It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Online 10/20. Game is 8-handed.

UTG limps. He's loose and passive PF, but plays pretty normal postflop. Two folds to an unknown MP who limps. Folded to me with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I raise. TAG button folds, loose/bad SB folds, typical BB calls, limpers call.

Flop comes: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets, UTG raises, MP calls.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Egad. I think you're getting just enough to peel the flop. But doesn't that make the pot big enough to call on the turn with just the gutshot? So you're essentially making a two BB decision here. Spots like this make me want to put my head through a wall.

Fold preflop?

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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Fold preflop?

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lol? no way i fold pf. if this fold is something from some book that says "you need 5 limpers to play suited connectors" throw that book away, its worthless.

raise is iffy though. i think a limp is better.


Flop: I call but its very close. if someone has a big hand (seems likely if 3 people are staying on a board this dry) then you have great implied odds. the bad part is you arent closing the action, and the BB has led into the field which is sometimes indicative of a big hand.

i think i call and hope.

ps who is the chick in your avatar?

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

My first instinct was to 3bet with the intention of taking a free card, assuming we are not folding (I think we get enough in implied odds to continue with ~5 outs to a well disguised winner). But it's been so long since I played 10/20 that I'm really not sure if that's a), gonna work often, or b), if coldcalling & looking like you're setting up a turn raise is just as likely to get you a free card chance. I also don't like the possibility of knocking out one or two opponents with that flop 3bet when we're almost certainly going to win the hand if we hit our outs.

So, upon a little more reflection, call two.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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ps who is the chick in your avatar?

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img169.imageshack.us/img169/3941/jojoavvb1.gif

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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Fold preflop?

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No. 45s sure, 98s has pair value and against a loose limper and someone who didn't try to iso the loose limper flopping just an 8 or a 9 will frequently be plenty. Of course if the blinds come along we'll be in a 4+handed pot at which point we're profitable on draw value alone. I do like a limp better than a raise though.

I wanted to fold the flop at first for fear of a 3bet wrecking our odds but then I realized we have BDFD + position. After some more reflection I think it's a thin call.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

3bet was my first reaction and i think i'm sticking to it.

for me, this is influenced by more than just the free card possibility. since this is a nice sized pot and with a draw to the nuts/poss. flush it's in our best interest to continue if we don't hit/pickup more of a draw on the turn.

this becomes more difficult to do if our opponents start to get aggressive on fourth street(it also hurts implied odds). if they're putting in action on this board, they have made hands. a majority of those made hands are one pair type hands(of course the less mathematically likely sets/two pair combos must be accounted for as well).

this means a flop 3bet could very well induce them into a certain amount of submission we wouldn't otherwise see if we coldcall the flop.

keep in mind, it wouldn't need to succeed only in forcing all of your opponents to simply check out of fear. if it could keep an opponent from betting to get raised(say BB) or keep an opponent(say UTG or MP) from raising someone elses bet, we wouuld come out reasonably ahead since on the turn we will often have the odds to draw for one big bet more profitably(and more often) than two.

based on your sort of vague/subjective descriptions i'm making assumptions according to my interpretation. certainly clarification of a specific tendency that i overlooked could change my opinion one way or the other.

btw, do ya think i'm gonna get $20 from your challenge in medium stakes? that last graph you posted showed you had a ways to go in a shrinking time frame.... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

I already told you that I call, but figured I may as well bump this to say that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Whassup GOT?

By the way, we need more posts like this, that make me have to think.

Ok, what a fine mess we've got ourselves into here.

If you were closing the action, it would be an easy call. I guess it boils down to what we think the BB is going to do when it gets back to him. I suspect that a huge percentage of the time, in live games, he is going to just call when it gets back to him, so I think we can call here, and if we don't catch a ten, maybe we could be lucky enough to get either the 5 or 6 of diamonds.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Hmmm, I need to think more about a threebet here.

If I am willing to pay two small bets for one card, I should be more than happy to pay three small bets for two cards. Combined with my preflop raise, I think that my chance of getting a freecard here, is probably pretty big if I make the threebet.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Three-betting here is one of those things that I never think to do as the hand is happening, but seem very attractive later on. Not only does it possibly buy us a free card, but if we get HU with UTG, there's a chance our 9s and 8s are outs, no?

-McGee

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

I think the raise preflop is pretty bad.
You want to see flops as cheap as possible.
Also, you want to keep that loose sb in, so just limp.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
for me, this is influenced by more than just the free card possibility. since this is a nice sized pot and with a draw to the nuts/poss. flush it's in our best interest to continue if we don't hit/pickup more of a draw on the turn.

this becomes more difficult to do if our opponents start to get aggressive on fourth street(it also hurts implied odds). if they're putting in action on this board, they have made hands. a majority of those made hands are one pair type hands(of course the less mathematically likely sets/two pair combos must be accounted for as well).

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So, you're saying that, you put in an extra bet as a 10:1 underdog on the flop, end up making a marginal call on the turn anyway and you think this is profitable for you?

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

Forgot about this hand.

