*** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

TEN @ HOU 1:00 PM
TB @ DET 1:00 PM
ATL @ NO 1:00 PM
BAL @ BUF 1:00 PM
SF @ NYG 1:00 PM
ARI @ WAS 1:00 PM
NE @ MIA 1:00 PM

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

2u on Wash -7. I'm a Wash homer, but coming off of another game where they dominated but failed to put the Packers away, the Redskins have "something to prove." On top of that, their defense is playing spectacularly, and Tim Rattay is awful. Line has already moved to -8.5 on some books.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Also considering betting (or maybe wonging?) tampa (currently +2.5 on bodog)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

im in for 300 under 35 on blat/buff
and 200 on parlay w the under 35 and -3 balt
good balt d vs bad buff o and their qb situation
and kyle boller doesnt exactly excite me either
this is going to be close tho. 35 is pretty low.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

im staying clear of wash game.
rattay looked bad but he wasnt ready to play
as a 2nd stringer he has been nearly as bad as last wks numbers. and ariz doesnt play badly on the road.

thinking maybe the no/ atl game. gotta think about that one

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

ne/ miami is a no go also. im spooked by how close miami played them last yr. yeh ne is playing out of their minds but that is a monstrous spread

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

in for 300 on no -8, i liked how no played them last yr
w vick but now atl has a qb who doesnt move at all
leftwich is def more of a deep ball threat than harrington tho
and for 200 parlay of no -8/balt -3
above my usual 1k wknd limit. oops.
so im done betting for the wk.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
im in for 300 under 35 on blat/buff
and 200 on parlay w the under 35 and -3 balt
good balt d vs bad buff o and their qb situation
and kyle boller doesnt exactly excite me either
this is going to be close tho. 35 is pretty low.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eek, I dunno. Ravens are 0-3 against the spread on the road this year, Buffalo 3-0 against the spread at home. The Bills won one of those games and lost the other two to last second FG's.

Ravens are insanely overrated in my opinion, they could easily be 2-4. They haven't played one team who has a record over .500 and they barely squeeked out victories against the Cardinals, 49'ers and Jets. Also Trent Edwards is the guy in Buffalo, and he's looked decent. I wouldn't be concerned about him giving the ball away much, especially against a Baltimore secondary that hasn't been as sharp this year. Lynch has been solid too. Baltimore's offense is abysmal at best. I'd take Buffalo +3 here.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

i agree bout balt being overrated.
their offense w boller is pretty weak
id agree that edwards isnt bad. prob better than losman
but buff offense still anemic enough for me.
they def played some good teams so far
but a max of 2 offensive td's coming vs a wk njets teams
is enough for me
dunno either way this is a small edge.
i was thinking spread would be -4.5
and when i saw -3 i was in.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Pretty standard stay-away game imo. I also predicted a 4.5 spread but I think it will be close. The Ravens OL is really banged up as they play rookies at both tackles. I don't see them really exploiting the Bills rush D given that they couldn't average 3ypc at home vs. the Rams. It should come down to the passing games & turnovers which obv. favors Balt w/ their defense but I can see Evans finally making a play or two coming off a bye w/ McAllister out.

BTW I am encouraged that neutral fans seem to like Edwards, though I'm proceeding w/ caution. He does look poised for a rook but still 20 offensive pts in 2 home games is what it is.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

I've been betting NE every game this year as a "project" so it's worked well so far.

NE -17
Washington -7
Tampa Bay +2
Indianapolis -3

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
thinking maybe the no/ atl game. gotta think about that one

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I guess your thoughts are different than mine because I think this line is really inflated. NO has won one game this year(and Seattle really lost that more than NO won)and now they lay 8? On what basis, last weeks Sun & Mon night games? I'll be on the Falcons.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've been betting NE every game this year as a "project" so it's worked well so far.



[/ QUOTE ]

It's worked VERY well so far [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] This week I don't know though. To me it looks too easy which raises a huge red flag. I can see NE being as unmotivated for this game as they were against Cleveland(miracle cover there). If that's the case 17 (you can get 16-16.5 now)is too many.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
thinking maybe the no/ atl game. gotta think about that one

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I guess your thoughts are different than mine because I think this line is really inflated. NO has won one game this year(and Seattle really lost that more than NO won)and now they lay 8? On what basis, last weeks Sun & Mon night games? I'll be on the Falcons.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oddsmakers consider more than just records. Frankly, the Saints are much better than a 1-4 team and they showed it last Sunday night, getting an impressive win on the road in one of the toughest places to play. It's not like the Saints are a vastly different team from last year, they just had a lot to figure out schematically. The important thing I saw last week was Drew Brees had A LOT of time in the pocket and ta da! He looked like '06 Brees. It's not like Drew Brees just got bad over the off-season, it was the pieces around him not getting off on the right foot. When he has time in the pocket, he's a very accurate passer. Also, they played Lance Moore and David Patten more at WR, as Deverey Henderson continues to drop balls that Brees puts right on the money while Patten showed he can be a reliable possession receiver.

