Why do we steal with Axs?
 

I'm a TAG live player. I'll start playing online more soon, but for now, I don't have pokertracker analyzing my every move, so this is a pretty basic preflop question?

In every poker book, I've ever read, I've been encouraged to raise preflop in MP or LP with a weak suited ace preflop if I'm the first to open the pot. I've done this blindly for years, but I'm starting to wonder why I'm doing it.

Heads up, a suited ace is about 3% better than an unsuited ace againist a random hand. If it's +EV to make this raise with Axs, then shouldn't it be almost as good a play with Axo?

Is the 5.77% of the time when we actually make the flush (thank you Mike Caro) really that big a difference? If not, then why aren't we making the same steal with Axo?

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

from the books that i have read it makes a pretty big difference because of the flush draw possibilities. That way you can semi-bluff more and get monies when it hits.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

i do steal with Axo from LP. i steal with all sorts of hands from CO and BTN, im delighted if i get to open with Ax rather than the usual trash!

if im first in the pot i always raise, whether it be Axs, Axo, paint, SCs, PP....

but for postflop, Axs suited plays better if we have position, gives us more options than Axo if we hit the right kinda flop

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

Okay, if it's the flush draw possibility, you'll flop two or more of your suit 11.79% of time. That still seems small to me.

By comparision, you are as likely to flop a set with a pocket pair as you are to flop a flush draw with two suited cards.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

we raise PP's so that if we flop a set we can get all the money in more easily.... is it ~13% for flopping a set with a PP? thats not too far off the chance of flopping a FD with Axs.... could one suggest that the idea is the similar?

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

I just tried to clean NotFreeMonies bug off the screen.... levelled.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
we raise PP's so that if we flop a set we can get all the money in more easily.... is it ~13% for flopping a set with a PP? thats not too far off the chance of flopping a FD with Axs.... could one suggest that the idea is the similar?

[/ QUOTE ]

given the percentages - and i'm no math major - flopping a set is more likely to stack a player than flopping the fd. with the set you have the made hand to go to war with. a fd??? you still have to hit. i'd rather shove with the set than a draw, though i've done both.

EN

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

preflop equity in once-raised pots is pretty meaningless in NL in this context

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just tried to clean NotFreeMonies bug off the screen.... levelled.

[/ QUOTE ]

me too....

[ QUOTE ]
flopping a set is more likely to stack a player than flopping the fd. with the set you have the made hand to go to war with. a fd??? you still have to hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

very true, but with NFD you still want to play a big pot... or i do anyway...

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
very true, but with NFD you still want to play a big pot... or i do anyway...

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed... i guess my point was with the percentages of hitting the set, your work is done. with the same percentages of flopping a DRAW as you said... you still have work to do... and cards to catch.

but yeah, if you get the nfd go for it.

EN

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

agreed

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just tried to clean NotFreeMonies bug off the screen.... levelled.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've tried to flick that damn thing off my screen twice in the past week, so take everything I say with a grain of salt.

[ QUOTE ]
but with NFD you still want to play a big pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm starting to have my doubts about the value of the nut flush draw in a short handed pot, too. It's gotten to the point that even in a low stakes NL live game, EVERYONE sees the third suited card land, so as soon as you make your hand, your action is gone.

The only nut flush draw that seems valuable to me is one with two overs b/c of the folding equity you get when you make a strong move, but that's not going to happen with a weak ace.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

what about pair and NFD tho?

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
what about pair and NFD tho?

[/ QUOTE ]

with a straight draw to boot?!

Axs first in in late MP and LP constitutes a mandatory raise for me unless there are reasons not to. such as an aggro-maniac with a bad habit of rerasing anything from a LP raise when sitting OTB or in the blinds. then you must wait for a solid hand or grab a seat to his left as quickly as possible to exploit him.

EN

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
what about pair and NFD tho?

[/ QUOTE ]

True, that's as good as the two overs, but it's much less likely to happen.

Regardless, I think we are getting off subject though by focusing on the best case scenerios.

