Week 9 Early NCAA Lines
 

Any guesses/projections for Kansas at aTm?

I'm coming up with KU -3, but I'm no expert.

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KU -5.5 maybe?

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Nah, Texas A&M's a lot worse than Colorado. They've been almost as lucky as Kansas on turnovers, and they've still gotten rocked. I'd guess Kansas -9.5 on that opener.

For the other big games this week, I'd go:

BC at VT -3
USC at Oregon -4
Cal at Arizona State -3.5
Florida -10 vs. Georgia
Ohio State -6 at Penn State

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Auburn -11 vs. Ole Miss

It could be more.

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Virginia Tech will cover and win. I'm hoping BC is favored [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Guesses:

Auburn -12.5
KU -6.5
Florida -11
Ohio State -6.5

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Forgot the West Virginia/Rutgers game. That's pretty key too. I'd go with West Virginia -1 as the USF/Rutgers game will still be on everyone's mind, but the Mountaineers almost have to be favored.

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Rutgers -1
Penn State +3.5
VT -3.5

Miami -9.5?
Oregon -3.5 v USC?

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Actually, looking at it again, I bet Oregon's favored by 6 against USC. According to the Sagarin predictor, the line should actually be 18.

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Mississippi State v. Kentucky -15, O/U 57

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Boston College v. Virginia Tech PK
West Virginia -5.5 v. Rutgers

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Colorado @ Texas Tech -11
Pittsburgh @ Louisville -7
North Carolina @ Wake Forest -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -6
USC @ Oregon -6.5

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South Florida -6.5 @ UConn
Florida -11.5 v. Georgia
South Carolina @ Tennessee -2.5
Ole Miss @ Auburn -13.5
Cal @ Arizona State -2.5
Ohio State -5.5 @ Penn State

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Lines are up!

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Stanford +12.5
Northwestern +12.5
Virginia Tech -2.5
Ole Miss +16.5
Illinois -13.5
North Carolina +6.5
Duke +18.5
Nevada -16.5

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Which site?

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Argh, sbrlines shows lines for Diamond but they don't show up on the actual site. I want Oregon -2, that's a great line and I don't see it staying there long.

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West Virginia -7? Oregon -2.5? Some of these lines are way off.

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Two I like thus far.

Mississippi +17.5
Oregon -2.5

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POTW: Oregon -2.5 v USC bet 5.5u to win 5u


also put down some on
Georgia +10.5 N Florida bet 2.2u to win 2u

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West Virginia -7? Oregon -2.5? Some of these lines are way off.

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I was thinking -6 on WVU so I'm not too surprised by that. I will be on the Mountaineers if it drops. Agree on Oregon. The Auburn line is the one that has me stumped. Seems like a typical letdown situation for Auburn. Is someone out for Ole Miss?

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Oregon -2
Purdue -12.5
Kentucky -13
Ole Miss +17.5
Kansas -3
Boston College +3
Pittsburgh +10.5
Florida -10

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West Virginia -7? Oregon -2.5? Some of these lines are way off.

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I was thinking -6 on WVU so I'm not too surprised by that. I will be on the Mountaineers if it drops. Agree on Oregon. The Auburn line is the one that has me stumped. Seems like a typical letdown situation for Auburn. Is someone out for Ole Miss?

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I don't think WVU line is that far off. I would lean Rutgers, but wouldn't be betting them until 7.5.

WVU was -7ish at SF. SF -2.5 at Rutgers. So even at 6.5 it's been adjusted down slightly, even when Rutgers arguably hasn't done much to merit it (they needed a fake punt and fake FG to edge SF, could've gone either way).

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leaning
Stanford
Washington St
Cal
Penn St
Ole Miss
Kansas
Duke

but will wait til late in the week

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Yeah, but the only reason USF was favored against Rutgers is that they'd already beat WVU. You can't really compare the lines that way. I think a better comparison would be that USF's 2.15 points better than WVU in the Sagarin ratings and has a TO margin that's .43 turnovers better per game which would be worth just under 2 points. Therefore, the WVU line should be a half point lower than the USF line.

Maybe you could adjust 2 points in WVU's favor for reversion to preseason projections, but I can't possibly see how WVU should be favored by more than 4. 7 seems way too high. I agree that the Oregon line's probably better though.

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Stanford +12.5
Northwestern +12.5
Virginia Tech -2.5
Ole Miss +16.5
Illinois -13.5
North Carolina +6.5
Duke +18.5
Nevada -16.5

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Very surprised to see you like Northwestern here on the road. That line strikes me as way off. Purdue has blown out all their weak opponents at home, both this year and in the past. They just beat Iowa 31-6 and they're better than Northwestern. Purdue's only two struggles were against OSU and on the road at Michigan. Northwestern barely beat a truly awful Minnesota team and also lost to Duke at home.

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Yeah, but the only reason USF was favored against Rutgers is that they'd already beat WVU. You can't really compare the lines that way. I think a better comparison would be that USF's 2.15 points better than WVU in the Sagarin ratings and has a TO margin that's .43 turnovers better per game which would be worth just under 2 points. Therefore, the WVU line should be a half point lower than the USF line.