On the other side of the field, the Falcons can't do anything right on defense. They have a modestly talented secondary but nowhere near enough pieces up front to stop the run of get to the passer. And Byron Leftwich is not going to be an upgrade from Joey Harrington. Warrick Dunn has been dreadful but Norwood has shown to be terrible in pass blocking to be an everydown back.

This line is right where it should be IMO, and I think I like Saints -8.5.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

It's sounding more and more like Warner is going to start despite his injury. I picked up WAS -325 earlier in the week when the line was just beginning to move. I'm not sure whether I should stick with it or just take the arb with ARI +340 or so. I expect the line to move back a bit over the next day.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Help a Noob Week 7

In my suicide pool, I've narrowed it down to

At Washington -8 Arizona

At New Orleans -8 Atlanta

At Seattle -8.5 St. Louis

At NY Giants -9 San Francisco

I have already used New England, Denver, Baltimore, Dallas, Tenn., San Diego if that matters to you.

Who would you go with out of the ones I've selected?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
thinking maybe the no/ atl game. gotta think about that one

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I guess your thoughts are different than mine because I think this line is really inflated. NO has won one game this year(and Seattle really lost that more than NO won)and now they lay 8? On what basis, last weeks Sun & Mon night games? I'll be on the Falcons.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oddsmakers consider more than just records. Frankly, the Saints are much better than a 1-4 team and they showed it last Sunday night, getting an impressive win on the road in one of the toughest places to play. It's not like the Saints are a vastly different team from last year, they just had a lot to figure out schematically. The important thing I saw last week was Drew Brees had A LOT of time in the pocket and ta da! He looked like '06 Brees. It's not like Drew Brees just got bad over the off-season, it was the pieces around him not getting off on the right foot. When he has time in the pocket, he's a very accurate passer. Also, they played Lance Moore and David Patten more at WR, as Deverey Henderson continues to drop balls that Brees puts right on the money while Patten showed he can be a reliable possession receiver.

On the other side of the field, the Falcons can't do anything right on defense. They have a modestly talented secondary but nowhere near enough pieces up front to stop the run of get to the passer. And Byron Leftwich is not going to be an upgrade from Joey Harrington. Warrick Dunn has been dreadful but Norwood has shown to be terrible in pass blocking to be an everydown back.

This line is right where it should be IMO, and I think I like Saints -8.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

u can get -8 on sprtbk. wot yre saying is more or less what i thought also. either way these r v small edge bets. i feel good bout no/atl but think i couldve held off on balt and their under

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

NFL Underdogs Week 7

-JC

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

bump

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Early game picks:

Washington -325
Buffalo +3 -105
Miami +17 -110
various pieces of Wong teaser bets (TB, NO, Wash)

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

i don't think i have ever butchered line shopping as badly as i did in the nfl this week

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Early games.

Houston -1 for a unit 1 to win 1
Washington -7 for a unit 1.17 to win 1
Buffalo +3 for a unit 1.12 to win 1
Giants -9 at 1.13 to win 1 unit
Also a RR of
Tampa Bay +2.5
New Orleans -8
Kansas City +2.5
Seattle -8

A half unit on each parlay.

Good luck all.

Also here's to every game staying within 6 points of the spread today! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Gettem Daliman!

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

for the Inimical NFL Algorithm SPotting Systematic Addle-Pates

Dallas -9 bet 1.1u to win 1u
NO -7.5 bet 1u to win 1.03u

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

im holding onto my atl/ no -8 bets as is but i got cold feet and hedged somewhat against my previous bet for parlay of 200 on balt -3 and the under 35 by putting 100 to win 135 on buff on moneyline. more i thought bout it more i felt uncomfortable. wasnt a big bet to begin w but i didnt like it.

also put 50 on ariz moneyline to win 165.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

wow ne easily on pace to cover...
i dont think ive ever seen a team blast the line like this

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
wow ne easily on pace to cover...
i dont think ive ever seen a team blast the line like this

[/ QUOTE ]

Tom Brady on pace for Tecmo Bowl type stats.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

tommy tecmo is doing it again...

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

They have Bo Jackson at every position.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Yeah, he's ridiculous. Hopefully they'll take him out at halftime.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

nah belichick is gonna try and score 100 pts

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

good lord. theyre on pace to score 68 pts.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

the pats are sick.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
the pats are sick.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Houston's offense is awful. I wanna hedge my Hou teaser, but I can't figure out a way to do it.

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
good lord. theyre on pace to score 68 pts.

[/ QUOTE ]

84*

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

giants are absolutely destroying this game, which is good cause i need this to neutralize my ravens pick

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Osi Umenyiora = early defensive player of the year favorite?

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

[ QUOTE ]
Houston's offense is beyond awful. I wanna hedge my Hou teaser, but I can't figure out a way to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

FMP

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Tampa had 1st and goal at the 1 and they fumble
&^)^)@^$&*)^*&^$@(*)^(*@^(*$!!!!!!! !

Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
 

Still a small chance of a push in the Baltimore game -3. Maybe I'm too optimistic. Please. lol