90% of the time, we aren't getting a flush draw and even when that the miracle happens and we do catch it, it's guarenteed us nothing but a 35% of making a nut by the river that is so obvious that Stevie Wonder would notice it.

It's no where near as good as a set.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]


Axs first in in late MP and LP constitutes a mandatory raise for me unless there are reasons not to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I have been taught the same thing. My question isn't "What are we doing?" My question is "Why are we doing it"?

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

With Axs, when you flop a pair and a draw or even just the nut draw, you can play for stacks. You aren't playing Axs for high card values, you are playing it to draw to the nuts. So, you put a little in, steal a little and release when the going gets rough. You hardly ever play for high card values and then only in small pots. With Axo, you rarely make those sorts of draws.

In my mind, A(2-5)s play better than A(6-9)s as you can also flop a wheel draw which is another big pot hand.

The only big pot hand you can make with Axo is 2 pair. Trip A's is a total trap if you can't get away from it.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Axs first in in late MP and LP constitutes a mandatory raise for me unless there are reasons not to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I have been taught the same thing. My question isn't "What are we doing?" My question is "Why are we doing it"?



[/ QUOTE ]

well here's why i do it...

1) mix up play

2) it does take own the blinds now and then

3) it hits small trips and the pfr disguises the hand well

4) it is super easy to get away from

5) oh yeah... the flush draw too

now that being said if i happen to hit an Ace i'm not really happy, would you be? i have a weak-ass kicker and most likely am dominated big time. don't go broke with a weak Ace.

i'm sure there are other reasons to pop an Axs first in, but those are some of mine.

EN

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

Most of the time when you flop a big draw, especially in position, you aren't really hoping to have to make your draw. You're hoping to use your fold equity most of the time.

Nut draws are so powerful because you can put tremendous pressure on your opponents with a really good safety net, not because you can passively draw.

You can't do that with a small pair. You have to make a hand to apply pressure and then you may not get paid off.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

Cuz it's fun? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] lol

We raise in MP and LP (among other reasons) to either steal the blinds or buy the button. If we're called, a cbet can take the pot down a good percent of the time. A-x is a nice hand to do this with because you still have something decent to play with if you're called. A-x suited is even better because aside from all the other goodness, we might flop a draw to the nuts flush or a pair/NFD combo or something juicy like that. If we do, the pot's already larger since we raised preflop, AND our preflop aggression may buy us some free looks. I also think it increases our fold equity if we decide to push a combo or FD draw. If anyone comes up with other stuff, lemme know!


OOOOOoooo one more thing. I've seen a lot of draw-pricing at 25NL recently. (players who are OOP making tiny bets to price their draws in). It's funny as hell when you let them (since you're on the same draw, only better) and then they shove when they hit, you call and they cry. WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
With Axs, when you flop a pair and a draw or even just the nut draw, you can play for stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you're opponent is literally blind, do you really want to play for stacks with just a flush draw?

I agree that you can threaten to play for stacks with a flush draw, because of folding equity, but imo, if he calls your big raise when all you have is a flush draw, that's really, really bad news. Yes, you have outs, but you are a dog.

I agree that we can create the impression that we want to play for stacks, but in reality, we don't really want to.

This is the major difference between the flush draw and the set. With the set, their call is +EV for us. With a simple flush draw, we are -EV.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

There's a great episode of live at the bike with Barry Greenstein doing the commentary. There were two or three times where Axs made a pair and a draw and his reaction was always the same, "with that hand I'm just looking to get it all in."

It's such a big hand. You need to be raising like crazy with it.

I think it's worth saying again, you are not looking to flop the nut flush draw in the hopes of making it and betting for value. You are looking to exercise leverage on top pair hands and induce them to fold. You're looking to make the pot play big so that top pair hands can't continue. You get the added benefit of making second best flushes pay you off.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I agree that we can create the impression that we want to play for stacks, but in reality, we don't really want to.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's true. Most hands on the flop are one pair hands. We want those one pair hands to fold for the most part. If we happen to get both stacks in and are behind, we still have good equity.

[ QUOTE ]

This is the major difference between the flush draw and the set. With the set, their call is +EV for us. With a simple flush draw, we are -EV.


