NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

Hi all, this is my first post, so the short background is... I've been playing fullring SNGs for quite some time with pretty good results and now I've decided to give "learning" to play HUSNG a chance (have played less than 100 games so far).

I have run into situations like the following a lot lately...

Villain has pushed AI two of the last four times I have raised from SB (pretty much since he got this short). I have folded each time and now he does it a third time.

Full Tilt Poker, $5 + $0.25 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 25/50 Blinds, 2 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: 960
Hero (SB): 2,040

Pre-Flop: (75) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">Hero raises to 125</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to 960 and
is All-In</font>, Hero ?

Question is: what calling range would you use here? Would you call with KTs?

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

What reads do you have on villain from earlier in the game??? While he may be getting frustrated and shoving a wide range, he could also just be cardhot for a few hands. He needs to be shoving a pretty wide range for this to be a good call. K10 plays terribly against a normal 3-betting range. I would fold, tighten up my preflop raising range (not that you shouldnt be raising KT), and wait for a better spot.

My typical calling range against an average opponent would be A9/AT+, maybe KQ, 66/77+. It's really hard to say because it is usually so read-dependent.

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

with given blind sizes i dont see calling with KT is good, even with such reads. you have a nice edge still, i'd wait a better spot (Ax, KQ+, 22+, KJ probably)

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

Sry for not posting my reads. Villain has been minbetting a lot and has called most of my bets on the flop and turn. He lost a lot in an earlier pot where he called me all the way with third pair.

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

Thanks for the input. After stoving it and taking your insights into account I'm pretty sure this is a bad call.

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

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with given blind sizes i dont see calling with KT is good, even with such reads. you have a nice edge still, i'd wait a better spot (Ax, KQ+, 22+, KJ probably)

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calling this shove with A2-A6 is probably not +ev usually

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

Yeah, I definitely don't like to call with little aces or pairs most of the time. He'd have to push a few more times than 4 before I'd even think about calling with something like A5 or 33, because he's either running hot, or you'll certainly get a better chance shortly, and the times that I do call light, I usually end up feeling like a moron for turning a 2-1 chiplead into a 2-1 deficit just because I couldn't wait a few hands.

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

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with given blind sizes i dont see calling with KT is good, even with such reads. you have a nice edge still, i'd wait a better spot (Ax, KQ+, 22+, KJ probably)

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KTs is miles better then 33 or A3o

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

Given your PF raise I think this is a call.

Its not a call you enjoy making...but you cannot play timid at 25/50 if you opponent start to make a habit of pushing you off pots.

The facts are that you will very rarely be a 33/66 dog or worse. The vast majority of the time you'll be in a ~0 EV spot because he's got something like A9. All the other times you love putting your money in.

Call now and lock up a likely 40%-60% chance to win.....don't get pushed off 125 raises very often.

PS. K7s is a turbo fold....but you can't fold this...otherwise whatelse are you playing??

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

I'm not giving up a 2:1 chip lead without a good reason. KTs is a great hand to raise with from sb. BUT it is at the VERY bottom of any reasonable range for opp to shove with. Even if he has shoved 3 in a row I don't call this

I'm pretty sure I don't understand locking up a win by shoving in our chips when we are behind. Against any Ace we are 42/57. Ax, 22+, Kt+ we are 40/60. He isn't shoving a weak king or a queen here against your raise unless you are notoriously weak tight.

Why undo all your hard work with one impatient call? My calling range is similar to hokiegregs unless this guy is WAY out of line.

Mike

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

Hmm, I don't quite understand this hand yet, but I feel like calling almost makes sense. If we have a 40% chance to win vs. villain's range, then isn't it pretty much neutral ev for us?

Maybe I'm doing this wrong but I'll try it anyways (when we're 60/40:

60% of the time we lose 835 chips.
40% of the time we win 1160 chips.

(.4 * 1160) -(.6 * 835) = 464 - 501 = -37.

Now I know that's technically -EV, but isn't it worth giving up 37 chips of EV for a 40% chance of knocking someone out of the tournament? But maybe this is some sort of logical mistake or my math is flawed. I'm just trying to understand how to solve situations like this.

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

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but isn't it worth giving up 37 chips of EV for a 40% chance of knocking someone out of the tournament?

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Lets flip this around a little.

