Expected Income from Poker
 

Let's say you are an established winning poker player. Your winrate per month ranges from 2.9 PTBB/100 up to 7.2 PTBB/100
If you plan to play 30,000 hands per month, you should expect to earn on average the following amounts per month/per level.

Online Pro Expected Monthly Income(30,000 Hands):
NL200: 3480-9480 ($41,000 to $113,760 annually)
NL400:7000-17000 ($84,000 to $204,000 annually)
NL600: 10440-26244 ($125,280 to $314,928 annually)
NL1000:17400-43,200 ($208,800 to $518,400 annually)

Do you guys fine these numbers to be realistic, and is anybody maintaining these over the long term? These numbers seem ridiculously high to me!

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

I'm sure numerous people are.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

Not every winning player is beating the game for ~3ptbb at those levels, either.

Also, do the calcs for 80k hands and get back to me for 400nl, kthx.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

These are definitely within reason. Your winrates are pretty high (2.9 PTBB/100 at NL1000 is like, ridiculously excellent and 7.2 and not achievable). 30,000 hands however is easy to triple for people with good work ethic.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

341414346636235.23

precisly

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you are an established winning poker player. Your winrate per month ranges from 2.9 PTBB/100 up to 7.2 PTBB/100
If you plan to play 30,000 hands per month, you should expect to earn on average the following amounts per month/per level.

Online Pro Expected Monthly Income(30,000 Hands):
NL200: 3480-9480 ($41,000 to $113,760 annually)
NL400:7000-17000 ($84,000 to $204,000 annually)
NL600: 10440-26244 ($125,280 to $314,928 annually)
NL1000:17400-43,200 ($208,800 to $518,400 annually)

Do you guys fine these numbers to be realistic, and is anybody maintaining these over the long term? These numbers seem ridiculously high to me!

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of these winrates are too high but alot of ppl are putting in way more hands and probably making alot more money than you predict

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

I think what your describing would be the winrate of a very very good player.......the average winning player would have a range much lower than this I would think....this year my worst month was 2.5 and my best was 5 at limits ranging from 2-4 up to 5-10 nl, and I still feel I'm definitely an above average winning player. but I 8 table, and put in alot of hands (correlation: not always playing my best).

Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
 

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

interesting

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

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Not every winning player is beating the game for ~3ptbb at those levels, either.

Also, do the calcs for 80k hands and get back to me for 400nl, kthx.

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80,000 hand at 2.0 ptbb/100 is 6400. 3.0 would be 9600.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

yeah we make monies

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think what your describing would be the winrate of a very very good player.......the average winning player would have a range much lower than this I would think....this year my worst month was 2.5 and my best was 5 at limits ranging from 2-4 up to 5-10 nl, and I still feel I'm definitely an above average winning player. but I 8 table, and put in alot of hands (correlation: not always playing my best).

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How would it change if you 4 table? I would assume it would be a higher winrate. Obviously, if the winrate is lower, but you play more hands, things coud even out. I only 4-table and dont really plan on going higher, im comfortable there. Id assume I would then have a higher winrate.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Not every winning player is beating the game for ~3ptbb at those levels, either.

Also, do the calcs for 80k hands and get back to me for 400nl, kthx.

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It comes out to a cool million exactly.
80,000 hand at 2.0 ptbb/100 is 6400. 3.0 would be 9600.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

It's possible to make 500k a year at 2/4NL if you play like 6h a day average (180h month).

Also winrates are too high. divide them by 1.5 to get correct values.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

so no1 beats 5/10 for more than 5ptBB/100?

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
so no1 beats 5/10 for more than 5ptBB/100?

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tdogg99, who might be the best 5/10 reg on ftp, isnt even close to the upper end of your 5/10 winrate, but, he puts in tons of hours....

someone posted like 200-300k hands and i think he was a hair over 2.00ptbb/100, and he was one of the biggest winners

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

200NL is about right. The rest are kinda too high but you've made some compensating errors. It's not that far from accurate.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

Don't forget rakeback! Also I'm sure there must be tons of people winning between 1-3 PTBB/100 (like me), not exactly killing the games, but still doing quite decently when you factor in rakeback as well...

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

...win-rates seem too high...

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

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so no1 beats 5/10 for more than 5ptBB/100?

[/ QUOTE ]

tdogg99, who might be the best 5/10 reg on ftp, isnt even close to the upper end of your 5/10 winrate, but, he puts in tons of hours....

someone posted like 200-300k hands and i think he was a hair over 2.00ptbb/100, and he was one of the biggest winners

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If the highest winrate for 5/10 nl is 2.0/100, the best players would stay at 2/4 nl because they would make more money.
5/10 at 2.0/100 is $40/100.
2/4NL at 6.0/100 is $48/100.
Your numbers have to be off.
Are we saying then that top players 5/10 winrate ranges from 1-5bb/100?
And smaller winrates range from 3-8BB/100?

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

I disagree w/ everyone here saying that 2 PTBB is near the upper-end of winrates...i think that's VERY achievable for most solid NL winners, and there are a good number of people who seem to sustain 4-5PTBB/100 over 200K+ hands.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

Generally I suspect that the people who are hitting 5ptbb/100 at mid-high stakes are playing 2 to 4 tables and table selecting very carefully, multi-leveling and probably multi-siting. However the big winners in the datamines are going to be the guys who boot up 12 tables and grind 2ptBB/100 at one limit on one site.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

people are banking

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

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so no1 beats 5/10 for more than 5ptBB/100?