[/ QUOTE ]
But you have to make a set before it has value. I think that's a key difference. That just isn't the case with any kind of big draw.

Now, if you are in a loose game where no one can lay down a hand, playing it fast loses some value. But, pots often play multiway, so you're draws are still good earners when they come in.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
There's a great episode of live at the bike with Barry Greenstein doing the commentary. There were two or three times where Axs made a pair and a draw and his reaction was always the same, "with that hand I'm just looking to get it all in."

It's such a big hand. You need to be raising like crazy with it.

I think it's worth saying again, you are not looking to flop the nut flush draw in the hopes of making it and betting for value. You are looking to exercise leverage on top pair hands and induce them to fold. You're looking to make the pot play big so that top pair hands can't continue. You get the added benefit of making second best flushes pay you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Sort of. But the nut flush and a pair is a hell of a lot different than a simple flush draw.

And again, this is the anomoly. How likely are you to flop the nut FD AND the pair? How likely are you to beat a smaller flush?

And if the strength is nothing but leverage, then f--- it. I can create leverage with a 72o just as easily as long as I don't have to turn it over.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's a great episode of live at the bike with Barry Greenstein doing the commentary. There were two or three times where Axs made a pair and a draw and his reaction was always the same, "with that hand I'm just looking to get it all in."

It's such a big hand. You need to be raising like crazy with it.

I think it's worth saying again, you are not looking to flop the nut flush draw in the hopes of making it and betting for value. You are looking to exercise leverage on top pair hands and induce them to fold. You're looking to make the pot play big so that top pair hands can't continue. You get the added benefit of making second best flushes pay you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Sort of. But the nut flush and a pair is a hell of a lot different than a simple flush draw.

And again, this is the anomoly. How likely are you to flop the nut FD AND the pair? How likely are you to beat a smaller flush?

And if the strength is nothing but leverage, then f--- it. I can create leverage with a 72o just as easily as long as I don't have to turn it over.

[/ QUOTE ]

well w/ the nut FD you also have an overcard to the board so you are practically coinflipping vs a non ace top pair hand or an overpair that isnt AA and you have a lot of fold equity

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's a great episode of live at the bike with Barry Greenstein doing the commentary. There were two or three times where Axs made a pair and a draw and his reaction was always the same, "with that hand I'm just looking to get it all in."

It's such a big hand. You need to be raising like crazy with it.

I think it's worth saying again, you are not looking to flop the nut flush draw in the hopes of making it and betting for value. You are looking to exercise leverage on top pair hands and induce them to fold. You're looking to make the pot play big so that top pair hands can't continue. You get the added benefit of making second best flushes pay you off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Sort of. But the nut flush and a pair is a hell of a lot different than a simple flush draw.

And again, this is the anomoly. How likely are you to flop the nut FD AND the pair? How likely are you to beat a smaller flush?

And if the strength is nothing but leverage, then f--- it. I can create leverage with a 72o just as easily as long as I don't have to turn it over.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah you can try but if you actually want to create it you're going to get called sometimes and have to turn them over, so a NFD w/ 9-12 outs is obv a ton better than 72o

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Axs first in in late MP and LP constitutes a mandatory raise for me unless there are reasons not to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I have been taught the same thing. My question isn't "What are we doing?" My question is "Why are we doing it"?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are doing it for value. It has folded to you in late position and you most likely have the best hand. Of course, if your kicker is weak and you are reraised, without a specific read, you should fold. Otherwise you are probably way ahead and even if you aren't, a c-bet on pretty much any flop will probably take it down.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]

And again, this is the anomoly. How likely are you to flop the nut FD AND the pair? How likely are you to beat a smaller flush?


[/ QUOTE ]

Really what I was going for there was that a NFD + pair is so strong that you don't care whether you get called or not. You have terrific equity against almost anything the villain may have. With a naked FD, you'd prefer the villain lay down whatever he may have for the most part.

You can create leverage with 72o for sure, but you don't have the safety net. If you make the pot play big with 72, you hate a call. With Axs, it's not so bad.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just tried to clean NotFreeMonies bug off the screen.... levelled.

