Anyone check raising this river????
 

Hero [ 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]

marcel78x posts blind ($1.50), Hero posts blind ($3).


PRE-FLOP

baskets12 bets $6, Lottomonkey_ folds, jakos13 calls $6, marcel78x calls $4.50, Hero calls $3.

FLOP [board cards: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ]

marcel78x checks, Hero bets $3, baskets12 bets $6, jakos13 calls $6, marcel78x calls $6, Hero calls $3.

TURN [board cards: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]

marcel78x checks, Hero checks, baskets12 bets $6, jakos13 calls $6, marcel78x calls $6, Hero bets $12, baskets12 calls $6, jakos13 calls $6, marcel78x calls $4.55 and is all-in.

RIVER [board cards: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]

Hero bets $6, baskets12 calls $6, jakos13 calls $6.


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Anyone for check raising this river knowing baskets12 is a tag and the other guy a passive fish???

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

Tag has flush or he flopped set. Tag will never bet this river. And passive fish also doesnt. So I think bet out is good

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

Are you raising the turn because you didn't believe him on the flop? I don't think that turn card changes much. I don't think I would raise there unless I had a read and I might consider donking the turn.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

What do you mean that turn doesn't change anything??? Chances for him having the A goes way down when that A hits on the turn. nothing says he has the A on the flop 10,10d-K,Kd plays like this on the flop quite often.
Another thing that changes on that turn is that you have the opportunity of getting two more bets from two fishes in the hand ( when your hand is good ).

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

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Chances for him having the A goes way down when that A hits on the turn.

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Likewise chances for him having a flush or a set goes up equivalently.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

don't raise the turn, donk the river.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

I don't like the turn CR vs a TAG. What do u think his range is betting agaisnt 3 opps on this board? River is an easy bet.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

Totaly misread first time. Turn CR bad. Donk river good

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

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I don't like the turn CR vs a TAG. What do u think his range is betting agaisnt 3 opps on this board? River is an easy bet.

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Wouldn't you raise 10,10d-K-Kd on this board and wouldn't you bet that turn???


Just to clarify something here by TAG I don't mean a guy who plays 20ù of his hands and raises 10% of them. This guy is 30/20 I personally consider this tag nowadays.

It seems to me that you guys are ignoring the fact that there are two fishes in this hand too. The times I'm good here I get two more big bets out of these fish ( at least ) which is more than enough to offset times I'm behind and pay one more bet.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

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Wouldn't you raise 10,10d-K-Kd

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If I am reading the hand history correct. NO! And to be honest I think that would be pretty awful

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

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Wouldn't you raise 10,10d-K-Kd on this board and wouldn't you bet that turn???

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I think it is one thing for him to raise flop with TT or KK. But when two players cold calls two behind he can´t really like his hand that much.And then he also knows that a good player donked flop and is more likely to have an ace than not.
Also better Ax hands,sets,and two diamond hands are significantly more combos than his KK-TT hands.
And I think we should heavily discount the number of times he bets turn with the latter hands anyway (especially QQ-TT). We are also risking a 3-bet if we are up against a better hand. Plus that one of the fish already can have made a flush which he slowplays brilliantly.
To sum it up I don´t think the fish offers enough overlay to make the checkraise profitable.

At the river I would just bet.Baskets call on turn indicates that it is a big risk that he won´t bet this river

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

As others have said, I dont C/R turn, but I do bet river.

Also the turn only lets us overtake a flopped 2 pair, I would be far more worried about a flopped set than flopped 2 pair.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

I find the donk bet on the flop very interesting. This is something I almost never do, is that the right play in this instance? I have noticed good players donk betting flops more often and I am trying to figure out why.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

I'm not sure there are more combos that beat me.

Let's see.

An A left four K,Q,J,10 that beat me it's 16 combos
A pair of 5 or 7 that's three combos left for each so 6 combos

A pair of Aces 1 combo and any non A flush hand like J,10+
Q,Js - K,Js and maybe J,9s so 6 more combos

So 29 combos that beat me. Now let's see what I beat

Any hand from 8,8-K,K that's 6 combos each so 36 combos and maybe A,8s or even A,6s but I don't count them anyways I have more combos that lose to me here.


Anyways so everyone agrees that I shouldn't raise this turn. Now how would you play this if you knew your opponent becomes over aggro on three to flush or straight boards???

This guy would have waited for the turn to raise and charge fishies the max if he had A,K-A,Q and he would have just called down if he had K,K or Q,Q with a diamond in them. Anyways my way of seeing this hand is probably read and result based. actually I asked a question about the river because I was sure about my turn play and since I was putting him on 10,10-K,K I thought a check raise on the river would make sens since he has a full house and he wouldn't play the flush like that on that turn ( he would have reraised me back).

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

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Wouldn't you raise 10,10d-K-Kd on this board and wouldn't you bet that turn???

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I think it is one thing for him to raise flop with TT or KK. But when two players cold calls two behind he can´t really like his hand that much.And then he also knows that a good player donked flop and is more likely to have an ace than not.
Also better Ax hands,sets,and two diamond hands are significantly more combos than his KK-TT hands.
And I think we should heavily discount the number of times he bets turn with the latter hands anyway (especially QQ-TT). We are also risking a 3-bet if we are up against a better hand. Plus that one of the fish already can have made a flush which he slowplays brilliantly.
To sum it up I don´t think the fish offers enough overlay to make the checkraise profitable.