[/ QUOTE ]

tdogg99, who might be the best 5/10 reg on ftp, isnt even close to the upper end of your 5/10 winrate, but, he puts in tons of hours....

someone posted like 200-300k hands and i think he was a hair over 2.00ptbb/100, and he was one of the biggest winners

[/ QUOTE ]
If the highest winrate for 5/10 nl is 2.0/100, the best players would stay at 2/4 nl because they would make more money.
5/10 at 2.0/100 is $40/100.
2/4NL at 6.0/100 is $48/100.
Your numbers have to be off.
Are we saying then that top players 5/10 winrate ranges from 1-5bb/100?
And smaller winrates range from 3-8BB/100?

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing I can add to this was that I read an article this year... I can't remember for sure but I think it was from Cardrunners by Andrew Wiggens where he said that he could probably make more money at 2/4 than at 5/10. I don't think this was the first I had heard of this either. Post UIGEA I thought a lot of 5/10 players moved down claiming that 5/10 was much tougher and they could make the same money at 2/4 and 3/6.

I'd be curious to here from some 2/4 and 5/10 regulars what their thoughts are.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/8560/lolpi4.jpg

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/6789/nitxh1.jpg

maybe a little bragish and not a huge samplesize but i think a winrate of 10-12 ptbb/100 at 5/10 is certainly possible for a strong player. i only play 4 tables at most though.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

jesus christ that [censored] for real?

almost 10$ per hand? lol [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

to make it complete:

nosebleed:

http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/9084/nbrm6.jpg

10/20:

http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/2872/1020hy4.jpg

microstakes:

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/8737/510lw5.jpg

these are not as impressive, i should probably stick to 25/50 and plo lol [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] oh and i have about 100k more hands on my laptop which is broken right now - mostly 25/50 and higher with 8ptbb/100 avg

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

awesome results!! What site is this?? Party??

I think a 10-12 pt/100 at 5-10 on fulltilt over a significant amount of hands (150-200k) is impossible. Just for the record.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

its bs guys. he posts on plo threads and his answers dont seem comparable to a winning player.

nice try chaos.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

yeah im really good at photoshop h3h3

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
awesome results!! What site is this?? Party??

I think a 10-12 pt/100 at 5-10 on fulltilt over a significant amount of hands (150-200k) is impossible. Just for the record.

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mostly crypto (an european network) i admit that the games at fulltilt and stars are probably a little harder

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

lol, sup chaos. just kidding guys. chaos owns.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

Theres a datamine of 6max guys where the biggest winners are ~3.5

You can get 5+ by playing a good bit of HU and selectively choosing your opponents. Though no one is beating the 5/10 FTP game over large sample sizes for >4PTBB (Most of this is due to survivorship bias, the ones that can have left the game and are in bigger games)

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
Theres a datamine of 6max guys where the biggest winners are ~3.5

You can get 5+ by playing a good bit of HU and selectively choosing your opponents. Though no one is beating the 5/10 FTP game over large sample sizes for >4PTBB (Most of this is due to survivorship bias, the ones that can have left the game and are in bigger games)

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yeah, i see an awful lot of checking in these bigger games. i think they would make more in the long run by not checking top pair all day..........but whatever.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/8560/lolpi4.jpg

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/6789/nitxh1.jpg

maybe a little bragish and not a huge samplesize but i think a winrate of 10-12 ptbb/100 at 5/10 is certainly possible for a strong player. i only play 4 tables at most though.

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you suck! <font color="white"> at NL5000 </font> [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

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I disagree w/ everyone here saying that 2 PTBB is near the upper-end of winrates...i think that's VERY achievable for most solid NL winners, and there are a good number of people who seem to sustain 4-5PTBB/100 over 200K+ hands.

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you are way off. people need to take a reality check when it comes to winrates.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you are an established winning poker player. Your winrate per month ranges from 2.9 PTBB/100 up to 7.2 PTBB/100
If you plan to play 30,000 hands per month, you should expect to earn on average the following amounts per month/per level.

Online Pro Expected Monthly Income(30,000 Hands):
NL200: 3480-9480 ($41,000 to $113,760 annually)
NL400:7000-17000 ($84,000 to $204,000 annually)
NL600: 10440-26244 ($125,280 to $314,928 annually)
NL1000:17400-43,200 ($208,800 to $518,400 annually)

Do you guys fine these numbers to be realistic, and is anybody maintaining these over the long term? These numbers seem ridiculously high to me!

[/ QUOTE ]

Did the numbers you came out with include some form of either rakeback? or if on stars their vip program?

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

i've been at about 5ptbb/100 at 2/4 and 3/6 over the last 100k hands. even higher at 5/10 but i only have 4k hands so thats irrelevant. i do go to great lengths to find weak tables, and i also think i should probably move up.

there is no way any one can convince me that 5ptbb/100 is not possible at 2/4 and lower for very good players.

Re: Expected Income from Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you are an established winning poker player. Your winrate per month ranges from 2.9 PTBB/100 up to 7.2 PTBB/100
If you plan to play 30,000 hands per month, you should expect to earn on average the following amounts per month/per level.

Online Pro Expected Monthly Income(30,000 Hands):
NL200: 3480-9480 ($41,000 to $113,760 annually)
NL400:7000-17000 ($84,000 to $204,000 annually)
NL600: 10440-26244 ($125,280 to $314,928 annually)
NL1000:17400-43,200 ($208,800 to $518,400 annually)

Do you guys fine these numbers to be realistic, and is anybody maintaining these over the long term? These numbers seem ridiculously high to me!

[/ QUOTE ]

Did the numbers you came out with include some form of either rakeback? or if on stars their vip program?

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no, i just used the range of wintates fom 2.9bb/100 to 7.4 bb/100. based on 30000 hands per month (360000 hands)
the low emd is 2.9 bb/100 which is definitely attainable.