Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

Air Force @ New Mexico -6

Boston College @ V Tech -3

I want to bet on Thursday and night and was wondering what the early game feel was on these two games.

I am going to take Air Force plus the points.

I was all ready to load up on Vtech at +3 and then I noticed that they were actually giving points. I thought the line would be set in the exact same vein as the USF/Rutgers game, where the game would be evenly matched by the hom team gets points due to "rank" and public feel.

Now that Tech is giving three I have no idea where to bet. I'm still leaning tech, but wanted to see if someone had a strong feel for BC.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

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Air Force @ New Mexico -6

Boston College @ V Tech -3

I want to bet on Thursday and night and was wondering what the early game feel was on these two games.

I am going to take Air Force plus the points.

I was all ready to load up on Vtech at +3 and then I noticed that they were actually giving points. I thought the line would be set in the exact same vein as the USF/Rutgers game, where the game would be evenly matched by the hom team gets points due to "rank" and public feel.

Now that Tech is giving three I have no idea where to bet. I'm still leaning tech, but wanted to see if someone had a strong feel for BC.

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I lean BC at 3 (have 1 unit BC +3), but I think this one is pretty close to correct. Tech has been lucky with turnovers and doesn't have a lot of offense. BC is probably slightly better on a neutral, but Tech has a nice homefield advantage on a Thursday night. Both teams coming off bye weeks.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

Bills understated the biggest point - VT has one of the top home field advantages in football on Saturdays. Make it a Thursday night against the #2 in the country, while VT sits with only 1 loss - woweeee. I got VT at 2.5, thank goodness, because the game will be a battle.

This is BC's toughest test, and I won't lie, BC could win outright, too. Great game!

In the other, I won't bet it, but I lean AFA. They're flying under the radar and can keep it close.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

Added 2 more units on BC at 3.5.

I am pretty worried about the environment, but VT has really been unimpressive to me so far, especially offensively. Their only "good" outcomes have been disproportionately affected by turnovers. BC embarrassed them last year.

In what should be a close, low-scoring game, I really like BC now getting 3.5.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

VT may be great at home historically, but it certainly hasn't been the case this year. They're 0-3 ATS at home this season and have not come within a TD of covering in any of those games.

I actually think VT being overrated may be enough to cancel out the effects of the "higher ranked team on the road" bias and any overrating of BC. Even though it's a huge game, I might just have to stay away from this on the betting line. VT -3 looks like a really accurate line to me.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

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Bills understated the biggest point - VT has one of the top home field advantages in football on Saturdays. Make it a Thursday night against the #2 in the country, while VT sits with only 1 loss - woweeee. I got VT at 2.5, thank goodness, because the game will be a battle.

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this is actually sortof hard to determine, homefield advantage i mean. they're known for being loud, but their performances at home aren't hugely better than on the road.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

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VT may be great at home historically, but it certainly hasn't been the case this year. They're 0-3 ATS at home this season and have not come within a TD of covering in any of those games.

I actually think VT being overrated may be enough to cancel out the effects of the "higher ranked team on the road" bias and any overrating of BC. Even though it's a huge game, I might just have to stay away from this on the betting line. VT -3 looks like a really accurate line to me.

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Against Ohio, they won 28-7 and the line was -22.5 so they did come very close to covering. Against UNC they won by 7 and the line was -18.5 (line was too big in retrospect.) The other 2 home games were the emotional home opener against ECU (tribute to the shooting victims) and a 44-3 win over Wm & Mary (no line.) All of their home games have been early afternoon games where they have been big faves. I really don't think you can compare these to the atmosphere they will have with BC coming in. The home field advantage will be HUGE in this game IMO.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

Oops, sorry about that. I double-checked the line against UNC, but didn't bother against Ohio, just assuming that it was over 28. Still, I think giving them credit for some huge home advantage is a mistake when they've actually played better on the road this season than they have in Blacksburg.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

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Oops, sorry about that. I double-checked the line against UNC, but didn't bother against Ohio, just assuming that it was over 28. Still, I think giving them credit for some huge home advantage is a mistake when they've actually played better on the road this season than they have in Blacksburg.

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They have played 3 road games and one was @ LSU where they were +11 and lost by 41. Their last 2 games were both on the road and they covered both, so maybe it's just that they are improving. Maybe the early-season mood around campus after the shootings weighed heavily on them since everyone was looking to them to give them something to cheer for, and now they have gotten back to focusing on football. Regardless, we are talking about a Thur. night game with an undefeated conference foe coming in. I don't see how it won't be a monster HFA.

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I have 1 unit on VT -3 (before it moved). VT's special teams will win this one for them. I say they'll have 2 ST TD's and win by about 10 or 14.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

wtf. how can u assume they will have 2 special team scores.

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AF +210 to win 2 units.

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the line for BC moved to 3.5 and i had to take it.

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V. Tech is an insanely good special teams team.

At +3.5, though, it would be tough for me to take them. Luckily, I got it early.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

BC/VT Over 44 -110

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

AF +6, -105
AF +210
VT -3

Thinking about O47 in AF/NM.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

I had the same exact picks bob except I'm taking BC with the points at 3 1/2 and I got AF at 6 1/2.

I feel really good about Air Force tonight, but I'm not betting more than one unit as its college.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

Not really sure how this effects the game, but it is very wet down here in the Commonwealth today. I suspect this is a positive for BC, as it will likely calm the crowd a bit in Blacksburg. Tech will struggle to move the ball anyway, this can't be a positive for them.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

Yeah, at 3.5 I don't think I would touch VT.

