Botting the NHL
 

Hi all,

You might remember me from my Botting the WNBA thread. Our first season ended up being a success, with 60% of picks winning. As I anxiously await the return of the NBA & WNBA seasons, I've turned my focus to the NHL where I'm hoping to eventually produce similar winning results.

This system is of course a work-in-progress. Just like with the WNBA tips I advise not to take it as gospel - use it as a starting point, look at the lines yourself, read the previews, see what others have to say. This is also my first season seriously betting the NHL, so it's a learning experience for me too. For example, I know sports betters who won't even touch a regulation time only bet, while I will have already had some of them, and will continue to do so at this time. Perhaps as I get more experienced this will change. I know people bet using different methods - for the purpose of keeping track of actual units, I'll say we're always risking 1 unit for + bets, and To Win for -1 bets. I'll be using Pinny lines.

I've also been posting my picks on another forum(just one with friends) for the last week, so I'm going to start off with that record here just to make it easier on myself for tracking publiclly. I can send the forum to people to verify the picks if they want - just PM me. For the record, the picks I've had so far are:

IRT = In Regulation Time.
OTI = Overtime included.

Oct 16:
Flyers -0.5 IRT, -116. Win.
Flyers -1.5 OTI, +160. Win.
Over 5.5 in Col/Cal @ -116, OTI. Win.

Oct 17:
Columbus OTI, -109. Loss.

Oct 18:
Washington -0.5 IRT +103, Loss.

Oct 19:
Carolina ML OTI +125. Loss.
Sabres -1.5 OTI +140. Loss.

Oct 20:
Boston ML OTI, -102. Win.
Dallas ML OTI, -127. Win.
Tampa -1.5 OTI, +169. Win.

October Record: 6-4 (+3.20u)

Today take the Minnesota Wild -0.5 IRT, +119.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

GL... Do you mind explaining a little of the methodology of the system?

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Yes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Ha,ha. I really don't want to go into detail - particularly at this stage when it's still a WIP. Later on in the season, if I get to the point where I'm comfortable posting the picks without the "work in progress" disclaimer, I'll be sure to go into more detail about it.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

And a win, yay.

October Record: 7-4(+4.39 units)

No Monday bets.

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Tuesday:

St Louis to beat Anaheim OTI ML: -119
Edmonton to beat Colorado: OTI ML +125

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Went 1-1 yesterday, for a loss of 0.19 units.

October YTD: 8-5 (+4.20 units)

Today take:

Washington to beat Tampa OTI: -110
Minnesota to beat Calgary OTI: +113
Carolina to beat Buffalo OTI: -131. Risk to win 2 units.
Florida/Philly over 5.5 -125

Re: Botting the NHL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Went 1-1 yesterday, for a loss of 0.19 units.

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/Nit
Shouldn't that be break even?
+1u on stl
-1u on edm (edm? really?)

/Nit

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Nah - calculating it for risk/to win. So it would be risking 1.19 units to win a unit. Just a lot easier to track for me when posting.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Ha,ha. I really don't want to go into detail - particularly at this stage when it's still a WIP. Later on in the season, if I get to the point where I'm comfortable posting the picks without the "work in progress" disclaimer, I'll be sure to go into more detail about it.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not sure I understand the point of reading these picks if I don't get to know anything about the methodology.
If you shared parts of it you might get some feedback as to what is good or bad about it and perhaps be able to adjust any flaws in it, etc.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

[ QUOTE ]

Flyers -1.5 OTI, +160. Win.

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why would an overtime line be -1.5? ot is sudden death so to win this bet you gotta win by 2 in regulation.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure I understand the point of reading these picks if I don't get to know anything about the methodology.
If you shared parts of it you might get some feedback as to what is good or bad about it and perhaps be able to adjust any flaws in it, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry - I should've been more detailed in my first post. It was mostly a case of it being late and just wanting to get the thread started, as well as expecting people to know that it'd be a similar system based on my WNBA system. It factors in a lot of different stats, and attempts a backwards calculation to determine the exact formula to use when calculating the % a team has to win said game. As it's just in the beginning stages I don't want to be like "hey, here's the exact methology I use - what should I change?", I'd rather get some results going with it, see how we're doing, where we're losing, where we're missing value, THEN start going into more detail about that. I also want to publicly track this so that when that time comes, I'm not posting here saying "Hey I have written a program that is winning 75% of games here are the tips for tonight" because as you know, that never sits well on forums [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So basically I don't mind if people don't want to discuss the picks, take the picks or even read the thread at this stage [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Once we're further along I'll go into more detail, ask opinions of others, and hopefully discuss it with some of the smarter guys on here who know the NHL when it comes to sports betting or even run software of their own.

[ QUOTE ]
why would an overtime line be -1.5? ot is sudden death so to win this bet you gotta win by 2 in regulation.

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Using Pinny - and that's just the way they have it there(Only -0.5 for regulation time). I could just write -1.5 and not include the "OTI" part as it doesn't matter, but I'm just used to writing it. I'll try and omit that in the future.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

ty for sharing

I'm following with a small amount

Re: Botting the NHL
 

I guess I'll be looking at these picks and will hope we get more on the methodolgy soon.
I'm interested in learning to bet the NHL some also.
Makes watching the games on versus or on the internet more interesting.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tuesday:

St Louis to beat Anaheim OTI ML: -119
Edmonton to beat Colorado: OTI ML +125

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Not sure the outcomes of these games, but if you went 1-1:

STL loses (1.19u risked), ed wins(1u risked). 1.25-1.19 = .06win.
Ed loses(1u risked), STL wins(1.19u risked). 1-1=0

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Oops you're completely right - sorry about that. Hopefully I haven't made that miscalculation elsewhere in the totals. I'm exhausted tonight and about to go to bed - I'll have a look over it tomorrow. Thanks for checking and pointing it out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Botting the NHL
 

CSC totally has my back Yo!

