Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

Reading lots of Pokey's posts i've tried to apply alot of the things he's said, this situation i thought was a rather good spot to try one of them.

He said something along the lines of betting the river in this spot, because often your opponant shows down a better nothing

<font color="blue">Villian is 21 / 11 / 1.7 (600), his fold to cbet is 60%</font>

How's this, can i profitably bet here and enduce a fold enough of the time? What is the math behind it?


Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $39.10
Hero (CO): $32.05
BTN: $24.65
SB: $23.65
BB: $36.75
UTG: $25.80

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, BB calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.25</font>, BB calls $3.25

River: ($11.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.5</font>??

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

What makes you think he has nothing and not an ace? This line is pretty bad.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

Does he ever have missed spades? Or anything that'll fold to a river bet

EDIT: SPADES!!!

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

Ever. But I dont thik ever enough. I hate you turn bet too. This is not what pokey says [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

I think this board is rather bad and he won't often show down a better nothing, it will more often then not be a something.

You got to put him on a range, one that includes the flushdraw but it's hard to tell how much of his range has the flushdraw included.

His stats are weak/tight so he would probably play his flushdraw like this but he's also playing Ax like this, maybe even JT type of hands (and the river doesnt change anything really)

I think on this board your line is rather spewy

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does he ever have missed clubs? Or anything that'll fold to a river bet

[/ QUOTE ]

he missed alot of clubs, like 3 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

betting 6.5 it needs to work ~1/3 of the time. Betting 3$ still folds the nothing, but saves you when you are behind. The advantage of 6.5$ is increasing the chance to fold a pair of jacks/smaller pp, but I doubt he has that.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

I think the river A is a very bad card for you.. since it makes it MUCH easier for him to call u with a J here. I would like this better if the river were a K or Q

Oops didn't see turn was a K.. hmmm.. I don't mind it as much then actually.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

Im not sure what post by Pokey your talking about but I could imagine it's more in the lines of this hand.

Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $14.41
BTN: $25
SB: $41.45
Hero (BB): $33.26

Pre-Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($0.60) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($0.60) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $0.30</font>, UTG folds

Results: $0.60 Pot
Hero mucked 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and WON $0.87 (+$0.62 NET)

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

No, its not like that at all, infact you probably had the best hand there...

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure what post by Pokey your talking about but I could imagine it's more in the lines of this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't see Pokey's post, but I believe it was about how often times hero and villian both show down a busted draw on the river, and in that situation hero should bet a small amount on the river to fold the no pair hands that still beat him.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Im not sure what post by Pokey your talking about but I could imagine it's more in the lines of this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't see Pokey's post, but I believe it was about how often times hero and villian both show down a busted draw on the river, and in that situation hero should bet a small amount on the river to fold the no pair hands that still beat him.

[/ QUOTE ]

No pair + weak pair, i dont think 3 into 11 quite cuts it

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

[ QUOTE ]
No, its not like that at all, infact you probably had the best hand there...

[/ QUOTE ]

ok - my bad.. and sure my hand could have been best but that wasn't the point. pretend that I have low trash

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

his line is just as often a J or A then it is a flush draw semi thinking Tag/weaktightes call down lighter in this spot im not saying he never has a missed FD here but im not sure if this works often/

Id prob bet less on the river even though it makes it eaiser to call, if we assume the only part of his range he is folding is missed spades and maybe Jacks I think a small bet folds out that range as often as a larger bet.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

This is what I was referencing by the way:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rt=all&amp;vc=1
3. Not river bluffing when it's hopeless and you've been betting. say you've been betting a flush and gutshot draw and its the river with 30 bucks in the pot and the probable drawer checks to you. almost all 25NL players check behind here and i can't say how many times two draws were shown down in these types of pots. the bluff doesnt and shouldnt be big, you just want them to lay down a higher nopair than you have. remember that this only has to work a small amount of time if you're betting 1/3 pot, and the times I try it i'd guess it works about 50% of the time, so take that EV.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

Grunch

What advice has pokey given that makes you want to 3 barrel here ?

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

if the river wasn't an ace i'd like this a lot better.

i don't mind the turn bet if you think he can fold a weaker ace.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

[ QUOTE ]
if the river wasn't an ace i'd like this a lot better.

i don't mind the turn bet if you think he can fold a weaker ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

level? OP playing at 25NL trying to make anyone fold TP?

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

oh it's 25NL... i feel this would work at 50NL though against an opponent w/ those stats.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

He's getting 3 to 1 on his money here, and his stats aren't too awful so I dunno. I'd prefer to bet a Q, J or total blank on the river here, if I'm villain I'm probably calling you with a king.
If you don't mind me asking, what were your stats, particularly Att. to steal blinds and aggression factor by street?

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

[ QUOTE ]
oh it's 25NL... i feel this would work at 50NL though against an opponent w/ those stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

man I need to move up to where they respect my bluffs.... lol

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

3barreling air at micro stakes ?

Yeah,that sounds about the easiest way to dump $$ ..

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

methinks you are misinterpreting his advice

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

[ QUOTE ]
methinks you are misinterpreting his advice

[/ QUOTE ]


Perhaps he does not formulate his advice well ??? .. I mean 'You are weaktight uNL' has to lead to clueless uNL'ers shoving themselves broke ... maybe he needs to elaborate ??

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

When he calls the turn bet what range are you putting him on? The flush draw is a small part of the range that gets here I think. Calling your Button raise from the BB there are various aces that won't be laying down, there's KJ that might not lay down, a QT gutshot made it on the turn. Given that he's passive and you are betting he might have slowplayed an A3s or 3's or J's. For me, this play could only work if there were several Kings that he might float oop with on the flop then call the turn as second pair and definitely fold on the river. Then the range might be wide enough. As it stands, I think he's calling you with way more than he's folding with.

EDIT: Although there are QJ JT type of hands that might call the turn with a pair and a gutshot that would definitely fold here.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

Well, i didnt actually bet the river herea and he scooped with Q9ss. just wanted to check that im getting called almost everytime here.

Oh, and im not mininterpriting Pokey's advice really, its just a shocking spot to use it.

His advice is just "if its likely your opponant has air and you do too, then fire a bet"

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, i didnt actually bet the river herea and he scooped with Q9ss. just wanted to check that im getting called almost everytime here.

Oh, and im not mininterpriting Pokey's advice really, its just a shocking spot to use it.

His advice is just "if its likely your opponant has air and you do too, then fire a bet"

[/ QUOTE ]

how many opponents call 2 streets with draws oop? what other hands do they do this with? flush draws don't make as much of typical villain ranges as you might think.

Re: Application of Pokeys advice, 3 barreling
 

grunch..

he has Ax like 90% of the time here, spades 10%

Jack would have folded to the turn bet, maybe even the flop since TAGfish are so weak tight.

if you're so excited about the turn, make it bigger

river I guess you can try to rep it, but villain probably has AT/AJ?/AQ

the only reason to bet this river is the fact that it's the ONLY way you're going to win the hand. you just have to decide whether betting is -EV or +EV. I think it's -