But for 3 pts I'm good with it as BC just doesn't blow me away as much. 24-14 over UMass and 27-14 over ND and I don't think they looked very strong in either.
Although it is UMass's only loss this year and even though their schedule features the likes of Maine, Towson and Villanova it's possible I'm not giving enough credit to an okay win over a half-decent team.
Same goes for ND I guess. But they really are SO bad and BC just wasn't able to blow past them like I would expect of a truly good team...and like I would expect a team like VT to be able to do for that matter.

37-17 over Army which I saw parts of didn't really blow me away either. Army just lost 47-23 to Central Mich and 34-10 to GT.
Army was down only 16-10 in the 3rd Q and made it 29-17 in the 4th.

Some of the wins for BC look okay but they have far fewer 45-7 type wins for that schedule and far more games that were closer to actual struggles than I think a true #2 team should have.


VT seems to be finding their groove and while their competition hasn't exactly been mind-blowing I still don't think 41-23 AT Clemson and 43-14 AT Duke is anything to sneeze at.
Earlier it was mentioned that it appears VT's results are actually better on the road. But I think it's a matter of the team improving more at mid-season and it happened to coincide with a couple of away games.
Man those are some good scores for conference road-games.

And obviously I expect the Thursday night crowd at VT to be raucous and a big advantage for VT.


I don't feel THAT good about AF tonight. UNM is a pretty decent team. But I definitely think AF is undervalued and don't think they should be a 6.5 point dog here.
There will be some Thursday night fever momentum for the home-crowd in this one too. Even though it's only on versus-network it's still a pretty exciting game for UNM to get on TV at all. But I don't think the advantage is so much as to give them almost 7 points in a game that could be very back-and-forth and close-ish to even.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

MicroBob- FWIW, last Thursday night's game at TCU looked like about 2000 people were there and there was absolutely zero home field advantage. I'm not sure if that will be the same for UNM, but just thought I would mention it. Will the World Series or the BC game keep people at home?

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

A game at TCU is not the same as a game at UNM.
I saw parts of the TCU game and the crowd was pretty much what I expected it would be.
The UNM crowd will be larger and more enthusiastic.

TCU is kind of an afterthought sports-wise in that area.
Programs like TCU, Houston and SMU have a tough time drawing in their bigger cities where there is much greater interest in the Cowboys and schools like UT, TAMU and TT for example.

UNM is the big dog in their city and really for their whole state. They drew 42k vs. NMSU earlier this year and I expect a similar turnout for an important conference game against a psuedo-rival tonight unless they are on fall-break or have horrible weather or something else I'm not aware of.

Friend of mine lives in Albuquerque and goes to a few football and hoops games and says the fan-support is really pretty good there. This is the biggest and most popular sports 'franchise' they have.


I really doubt many people who want to attend will stay away just to watch the BC/VT game and probably not the world series.
That's kind of like asking if all those USC fans will stay home on a Saturday night because there's so many big games including OSU and the World Series on TV. Don't really know why a couple big games on the tube on Thursday night would have a greater effect on keeping fans home than on a Saturday with big games all over the place.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

My only plays tonight so far are the VT moneyline and Air Force +6.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

Leaning VT and Under...under very strong. Probably post officials plays closer to game time.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

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Leaning VT and Under...under very strong. Probably post officials plays closer to game time.

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Get in now if you want the under IMO.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

why take tech ml? Just buy the half point for much less juice.

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I like both road dogs tonight.

AIR FORCE +5.5 (+101) @ new mexico 1.0u to win 1.01u
BOSTON COLLEGE +3 (+103) @ vt 0.8u/0.824u

YTD 12-9 +1.625u

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

I can't make up my mind on the BC/VT spread, but taking an unbeaten team that has never scored less than 24 and has a pretty good defense against a team that has scored less than 24 twice for +130 seems like a no-brainer to me.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

guess i'm on vatech and new mexico....

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As I was deciding how to play the BC/VT game, the line moved to +140 for BC...I was surprised, but waited to see if it would move any higher, which was a mistake. 5 minutes later I took the line for 1.5 units at +135.

Lets Go Eagles!

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AF +210 to win 2 units.

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Adding +237 to win 1 unit. Big money no whammies!

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BC +140 ML @ V Tech bet 1u to win 1.4u
BC/V Tech u43 bet 1.02u to win 1u
Air Force +6.5 @ New Mexico bet 1u to win 1u

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

I'm on VTech and the under

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

I'm waiting to take AF because it looks like it might cross the 7, or at least get half.

TY Dr. Bob

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

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I like both road dogs tonight.

AIR FORCE +5.5 (+101) @ new mexico 1.0u to win 1.01u
BOSTON COLLEGE +3 (+103) @ vt 0.8u/0.824u
YTD 12-9 +1.625u

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Adding:

AIR FORCE +7 (-106) @ nm 0.53u to win 0.5u

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

AF gets to the 7 thanks to the good doctor. My night as it stands:

AF +7 -110
AF +210 to win 2u
AF +237 to win 1u
AF/NM Under 47 -110
VT -3 -110
BC/VT Over 44 -110

Feeling gross about the over now but whatever...

GL all.

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

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BC +140 ML @ V Tech bet 1u to win 1.4u
BC/V Tech u43 bet 1.02u to win 1u
Air Force +6.5 @ New Mexico bet 1u to win 1u

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I'm curious, are you betting BC here because you really like them to win or is it mostly based on the small road favorite angle?

Re: Thursday (10/25) NCAAF
 

VT -3 1 Unit (From the early thread)
BC +3 (EVEN) 3 Units
Over 41 1 Unit

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I couldn't decide on a winner in this game and so I just went with the under.

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VT -3/-105 tonite, 1u

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Adding a little at AF +7 and +235.

Anyone have the copy/paste of Dr. Bob's write-up on this?
This really feels like much closer to a toss-up game to me.
AF is decent and it's not like UNM are world-beaters.
I feel like UNM should only be 1 or 2 point faves against AF on a neutral field.