[/ QUOTE ]

I called my wife in to help me! She didn't think it was as funny as I did!

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Nut draws are so powerful because you can put tremendous pressure on your opponents with a really good safety net, not because you can passively draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, great quote!

Edit: I am a better player for having read this thread! Nice job guys!

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

First of all, I don't know how the set vs Axs debate got going. The question was why do we raise it, and the answer is the same for both. FWIW I prefer a PP, but whatever.
We raise hands like Ax because playing a pot in position against the blinds is a good spot to be in.

You are absolutely right that 72o can play out the same if we are just folding people out, and that is why good players are very loose and aggressive from the CO and BTN.
We play Ax more than 72o b/c we are more likely to make the best hand, and we can't expect to fold out the blinds every time.
We play Axs b/c it is slightly better than Axo
We play PP b/c they are often the best hand to start and flopping a set will almost ensure they are the best hand.

One more small thing is that having an A in your hand doesn't just mean that you have a strong hand, it means the blinds are slightly less likely to have an A themselves, and therefore be slightly less likely to have a hand they can call a raise with

You are correct in stating many of the points (such as Axs vs Axo) are small differences, but poker is about getting as many small edges as you can.
I remember a high stakes limit player saying he won about 55%. He was rich b/c of that 55/45 edge.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just tried to clean NotFreeMonies bug off the screen.... levelled.

[/ QUOTE ]

...me too

Wish there was a way to put this bug on my PStars avatar icon...would drive people crazy

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

Bump

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, I don't know how the set vs Axs debate got going. The question was why do we raise it, and the answer is the same for both. FWIW I prefer a PP, but whatever.
We raise hands like Ax because playing a pot in position against the blinds is a good spot to be in.

You are absolutely right that 72o can play out the same if we are just folding people out, and that is why good players are very loose and aggressive from the CO and BTN.
We play Ax more than 72o b/c we are more likely to make the best hand, and we can't expect to fold out the blinds every time.
We play Axs b/c it is slightly better than Axo
We play PP b/c they are often the best hand to start and flopping a set will almost ensure they are the best hand.

One more small thing is that having an A in your hand doesn't just mean that you have a strong hand, it means the blinds are slightly less likely to have an A themselves, and therefore be slightly less likely to have a hand they can call a raise with

You are correct in stating many of the points (such as Axs vs Axo) are small differences, but poker is about getting as many small edges as you can.
I remember a high stakes limit player saying he won about 55%. He was rich b/c of that 55/45 edge.

[/ QUOTE ]


THANK YOU!!! Great post.

I keep on getting off track in this thread, so I'll try to rephrase my original question by addressing some good points that this post brought up.

My basic point is this: Axs is most valuable when it's in a multiway pot. This is because (like all drawing hands) it usually misses, but when it hits, it is so powerful that the number of opponents it's againist doesn't matter as much. The nuts will beat 10 limpers just as easily as it will beat 1 person heads up.

This is why it's usually best to limp with drawing hands. You want as many opponents as possible so that you are getting equity on a low percentage investment that pays off rarely, but very well when it does.

The whole point of my thread originally was this: When you play Axs heads-up, you are basically turning it into Axo. Yes, it still might make a good draw, but because you are heads-up, now you have to begin thinking about playing it for it's high card value rather than it's drawing power.

In a multiway pot, I have no problem playing A3s and folding againist action if all I flop as an ace.

Heads up, you can't always muck if you flop top pair. Your initial preflop investment makes up too much of the pot to give up so easily.

Yes, it is possible to make a big draw, but the chances that you will make this draw at the same time that the villian will make a hand willing to pay you off are so small, that's not worth considering.

I'm perfectly fine with saying that's okay to steal with Axs, but not because of the nut flush draw. in a heads-up pot, the difference between Axs and Axo is almost nothing.

If we are stealing with Axs, we should probably be stealing with Axo, too.

Does that make more sense?

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

"I'm perfectly fine with saying that's okay to steal with Axs, but not because of the nut flush draw. in a heads-up pot, the difference between Axs and Axo is almost nothing.

