AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

Villain's stats hover in the 18.75/6.25/0.67 over 16 hands (not a significant dataset but helped me make my decision on the river). He didn't seem out of line in any of the hands I saw him involved in.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (5.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

I obviously don't like this river, and it is difficult for me to put him on a hand he, with his VPIP so low, will call a river bet but not raise me with a better hand.

Just wondering if this should have been a c/f instead of a c/c. Can't really justify hoping he would bluff at this river given the low AF.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

There is no way you can fold this. I would bet out here against most players. He either needs an 10,8 for a straight (no chance), KT (thats a very fishy CC), AJ, A9,A7 for 2 pair (fishy CC's again). AQ beats us. Yep, bet for value.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

Why didn't you just bet the river? If you get raised, you cannot think that TPTK is good with his low aggression factor. If you planned on calling if he bet anyway, then why not bet out. If he is calling you with a weak ace, then you will make more value on your hand, if he raises, then you can most likely fold. (given your read)

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way you can fold this. I would bet out here against most players. He either needs an 10,8 for a straight (no chance), KT (thats a very fishy CC), AJ, A9,A7 for 2 pair (fishy CC's again). AQ beats us. Yep, bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

As for the agression factor ... you realise its based on 3 hands right and he raised 1 of them? Vil probably called like 2 streets or something.

You cannot possibly start thinking of folding TPTK based on this AF.

If you check it is to induce a bluff from a busted draw.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
As for the agression factor ... you realise its based on 3 hands right and he raised 1 of them? Vil probably called like 2 streets or something.

You cannot possibly start thinking of folding TPTK based on the AF.

If you check it is to induce a bluff from a busted draw.

[/ QUOTE ]


I did not say that I would fold there, unless those stats were over a MUCH higher sample. I was merely responding to the OP who seemed pretty confident on his read.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you just bet the river? If you get raised, you cannot think that TPTK is good with his low aggression factor. If you planned on calling if he bet anyway, then why not bet out. If he is calling you with a weak ace, then you will make more value on your hand, if he raises, then you can most likely fold. (given your read)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the bolded parts, but not the rest. The rest of the post does not take into account the low VPIP.

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way you can fold this. I would bet out here against most players. He either needs an 10,8 for a straight (no chance), KT (thats a very fishy CC), AJ, A9,A7 for 2 pair (fishy CC's again). AQ beats us. Yep, bet for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

The hand ranges you put him on (mainly the two pair hands) with the exception of AJs are fishy CC pf and would be surprised to see that in showdown. I excluded AJs from his range after I eliminated the fact that I would have probably seen aggression on the turn.

The question is, what hand range does a tight player smooth call preflop but shows no aggression on the flop and turn? How does that hand range match up given the river? Do I bet for value here?

I don't see a weaker ace that can CC preflop that I can beat here save ATo which I don't consider given the tightness of our Villain.

I have some analysis to do before bed. Before I post the results I'd like to see more discussion.

Edit: Of course I have to trust the stats as that is the really the only piece of information that I have, along with my lack of notes due to his spectacularly unimaginative play and how this hand has played out.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you just bet the river? If you get raised, you cannot think that TPTK is good with his low aggression factor. If you planned on calling if he bet anyway, then why not bet out. If he is calling you with a weak ace, then you will make more value on your hand, if he raises, then you can most likely fold. (given your read)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the bolded parts, but not the rest. The rest of the post does not take into account the low VPIP.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think that your stats on this player really can't have much to do with it in this situation because you only have sixteen hands on him. His VPIP could be much higher or much lower, but you don't have enough of a sample size to determine either way.

Unless I missed something in your post, I think you need to look at this hand from the perspective that he is an unknown bad low limit player and bet the river for value.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

Goodnews, with only 16 hands for your stat read you don't have a stat read. Trying to do any deep thinking about his hand range isn't worth it because he is basically unknown. There a lot of hands an unknown will call down with and bet when you check here that you beat, so call. You don't have the read to c/f this.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

I think this is a pretty easy bet/call? I agree that stats are meaningless over so few hands, in particualr agression factor. I would only check/call if I think a busted draw is a big part of his range. Check/fold is entirely off the table.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

I think betting the river is better than c/c. I think he would have raised you either on the flop or turn with 2 pair.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

wtf bet the river

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
wtf bet the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

c/c here is horrible. if you c/c you might as well c/f because he isnt betting anything here for you that you beat besides a bluff. and it takes a real moron to try and bluff a pfr on this board.

bet the river pls.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

this sample size is way too small...those stats indicate that he probably is tightish but you cant really read too much into aggro factor here.

I certainly dont c/f here.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

I just threw up in my mouth. Were you watching WPT from Niagara Fallsview or something when you played this hand?