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Thanks to both NHLNut and CardSharpCook for pointing out my calculation error. Before yesterdays games we were at 8-4, +4.39 units.

Yesterday we went 3-1. Thanks for blowing that 1st period 3-0 lead Minnesota!

October Record: 11-5 (+7.39)

Today we have:

Los Angeles/Dallas over 5.5
Tampa to beat Philly, OTI, -121. 2 unit play.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

I dont know if you already utilized the information here but in case you dont know the page you will find some nice articles regarding botting hockey.

http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Ooooh thank you - that's a great link. Someone had sent me all of Alans stuff during the WNBA season and that's what inspired me to get into botting the NHL - but I didn't realize he actually had a site. Some valuable links on there too. Much appreciated.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

I love that Tampa bet against Philly. The flyers ran so hot early even though they are getting outshot horrrribly every game.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Went 1-1 yesterday, forgot to post O/U line which was -107, so we had a profit of 1.93.

October Record: 12-6(+9.32 units)

Just the one bet today: Florida -0.5 IRT, +138. Bear in mind I'm still inexperienced with betting the NHL - this is one I might look back on and say "That was silly. We should have been more cautious and went for the money line with OTI". I'm generally trying to err with the side of caution until I get my feet wet here, but gotta live and learn. Anyone got thoughts on that game?

Re: Botting the NHL
 

I like it because Florida is averaging 31 shots/game and Buffalo's save % is the worst in the league (plus they're at home). +138 seems like a decent line. I don't know what the regular money line is so I can't say which is better, but Florida should definitely be favored.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Regular money line was -123 I believe. And thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Always good to hear others thoughts, and I owe you one for backing up the Tampa pick as I put a bit more on it personally when you did - I'm trying to be very cautious for now with it just beginning. It'll also help me open up more too about the picks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Am I mistaken or is Montreal really up 6-1 at the end of the first period? lol w t f

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Haha. They were +162 approx too. Glad the odds were too small on Hurricanes at -172.

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Buffalo just backdoored the [censored] outta that game.

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Loss yesterday, 12-7(+9.32) for the year.

Montreal to beat Pittsburgh +166 OTI
Tampa to beat Buffalo -0.5 +109 IRT
Chicago to beat Atlanta -0.5 IRT -102

Re: Botting the NHL
 

[ QUOTE ]
ty for sharing

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Seconded.

Does your system factor in which goalies are starting (or projected to start)?

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I hadn't even looked at the NHL tonight then I saw this thread and that the Canadians were +166 (160 when I got it) and pounded it. That line is way off.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hadn't even looked at the NHL tonight then I saw this thread and that the Canadians were +166 (160 when I got it) and pounded it. That line is way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Booya

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Hi.I am new to Two Plus Two and this is my first post. I love to bet on hockey. What are your thoughts on the Party Poker Sportsbook for betting the NHL?

Re: Botting the NHL
 

In rush to post today as games start soon - will tally up later:

Today:
Detroit/Vancouver over 5 -131
Minnesota/Colorado over 5.5 +106
Detroit -127 to beat Vancouver
Over 15.5 goals today - -124

All OTI.

Hockey Hands - in regard to Party Bets, are you in US or non-US? It's really a case of the odds. Do line shopping via oddschecker - http://www.oddschecker.com/ice-hockey

Re: Botting the NHL
 

I love hockey, I love gambling and I love statistical analysis.... this sounds great - I will be following along. Anything you can begin to start sharing about your methods?

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I am non-US. Thanks for the link.

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On Saturday we went 1-2, for an 0.36 loss, to bring the record to 13-9, +8.96 units. Horrible day Sunday with the totals, and we went 1-3, to bring us to 14-12 for October, +6.41 units. I had a hard time in the WNBA with the totals - hopefully it won't be the same with the NHL. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

ata - things are changing fairly regularly in regard to values and how much particular statistics matter, so not prepared to go into it just yet. I use a formula though that takes the results of previous games, and finds trends in the stats as well as hopefully calculating the estimated % each stat has that affects a teams winning %. Bah - got my daughter crying in the background here so hard to think [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Hopefully that made sense. I'll go into more detail eventually, once I notice some set trends/factors.

Tonight take New York Rangers -0.5 IRT @ +103. I have Rangers covering this about 63% of the time, unfortunately with their unreliable offense, can't recommend more units.

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Wasn't your over bet on Det/Van a push?

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You are correct [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Thank you, and it makes it a 1-1-1 night for a profit instead! That's a lot better than what we had. Sigh - don't know how I keep making basic mistakes like that. Thanks ata [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Botting the NHL
 

Umm ...

Detroit/Vancouver over 5 -131 (PUSH)
Minnesota/Colorado over 5.5 +106 (LOSS)
Detroit -127 to beat Vancouver (WIN)
Over 15.5 goals today - -124 (LOSS)

1-2-1 (-1.24)

Re: Botting the NHL
 

I took that NYR bet which worked out well... then added in the Leafs at -0.5 IRT at -107 since they're coming home on a hot streak with Toskala on a tear and Washington had a bunch of injuries.... obv that was an easy recipe for disaster.

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Geez - what the hell is wrong with me? Thanks stevo - I'll be sure to double & triple check it all from now on. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]