If we are stealing with Axs, we should probably be stealing with Axo, too."


ok, here goes.
I guess the short answer would be: yes, we should steal with both of these hands.
You are totally right on with the point about and drawing hands playing well multiway.
The reason we play Ax late, suited or not, is to steal. when we get called, we have position with a decent hand.

"Yes, it is possible to make a big draw, but the chances that you will make this draw at the same time that the villian will make a hand willing to pay you off are so small, that's not worth considering."
Part of playing well in pos is playing agg and putting a lot of pressure on opponent.
out of all possible combinations of hands, you are right to say the chances of this situation occurring are small.
However, having outs when you do walk into a big hand is huge.

I played a hand today where i was BTN vs BB. I applied a lot of pressure, as I usually do, b/c, quite simply, people will usually give up. That is a big secret to poker I'm giving you right there LOL!
Im sort of exaggerating, I also had a strong pair that figured to be good a lot of the time anyway. I also had a flush draw to go with my pair. I got a raise from BB, but I knew he was capable of doing this with a hand weaker than mine, as people make moves in these situations. I shoved thinking my hand was good a lot, and if it isn't I have outs.
Most of the time my opponent would have folded, but this time he had a set. Hmm, I believe I am pontificating
needlessly; I hit a flush on river.

point is we need to apply pressure and flush draws help us win 1/3 of the time even when we step in [censored].
but yeah, raise with ax and tons of other crap in LP anyway.

also, i'd like to add i am just trying to explain my thinking, I hope i haven't come off like someone who thinks he knows everything b/c I [censored] play NL50

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I applied a lot of pressure, as I usually do, b/c, quite simply, people will usually give up. That is a big secret to poker I'm giving you right there LOL!

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for the sage advice.

[ QUOTE ]

Im sort of exaggerating, I also had a strong pair that figured to be good a lot of the time anyway. I also had a flush draw to go with my pair. I got a raise from BB, but I knew he was capable of doing this with a hand weaker than mine, as people make moves in these situations. I shoved thinking my hand was good a lot, and if it isn't I have outs.
Most of the time my opponent would have folded, but this time he had a set. Hmm, I believe I am pontificating
needlessly; I hit a flush on river.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but this kind of pointing to one example of a thing that happened to you one time is the kind of thing that got us off on the set tangent.

I have no problem with playing a flush draw fast. I agreed, but this has nothing to do with the topic because playing Axs specifically for the nut draw and stealing with Axs are two completely seperate things imo.

Let's look back at pocket pairs for a minute. When we raise heads up with a small pocket pair, we aren't looking to set mine. It might happen, but our goal should be to fire out hard and hope that our villian doesn't have top pair. Anyone who is giving up after missing their set on a steal attempt has absolutely no business trying to steal with a small pocket pair because they clearly have no idea what they are doing.

Same applies for Axs. Yes, we might hit the flush draw, but we can't just give up the 90% if the time when we don't. The flush potiential is a minor added bonus, but because it's only coming a little more than 10% of the time, it's clearly not the reason we are stealing with this hand.

90% of the times we don't flop a flush draw and so 90% of the time, Axs and Axo are exactly the same hand. (First person who starts bringing up something as unlikely as back-door flush potiental is getting a f-ing beatdown.)

I refuse to believe that the 10% of the time that Axs flops a flush draw is significant enough to make Axs a better hand to steal with than Axo.

Got it?

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

Well, it is obviously slightly better.
Whether it is better or not is irrelevant though, because we should

[ QUOTE ]
raise with ax and tons of other crap in LP anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

Let's say that you only showdown and have a flush with Axs 1% of all hands you steal with it... How big is the average pot you take down in this spot? 40 BBs? That's giving Axs an EV .4 BBs higher than Axo. That can be pretty significant when you're contemplating making a steal for about 4 BBs.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

Axo isn't as good as Axs. That's why I don't steal with it. In the long run, that extra expectation is crucial.

Re: Why do we steal with Axs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, it is obviously slightly better.
Whether it is better or not is irrelevant though, because we should

[ QUOTE ]
raise with ax and tons of other crap in LP anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

no, you shouldn't