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Beat: $$$$ stolen from home tourny - analysis inside

I hosted a home poker tourney last Friday night. There were 18 players buying in for $25 each (I know we're ballas!) for a total of $450. The players were mostly "league" members. We formed a low-key league around 6 months ago as a way to get in some poker once or twice a month. Top 4 were to be paid. When it gets down to the top 4, the league manager goes over to his league folder to get the cash for the money presentation. It's at this point that he discovered it was missing. A side game had broken out and allegedly some of these players needed to make change and went into the folder to do that. My neighbor a reputable guy was the last to see it about 30-45 minutes before it was discovered missing. We turn my basement upside down and can't find it any where. It's at this point the amateur detectives begin throwing out theories. Here's what we came up with.

1- A friend of one of my friend's sisters has been playing with us for over a year. What I'm about to say next is major stereo typing but..... she's younger (25ish) and is probably the only one that $450 would make a difference to. She has a diamond nose chip and a bunch of ink. She's also hot but that's irrelevant. Sorry no pics! She has allegedly a shady past. Kelly was seen hovering near where the folder was placed. She also left about 10 minutes before the money was first discovered missing. The rest of the crew including myself are in our early 40s with above average paying jobs so the money isn't overly important to us. With the exception of....

2- My friend Dave who I've began to hang out with about a year ago. He has 2 kids that play with my kids (ages 8-10) and he's not much of a poker player. He made a big stink about needing to play really low stakes. He is also about to lose his job and his future is up in the air as he hasn't locked down another job yet. He also seemed to be the most vocal about blaming Kelly (#1 above). This may be a case of he who smelt it, dealt it. He who supplied it, denied it, etc. etc.

#3) Accidentally thrown out. Unlikely as one of my neighbors was one of the last to see the money as he made change from the cash during the side game about 30-45 minutes before we discovered it missing.

#4) The field. The final 4-5 from the main game have iron clad alibis (includes myself as I finished 4th - and as it turns out I'm glad I didn't go further!). There was only one other guy I didn't know and he seemed to be in the same demographic as the rest of us (has enough $$$ to not need to worry about vicking $450). My reputable neighbor who was the last to see the money, was seen making a clear announcement when he went into the folder to get change. “I’m taking out a ten, a five and 5 ones. I’m putting a twenty back in the folder. I’m putting the folder back.”

#5) Some kids including my own were down in the basement. This isn't very plausable since the oldest, my son is only 11 and knows better. Dave (#2) above made mention of the fact that there were kids in the vicinity. The next morning I half kiddingly mention the missing money to my son. Using my adept poker skills to see into his soul, I conclude rather quickly he had nothing to do with it. Now if I see $450 worth of candy bar wrappers in the den.................

So it was a major bummer and thankfully the winner was very good natured about being ripped out of ~ $200. It has thrown a shadow of doubt over the league and we now feel compelled to take safeguards in protecting the cash which is unfortunate. So to recap:

Brag: I finished ITM at a home tourney
Beat: No money presentation
Variance: Main suspect is hot