, but OMG this is so ridiculous even the Pats practice squad players are taking Skins on money line this Sunday...

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The random chance of turnovers alone in this game makes Washington, or any other NFL team, profitable at 11:1. Of course you get burned a few times along the way taking the dog, but OMG this is so ridiculous even the Pats practice squad players are taking Skins on money line this Sunday...

[/ QUOTE ]

More importantly, so is Brady [and Kraft.]

He's got kids to feed, you know.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Big dogs cover most often IIRC of any NFL subset. Sample size issues obv, but they seem to be the best ones. Except NE seems determined to be rigged.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Even in this last game I think NE looked better than they really are.
Brady has a couple of lousy passes but he gets saves when Moss makes ridiculous catches on them. That last game could very easily have been much closer at halftime. And then Miami scores 2 TD's in the 3rd Q that could have made it 28-21 or something.

Don't get me wrong. NE is an insanely awesome team and their final-scores aren't a fluke or anything. But every once in awhile Brady may actually throw an interception if Moss is unable to bail him out. And it's certainly possible that WAS is good enough to take advantage of such a situation.
Not likely of course....but definitely possible.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Even if you go all in (assuming a 100 unit Br) you are only gaining 6.66666%. A better option is to play the opposite of all Dr. Bob's plays at two units a piece. That will make you the same amount, at least by his results this year thus far.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I took a -1400 NE line with a friend when they played at miami bc gambling is fun, m'kay?

[/ QUOTE ]

Miami <<< Washington

1400 < 1500

- C -

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

I took Redskins +27... (10 point 3team teaser)
I think pats will definitely win the game but for no more than 27 points...

any thoughts?

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I took Redskins +27... (10 point 3team teaser)
I think pats will definitely win the game but for no more than 27 points...

any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

great gimmick account

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
wtf is wrong with this line? a 4-2 team with the 5th best defense in the league is a 16.5 point dog?! I wonder if a line like this has happened before.

I bet the public money is still lopsided on the Patriots. I wonder where the sharp money is. I would guess Washington.

[/ QUOTE ]
Closest thing I can think of was San Francisco being a laughable 19 point favorite over San Diego about 11 years ago in the Super Bowl.

Course, they cover, but to think they win that game over 97% or w/e that would convert to is simply retarded.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I took a -1400 NE line with a friend when they played at miami bc gambling is fun, m'kay?

[/ QUOTE ]

Miami <<< Washington

1400 < 1500

[/ QUOTE ]

And also, while I think the -1500 bet against Washington is bad, I'm not opposed to bridegejumpers in general. Just understand that -1500 means you're still getting two-outered some of the time. -1500 and -million are not the same at all.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wtf is wrong with this line? a 4-2 team with the 5th best defense in the league is a 16.5 point dog?! I wonder if a line like this has happened before.

I bet the public money is still lopsided on the Patriots. I wonder where the sharp money is. I would guess Washington.

[/ QUOTE ]
Closest thing I can think of was San Francisco being a laughable 19 point favorite over San Diego about 11 years ago in the Super Bowl.

Course, they cover, but to think they win that game over 97% or w/e that would convert to is simply retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Money line was -700, iirc. Not -3200. [Also 49ers had beat SD by 23 already in reg season.]

Carl Icahn put $7mm on the 49ers to win $1mm. The IRS started cracking down on SB record-keeping after that.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

Goliath -2500 = FREE MONEY!

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wtf is wrong with this line? a 4-2 team with the 5th best defense in the league is a 16.5 point dog?! I wonder if a line like this has happened before.

I bet the public money is still lopsided on the Patriots. I wonder where the sharp money is. I would guess Washington.

[/ QUOTE ]
Closest thing I can think of was San Francisco being a laughable 19 point favorite over San Diego about 11 years ago in the Super Bowl.