Maybe you could adjust 2 points in WVU's favor for reversion to preseason projections, but I can't possibly see how WVU should be favored by more than 4. 7 seems way too high. I agree that the Oregon line's probably better though.

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I don't think SF is better than WVU on a neutral if they played tomorrow. You forget Pat White didn't play in the 2nd half against SF, the game was at SF, and SF had a defensive touchdown in addition to several other costly turnovers for WVU, one when they were about to go in for a TD. WVU outgained them handily IIRC.

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Two I like thus far.

Mississippi +17.5
Oregon -2.5

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Adding:
Kansas -3
Pitt +10.5 (Navy couldn't stop them. How can UL?)
Nebraska +21.5 (Methinks the Huskers will enjoy getting away from home for a week.)
UCLA -6.5 (Trap game after Cal, but Wazzou can't stop the run.)

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They outgained them handily in total yards due to more possessions, but they were almost dead even in YPP. I do think WVU's a little better than USF on a neutral field and that's why I mentioned reversion to preseason projections, but I don't think it's more than 1 or 2 points.

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Leaning, but waiting:

Wyoming
VT
USF
Vandy
Baylor
Cal

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BTW, I like Kansas and Purdue too. I think name value's the only thing keeping the KU line down as they've already beaten two opponents better than A&M on the road by more than 3 and have played much better than A&M against weak opponents as well.

Purdue, in addition to being 14 points better based on raw victory margin has hugely favorable matchups as NW has one of the worst pass defenses in the country whereas Purdue has one of the best and both teams will be throwing a lot. The extra plays from the passing game will also keep the total up, meaning even more points.

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Actually, looking at it again, I bet Oregon's favored by 6 against USC. According to the Sagarin predictor, the line should actually be 18.

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Haven't we learned anything about the public and USC?
After all, they beat ND by a whole bunch!

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Still though, I bet this line sharpens up a bunch by gametime. Everyone in the media seemed to think Cal was better than Oregon too, but that line got up to 6 by kickoff. (Oregon was the right side there too, turnovers were the only thing that kept them from winning and covering.) If this line's lower than 4.5 on Friday, I'll be amazed.

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Stanford +12.5
Northwestern +12.5
Virginia Tech -2.5
Ole Miss +16.5
Illinois -13.5
North Carolina +6.5
Duke +18.5
Nevada -16.5

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Very surprised to see you like Northwestern here on the road. That line strikes me as way off. Purdue has blown out all their weak opponents at home, both this year and in the past. They just beat Iowa 31-6 and they're better than Northwestern. Purdue's only two struggles were against OSU and on the road at Michigan. Northwestern barely beat a truly awful Minnesota team and also lost to Duke at home.

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I agree with Bills' comments

Purdue is really good at dominating teams that don't have enough athletes to line-up against 4-5 wideouts. They love win OLBs from mediocre teams try to match up with someone in the slot. That's why Purdue's offense has struggled scoring v Michigan and Ohio State this year and Penn St and Wisconsin last year (when the Badgers had that excellent secondary). In those games, the boilers put up 21 (garbage time v Michigan), 7, 0, and 3 respectively. The Boilers have avg nearly 34.3 ppg in the rest of the last 2 seasons. Note that I use last year as well because Purdue returned nearly all that offense. The offense is a little better with more running for the Boilers this year.

Also, NW has really struggled to stop pass first teams the last few years and this year as well.

Last year, Purdue rolled in Evanston 31-10 in an even turnover game. Of course, NW couldn't pass last year, but that game was just domination.

I'm leaning Purdue...will probably play later in the week after my models have come together and give me an estimate.

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so is everyone on Oregon?

Someone give me a good reason for not betting multiple units on them ... other than the fact that everyone here is taking the same line [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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why not Oregon?

injuries to the depth of Oregon's skill players

mistakes they might make in a close game---like Cal

USC's defense is one of the few that can match Oregon's offense athleticism

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Wow, Kansas dropped to -2.5. Very surprising. Time to add!

Surely people aren't giving A&M much credit for that Nebraska win given the Huskers' play of late? (And yes I am sick for not betting on A&M last week.)

Kansas and A&M are teams headed in opposite directions.

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Wow, Kansas dropped to -2.5. Very surprising. Time to add!

Surely people aren't giving A&M much credit for that Nebraska win given the Huskers' play of late? (And yes I am sick for not betting on A&M last week.)

Kansas and A&M are teams headed in opposite directions.

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I think the negative for Kansas is how good is their rush defense really?
They've played a few teams now and I'm impressed. However, how will they stand up against a team that is just going to punch them in the mouth over and over?


I like the Kansas side, but I do see the other viewpoint

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so is everyone on Oregon?

Someone give me a good reason for not betting multiple units on them ... other than the fact that everyone here is taking the same line [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Line's only off by 1 from where I predicted it would be, not accounting for Ducks injuries?

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Only 1 double digit home dog this week? Bah.