At the river I would just bet.Baskets call on turn indicates that it is a big risk that he won´t bet this river

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Why do you think that he doesn't bet a pair hand when the A gets paired???? Actually that sounds quite standard to me. If he raises this flop with a pair I don't see why he wouldn't bet the turn when the A gets paired.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

Here is what poker stove says correct me if I'm wrong.

72,732,000 games 21.656 secs 3,358,514 games/sec

Board: Ad 7d 5d Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.602% 45.79% 03.82% 33300876 2775649.00 { Ah9d }
Hand 1: 24.309% 22.98% 01.33% 16714138 966424.00 { 55+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+ }
Hand 2: 13.044% 11.80% 01.24% 8582844 904612.50 { 66+, A2s+, K7s+, K5s, Q9s+, Q7s, Q5s, J9s+, J7s, J5s, T9s, T7s, T5s, 97s, 95s, 87s, 85s, 75s, 65s, 53s+, A5o+, KQo }
Hand 3: 13.044% 11.80% 01.24% 8582844 904612.50 { 66+, A2s+, K7s+, K5s, Q9s+, Q7s, Q5s, J9s+, J7s, J5s, T9s, T7s, T5s, 97s, 95s, 87s, 85s, 75s, 65s, 53s+, A5o+, KQo }

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

So given the flop action you think all these guys can have Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

Those ranges are way of.

Oh and OP. If you think you are so right and that everyone here is so wrong, why do you post the hand?

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

So stove it for me. All you can do here is put ranges you can't really stove each situation and discount this hand or that hand from the range. for two fishes those ranges are not off at all these guys are 70/5/0.3 type. in this hand one called all the way and all the raises with pocket 6 and the other guy with K,4o with the Kd so no these ranges are not way off.

And i don't say I'm right here but all we have here are people saying they wouldn't play the hand like that but no one says why. the only person giving real reasons is Apnage and I was discussing the reasons he gave in the last two posts with him.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

If you were confident enough that villain would raise KK-88 on this flop and bet the turn into 3 callers, then the river looks like an easy CR since your hand looks like a flush and a hand like KK couldn't pass up that value bet.

That said, I think its very unlikely that he does have KK-88 given the flop and turn play. I think its reasonably likely he could have raised them on the flop, but once he gets 3 callers he has to believe at least someone has an A. That would be a pretty bad turn bet. On the turn I think his most likely hands are a better A, a flopped set, or a flopped flush, then KK-88.

So, like others have said, just call turn and donk river.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

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So stove it for me.

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No I wont.

You posted the hand to get critique I assume. Then people tell you that turn is bad - which is a very complicated spot to analyse -. I havent ever seen you make a thorough analysis of any hand someone else posted. Why do you expect people should do it for you then?


I already told you that we cant expect a TAG to raise a lot of worse hands on the flop. Apanage told you that even if he did its quite a parlay to expect him to bet again on the turn when he gets 2 coldcallers.

If the TAG is raising KK on the flop and betting again on the turn he is an idiot. You didnt post in the OP that he is an idiot so you cant expect people to tell you what to do under that assumption.


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for two fishes those ranges are not off at all these guys are 70/5/0.3 type.

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Sorry. I missed where you put that in your OP... O wait!




Also. Why the hell would you post a hand and then when people tell you they wouldnt play it like you, you get mad like a little girl...?

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

Basket isn´t raising any pair without a diamond on the flop. So for me it is TT-KK with a diamond which is 12 combos.And I would discount those hands also because I see little reason for him to raise those hands either.Calling your donk with KKd seems like a good move to me.Since nobody ever going to fold an ace and there is no need to drive out worse diamond draws.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

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Also. Why the hell would you post a hand and then when people tell you they wouldnt play it like you, you get mad like a little girl...?

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You need to reread the title and the first post in that case . Never asked anything about the turn.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

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Basket isn´t raising any pair without a diamond on the flop. So for me it is TT-KK with a diamond which is 12 combos.And I would discount those hands also because I see little reason for him to raise those hands either.Calling your donk with KKd seems like a good move to me.Since nobody ever going to fold an ace and there is no need to drive out worse diamond draws.

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Yeah exactly that's what I thought he would probably Call K,K or Q,Q with a diamond instead of raising it but since I think you know the guy you agree with me that he is more likely to call the turn and raise the turn with a good A???
Btw he had T,T with no diamonds. I was putting him more on K,K or Q,Q with no diamond.
another thing I was thinking about is he probably knows that the players acting after him are complet fish and he didn't really consider their call as an A.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

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Yeah exactly that's what I thought he would probably Call K,K or Q,Q with a diamond instead of raising it but since I think you know the guy you agree with me that he is more likely to call the turn and raise the turn with a good A???

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Yes maybe so.But I would expect him to play like that with KK-QQ no diamonds also.

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Btw he had T,T with no diamonds.

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Are you sure that you haven´t misread the hand history? It seems like an awfully bad play considering his playing standards.Can he really think that calling your turn raise is a good thing.

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Another thing I was thinking about is he probably knows that the players acting after him are complet fish and he didn't really consider their call as an A.

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Surely he recognizes that but most fish has one thing in common.They fear ace boards because they have learned that it is the highest card in deck.Two cold calls and a good player donking a scary board against a PFR and two fish that always call can´t be a good sign for him.But maybe he just considered the size of the pot and bet turn anyway.

Re: Anyone check raising this river????
 

Nope he really had T,T with no diamond. the fisrt fish had K,4o with the Kd and the second one had 6,6 no diamond.