Even if it were +37 EV instead of -37 EV, is it worth 37 chips of EV for a 60% chance of giving your opponent a 2-1 chiplead, when you're already in control of the match?

I make all sorts of loose calls and plays in big pots, but I'm still going to fold KT here. I don't like folding it, but I do. Sure, I might regret it after he does it another half-dozen times, leaving me wishing that I *had* called with the KT, but if he's really pushing with lots of random crap, and isn't just on a heater, then you're going to get a better opportunity.

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

Ah, thanks TNixon, that's an interesting way of looking at it.

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

We are far enough in the match to know our opponent and hopefully have a significant edge. I don't even want to give him the advantage of flipping for it, because if we PLAY I will exploit him and win. Can't tell you how many times I've come back from 1k when villian makes this call to my shoves.

2:1 favorite to 2:1 dog... I hate that swap. Much rather beat him down for another 300, then we can flip all day and he has to suckout twice to survive. I still can't stick my money in when I'm positive I'm dominated or a dog with these stacks.

That is possibly too conservative. If so I'd love to hear why. I don't mind pushing a thin edge hard. But -EV is -EV especially if he is frustrated and shoving recklessly and we can accomplish the same thing later as a favorite.

Mike

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

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Hmm, I don't quite understand this hand yet, but I feel like calling almost makes sense. If we have a 40% chance to win vs. villain's range, then isn't it pretty much neutral ev for us?

Maybe I'm doing this wrong but I'll try it anyways (when we're 60/40:

60% of the time we lose 835 chips.
40% of the time we win 1160 chips.

(.4 * 1160) -(.6 * 835) = 464 - 501 = -37.

Now I know that's technically -EV, but isn't it worth giving up 37 chips of EV for a 40% chance of knocking someone out of the tournament? But maybe this is some sort of logical mistake or my math is flawed. I'm just trying to understand how to solve situations like this.

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Your reasoning is completely flawed .

In heads up play , if your chance of winning is better than the pot odds being offered , then you should almost ALWAYS take the gamble for all your chips even if you're significantly better .

You're getting odds of 1085:835 which means you need to win at least 835/(1085+835) ~ 43.47% to show a profit . If you compare this hand with a reasonable range for villain (try pokerstove) , then it should be clear that folding is the correct choice .

If you want to be pedantic , you would include the rake in your calculations which means you need to win at least 45% of the time for the call to even make sense .

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

Okay thanks. I have almost no experience HU so I'm still trying to figure this stuff out. That makes sense. I guess my mistake was that I thought that our chances of winning vs. villain's range was good enough. But based on what everyone is saying, I guess I put the villain on way too wide a range.

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

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I guess I put the villain on way too wide a range.

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That's the problem right there though. After seeing 3 or 4 pushes, you don't really have any idea what his range really is. I push like this from time to time when I'm on a heater, getting lots of great cards, especially if I'm the shortstack, and ALWAYS if I've just taken a nasty beat. I'll just start pushing all my strong hands, passing up on some amount of potential value on each one, knowing that eventually they're going to break and call with a very inferior hand, where I'll be a big favorite to double up. Very few opponents have the patience to continue folding over and over when you're pushing frequently with stacks deep enough that you're nowhere near SAGE territory.

And actually, to be honest, KT isn't bad at all compared to some of the things I tend to get called with when I'm doing this. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

After 4 or 5 more pushes in a short period of time, you'll have a much better idea of where he's at.

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

I completely agree with mjws and hokiegreg. It is a couple things.
1. You must be aware of his habits and take into account his stack size. (if you don't feel comfortable calling an AI then be mindful of your raise/raise amount)
2. Tighten up your raising range. Unfortunately, you really can't make this call with only k10
3. Do not give up your 2-1 lead and make it 1-2. At around 800-900 chips I start to show aggression, but it is incorrect to call with him showing such strong aggression. Wait for your spot.

GL
bpmst2

Re: NLTRN - short Villain reraises AI
 

When villain's start pushing against my raises like this, KsTs at 25/50 given my stack is a limp. It will force villain to make a drastic overpush into a limp in order to take it down. I fold if he does this. But, sometimes they get scared and will just check. Or raise to 150 - 175. If they raise to 150-175, I probably call and play in position. Massive leak at this stage?

Barry