Canada already has one supernit (and it ain't me if you watched that tourney)

BET THE MF RIVER AND CALL THE BET IF IT COMES!

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

lol smurph for once gets it somewhat right

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
Canada already has one supernit (and it ain't me if you watched that tourney

[/ QUOTE ]

Smurph64...

I am new here. Which player were you the Fallsview WPT tourney?

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

b/f the river.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
c/c here is horrible. if you c/c you might as well c/f because he isnt betting anything here for you that you beat besides a bluff. and it takes a real moron to try and bluff a pfr on this board.

bet the river pls.

[/ QUOTE ]

please to explain what we do if we bet and get raised?

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
c/c here is horrible. if you c/c you might as well c/f because he isnt betting anything here for you that you beat besides a bluff. and it takes a real moron to try and bluff a pfr on this board.

bet the river pls.

[/ QUOTE ]

please to explain what we do if we bet and get raised?

[/ QUOTE ]

fold.

if you bring up a "dont fold tptk for 1 bet on the river" argument I really have to question your handreading ability.

villain is calling your river bet with a lot of hands that you beat (Ax, AT) but wont bet the river himself if you check. thats why you bet. in that same vein he is not raising the river with anything you beat and thus you can easily fold to a raise.

i have a feeling you are going to say something about not folding for one bet. on certain boards, this is true. however, with 3 broadway cards out there vs a pfr, you are virtually never being bluff raised on the river.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
c/c here is horrible. if you c/c you might as well c/f because he isnt betting anything here for you that you beat besides a bluff. and it takes a real moron to try and bluff a pfr on this board.

bet the river pls.

[/ QUOTE ]

please to explain what we do if we bet and get raised?

[/ QUOTE ]

usually fold.

if you bring up a "dont fold tptk for 1 bet on the river" argument I really have to question your handreading ability.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have discussed the b/f line with other players and it is totally valid. Though whether it achieves more value than a c/c, I am not totally convinced.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
c/c here is horrible. if you c/c you might as well c/f because he isnt betting anything here for you that you beat besides a bluff. and it takes a real moron to try and bluff a pfr on this board.

bet the river pls.

[/ QUOTE ]

please to explain what we do if we bet and get raised?

[/ QUOTE ]

usually fold.

if you bring up a "dont fold tptk for 1 bet on the river" argument I really have to question your handreading ability.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have discussed the b/f line with other players and it is totally valid. Though whether it achieves more value than a c/c, I am not totally convinced.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you think he's bluffing you on the river when you check?

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

:g:

That tiny sample size makes his stats basically irrelevant.
b/c&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;c/c&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;& gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt ;&gt;&gt;&gt;c/f

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

bet/fold in this case is not correct because he misplayed the hand if he raises the river most of the time.

Its well worth one extra bet call to find out what he could play that makes him win on the river.

QJs would be the only holding that follows his line. Maybe A10 for some people makes sense, but I would never cc A10.

As far as WPT NA Championship at Fallsview I was referring to the tourney from last year with 5 Cdns and John Juanda on the final table and one of the 'pros' from Canada had AK 3 times raised it preflop gets reraised preflop and he folds all 3 times. It was on City this weekend. Have no idea if the play schedule is the same for the US or not.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
As far as WPT NA Championship at Fallsview I was referring to the tourney from last year with 5 Cdns and John Juanda on the final table and one of the 'pros' from Canada had AK 3 times raised it preflop gets reraised preflop and he folds all 3 times. It was on City this weekend. Have no idea if the play schedule is the same for the US or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I supervised at the Final Table of the 2006 NAPC. I thought from your post, you were one of the final 6.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

LOL no sorry for the misrepresentation. Most I ever won in a MTT is 100 bucks in a freeroll on PS finishing 15th out of 3k.

Have no idea how these guys have the patience and stamina to sit and play for so long, I normally give props to these guys and it was cool seeing 5 Cdns at that tourney make the final but that one guy was embarrassing to watch.

Actually I was at Fallsview the weekend before meeting Wookiee for my first live experience and I saw a lot of guys going for the SnG Two table satellites. The buzz for that was wild I can't imagine how much fun it would ahve been supervising that event.

You should write about it for us.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should write about it for us.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give you my "insider's view" in 2 weeks after this year's North American Poker Championship ends on November 2nd.

Re: AKo - 0.50/1.00 Stars - River Line
 

* grunch *

c/c is fine IMO. There's a lot of draws there that he could call to the river and even bluff when induced. AF is low but over that sample it can't be trusted much.

Ok, just about every AX is ahead of you now but there's still some FDs or SDs in his cold-call range that would merit a c/c line on the river.

EDIT: ahemm.. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]