Course, they cover, but to think they win that game over 97% or w/e that would convert to is simply retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Money line was -700, iirc. Not -3200. [Also 49ers had beat SD by 23 already in reg season.]

Carl Icahn put $7mm on the 49ers to win $1mm. The IRS started cracking down on SB record-keeping after that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how it could be -700 when a 16.5 point line is -1500. Were ML's really that far out of whack at the time? What is -700 usually now, like a 10 point favorite?

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

You're aware that the public comes outta the woodwork to bet the SB?

And that virtually all of those people like betting +700, not laying -700? [and the 'fair' line on NWE v Wash is not -1500, ftr, and NWE is at home, whereas SB is on neutral field.]

That may not have been the closing line, but that was a WA line in Las Vegas SBs. Feel free to call up a LV book and check those odds.

Here's a news story about another big gambler:
'The largest "legal" wager ever made in Las Vegas was an 8 to 1 money line bet, between the San Francisco 49ers and the San Diego Chargers in Superbowl XXIX. An unidentified gambler wagers $2.4 million at the Mirage Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas on San Francisco -800.'

[They seem to have the size wrong from what was later reported in stories on Icahn. Not that it matters much btw -700 and -800, 88.9% v 87.5%]

A comparison might be Texas v USC in BCS recently:
Lines went from +8/+260 to +7/+200 by gametime, even below +200 at many sites.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

I like the Redskins at +11150 (not a typo) on Pinny right now. Check it.
What do they do when they make mistakes? Do they cancel the bet?

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

this one, yes. they don't pay out on typos this bad.

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

so do they cancel the bet before the game, or do they cancel it after?
here's my thinking.

Skins win - they say "sorry, was a typo, bet is cancelled"
Patriots win - they just take your money and say nothing

aside from not betting on obvious bad lines, how do you prevent this from happening?

edit: or would they maybe honor it at what it should have been +1150

Re: NE -1500 Free Money?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wtf is wrong with this line? a 4-2 team with the 5th best defense in the league is a 16.5 point dog?! I wonder if a line like this has happened before.

I bet the public money is still lopsided on the Patriots. I wonder where the sharp money is. I would guess Washington.

[/ QUOTE ]
Closest thing I can think of was San Francisco being a laughable 19 point favorite over San Diego about 11 years ago in the Super Bowl.

Course, they cover, but to think they win that game over 97% or w/e that would convert to is simply retarded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Money line was -700, iirc. Not -3200. [Also 49ers had beat SD by 23 already in reg season.]

Carl Icahn put $7mm on the 49ers to win $1mm. The IRS started cracking down on SB record-keeping after that.

[/ QUOTE ]
You guys are close.

It was 2.4m to win 300k.



[ QUOTE ]
Greatest Super Bowl Betting Moments
by Robert Ferringo - 02/01/2006
1) The largest single Super Bowl bet on record in Las Vegas was attached to San Francisco in SB XXIX. The line was the 49ers giving 18.5 points to San Diego, but the bettor dropped $2.4 million on San Fran on the money line. The game was a farce, with the Niners winning by 23. However, that $2.4 mil paid at just 1-to-8. Meaning all of that risk only paid off for $300,000. Of course, "only" is a relative term.


[/ QUOTE ]
There was a million dollar payout, but it wasn't on a money line.


[ QUOTE ]
---The single biggest recorded Super Bowl payday was to Bob Stupak, the legendary gambler and casino owner from Vegas. Stupak dropped a cool $1 million on Cincinnati, plus-7, against San Francisco in 1989. The 49ers captured the Lombardi Trophy on the famous Montana-to-Taylor touchdown, but failed to cover the number with their 20-16 victory

[/ QUOTE ]

If I recall correctly, Stupak was fighting with a woman and pissed off, he put 1 million on Cincy +7.

Whats ironic is that he had thoughts of hedging at halftime (tied 3-3 I think) taking SF at -3 or -3 1/2 for 500K.

He didn't, but if he had he would have hit both ways!