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Fold Preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]No. 45s sure

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I call with 54s here PF without thinking too much about it. A wise man once said regarding 75s in this same spot, "If you aren't going to play that hand in that spot, why are you even at a poker table?"

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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I think the raise preflop is pretty bad.
You want to see flops as cheap as possible.
Also, you want to keep that loose sb in, so just limp.

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I raise T9s here routinely. Virtually 100% of the time. I even raise it one position earlier in a lot of cases (maybe ~30%), and this would have been one of them. 98s here is kinda close, but with a TAG button I think it's pretty easy. If it helps to see how easy, if someone were to limp PF and show me this hand, the first thing I'd probably say is "I raise PF."

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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If I am willing to pay two small bets for one card, I should be more than happy to pay three small bets for two cards. Combined with my preflop raise, I think that my chance of getting a freecard here, is probably pretty big if I make the threebet.

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There's a bit more to it than that. I haven't done a shred of math on this hand yet and honestly don't have much of a clue what the right play is. If I had to guess I'd go with calling, but it seems like every time I try going over this hand in my head I'm still going back and forth.

The biggest problem I see with 3betting here is how it kills my effective odds for seeing the turn and wondering if the better effective for seeing the river make up for it. It doesn't seem like they would, but again I haven't done any real math. And to a lesser extent, it also kills my implied odds on the turn, not just because less bets will go in when I hit, but because my unit is now 1.5 BB instead of 1.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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So, you're saying that, you put in an extra bet as a 10:1 underdog on the flop, end up making a marginal call on the turn anyway and you think this is profitable for you?

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To all:

Estimate hero's outs on the flop. Don't do math, just make up a number on the spot.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

5.5

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

6.25

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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If you aren't going to play that hand in that spot, why are you even at a poker table?"

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I think I remember Clarkmeister saying that in a thread, is the the wise man you are referring too?

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

5.5-6.25 outs on the flop? We're facing 2 cold against "typical" players in a raised pot with an over on board and we're giving that much credit to pair outs? I was thinking 5 is on the generous side.

GoT: just curious, what's your VPIP/PFR in fullring games? I'm a 20/13 10 handed and I tend to limp this.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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for me, this is influenced by more than just the free card possibility. since this is a nice sized pot and with a draw to the nuts/poss. flush it's in our best interest to continue if we don't hit/pickup more of a draw on the turn.

this becomes more difficult to do if our opponents start to get aggressive on fourth street(it also hurts implied odds). if they're putting in action on this board, they have made hands. a majority of those made hands are one pair type hands(of course the less mathematically likely sets/two pair combos must be accounted for as well).

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you're saying that, you put in an extra bet as a 10:1 underdog on the flop, end up making a marginal call on the turn anyway and you think this is profitable for you?

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there are 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] left in the deck. with 47 unseen cards, that means a pretty significant amount of the time(~21%)another one comes on the turn. if it goes bet/raise we're stuck with paying at least two big bets to draw to our flush.

another % of the time we get to the river for putting in that extra sb. can't argue with that being a huge coup.

downsides include the fact it opens up the chance of being capped on the flop, bloats the pot so that we are often forced to draw at a hand as weak as our gutter on the turn, and(as someone pointed out) it really screws up our effective odds.

even so, us being the PFR and the fact that i think their holdings are weighted towards one pair hands should increase the frequency that our flop 3bet succeeds in what we want it to do.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So, you're saying that, you put in an extra bet as a 10:1 underdog on the flop, end up making a marginal call on the turn anyway and you think this is profitable for you?

[/ QUOTE ]

To all:

Estimate hero's outs on the flop. Don't do math, just make up a number on the spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

~5.75

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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GoT: just curious, what's your VPIP/PFR in fullring games? I'm a 20/13 10 handed and I tend to limp this.

[/ QUOTE ]
~17.2/12.8

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you aren't going to play that hand in that spot, why are you even at a poker table?"

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I remember Clarkmeister saying that in a thread, is the the wise man you are referring too?

[/ QUOTE ]
It is indeed. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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To all:

Estimate hero's outs on the flop. Don't do math, just make up a number on the spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

5

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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GoT: just curious, what's your VPIP/PFR in fullring games? I'm a 20/13 10 handed and I tend to limp this.

[/ QUOTE ]
~17.2/12.8

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o_O Now I'm really curious as to what I play and you don't (as the 45s isn't even an autoplay for me here and apparently I'm looser overall than you). At first I thought it might be tighter games but then I remembered last time I played online regularly was like 5/10 stars pre-UIGEA. Although this is probably a topic for its own thread.

Re: It\'s Been A Whlie : 98s in CO
 

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[ QUOTE ]
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GoT: just curious, what's your VPIP/PFR in fullring games? I'm a 20/13 10 handed and I tend to limp this.

[/ QUOTE ]
~17.2/12.8

[/ QUOTE ]

o_O Now I'm really curious as to what I play and you don't (as the 45s isn't even an autoplay for me here and apparently I'm looser overall than you). At first I thought it might be tighter games but then I remembered last time I played online regularly was like 5/10 stars pre-UIGEA. Although this is probably a topic for its own thread.

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Start it. That would be an interesting thread.