value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

Match has been going for a while, Hazards has been killing me thus far in the match, he's been playing 49/41 (pretty loose aggro for hu), with position stats of 77/77 from the btn and 20/5 from the BB. I have been playing a bit tighter from the btn, but reraising more frequently OOP, playing 22/8 from the BB. He won a bit pot when we got it AI on the flop with my nut flush draw v. his q2 on a 226hh board, and once we got it in on J9x board where he had QQ and I had 108 (he reraised pre and I raised flop and called his shove). He also won a big hand where he reraised pre and I called with A9, flop K99, he had KK.

In general, he has made some moves on flops, the one significant hand that comes to mind is when I rr pre with AQ, bet a low card flop, which he called, and I double barreled the T turn, which he called again. River went check check and his AT was good. Thus, he knows I am capable of double barreling. Also, when he did have trips in the single raised pot he raised my CR, and in another hand where he stacked me on an AA2 board when I cr'd he min 3-bet, when I had Ax and he had 222 (money in on turn).

What hand is he repping when he raises the turn here? I am not sure he would float and get it in here with Kx, and AK would likely 4-bet given the flow of the match, and I am not even sure he would raise turn if he hit given the way he played the AT hand earlier.

I just felt I was ahead, so I shoved. Spew, or good play.

Note: I know hu hands are so hard to analyze in a vaccuum, so I tried to include some details. His aggression factor per street has been 4.5/3.2/4.4/9.5 overall 4.3

Thanks,
dlpnyc21




Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $25 BB (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($18052.25)
Hero ($4645)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $250</font>, Button calls $175.

Flop: ($500) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $355</font>, Button calls $355.

Turn: ($1210) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2175</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero SHOVES???

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

Seems terrible vs hazards I would just fold the turn

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems terrible vs hazards I would just fold the turn

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Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

id call and reevaluate, most likely folding to a river shove.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

Uh, wow. I would have played every street differently. 10/25 against an aggro may be a bit over your head...

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

He has a King, fold.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
He has afive and is hoping you're firing a king here on the turn so he can stack you, fold.

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Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

why would this ever be a value shove?? seems terrible to me i would guess he has a 5, 77 or floated and hit the king most of the time.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

Don't know what shoving turn does other than burns money real fast. He'll almost fold a better hand, and it's like like he's raising turn there with A7. If he bluffs so much I'd much prefer to call here, but if he bluffs so much I'd give him way more leeway and checked the turn in the first place.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

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He has afive and is hoping you're firing a king here on the turn so he can stack you, fold.

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ya that too

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

smells a lot like trips/boat or bluff, shoving seems unnecessary. i mean, shove is only best against like, TT/JJ/semibluff that has odds to stack off, and thats a small part of his range.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

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He has afive and is hoping you're firing a king here on the turn so he can stack you, fold.

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the way the match has played so far, he is raising a 5 on this flop a very large % of the time. i really doubt he ever shows up with a 5 here. playing Kx like this is very awkward.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems terrible vs hazards I would just fold the turn

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have you ever played him hu? 6max he is very tagish, but HU he is far more loose/aggro (in relation to others stats, not in a vaccuum).

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
smells a lot like trips/boat or bluff, shoving seems unnecessary. i mean, shove is only best against like, TT/JJ/semibluff that has odds to stack off, and thats a small part of his range.

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also, i am sorry if i didn't mention this, but he floats the flop so often in rr pots, that not firing this turn like this from time to time is asking to get run over (see the AQ hand where he floated with AT and picked up a T on the turn). So far in the match he has shown down two hands in rr pots where he floated the flop with A high. I think his range for floating this flop is any draw (gutter, oesd, any pp, and ace high). Not sure if he shows up with a random K here a lot, and I'm curious to see why he would raise a K on this turn. Generally I am folding all worse hands (this is from his perspective).

If I feel bluffs/semi-bluffs are a huge part of his range here, given stack sizes and board texture, is shoving or calling best? Or, is check-calling turn best? Chk-folding this turn the way he has been playing isn't really an option.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

check-call turn check-fold river loooks like the best play, once u check-call on the turn he should put u on a king and probably wont bluff river unless he got u beat

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
check-call turn check-fold river loooks like the best play, once u check-call on the turn he should put u on a king and probably wont bluff river unless he got u beat

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yeah, in retrospect this looks a lot better. thanks. obviously i am trying to set up the dynamic where his floats are facing a lot more pressure in rr pots, but the K should be seen as a good bluffing card by him.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

This is such an easy fold... yes shoving here is spew.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
also, i am sorry if i didn't mention this, but he floats the flop so often in rr pots, that not firing this turn like this from time to time is asking to get run over


[/ QUOTE ]

IMO the remedy to being floated lots on the flop is to check the turn with your made hands, not bet them.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

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[ QUOTE ]
He has afive and is hoping you're firing a king here on the turn so he can stack you, fold.

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there is no way he has a 5 here. he can have 77, he is raising this flop sooooooo often with a 5, look how deep we are, he wants to stack 77-qq and doesn't want to let a scare card off on flop this deep, and he would also want to build a pot. he doesn't have a 5 the VAST majority of the time. he could have 77, obv. obviously this is opponent and match-specific. but i am pretty damn sure he doesn't have a 5. he is not raising turn with a 7 unless it's K7, also probably not raising qq, i think u can also rule out mid pairs pretty much.

that leaves turned kings, turned FD, maybe 68, 64hh, and occasional aces/boats. and Ax he's turned into a bluff.

what now?

fwiw: i agree with chaos that this is chk-call turn/chk fold river. but i decided to bet turn.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

i would call the turn raise and c/f river if i played it like this

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is such an easy fold... yes shoving here is spew.

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this is def. not an easy fold. it's a poor turn bet, for sure, but i am ahead of a large chunk of his range given the action.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

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He has afive and is hoping you're firing a king here on the turn so he can stack you, fold.

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also, to add. i think if he had a straight draw even as bad as 89 that didn't want to give up, he'd probably float the turn as well. especially if he knows you like to 2 barrel and then give up (or even has seen it before)

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

Based on your description/game flow i think he is semibluffing/straight bluffing a good chunk here.

he is repping 5x, Kx (mainly AK that he wouldnt reraise pre cause of stacks and float flop) and 77/55.

He could also have pocket pairs that he is turning into bluffs, 68hh, 98hh that he floated, and other gutty/oesd+fd type hands, and straight bluffs where he floated flop and decides you dont have a K a lot of the time.

I think given your read of the situation (that he doesnt have a 5 or K often based on past play) then its close between shoving and checking now and making your decision on the river. i.e. you fold on a river heart or fold on a river 6 cause you think it might complete his straight etc.

i think most people are just thinking hazards is a nit here, but hes much more opened up hu and i also think that we should trust gaucho's read cause in hu the game flow is way more important than our read of his betting patterns on how he used to play us in 6max or 9max games in the past.

i say go with your read, shove or call and check call depending on river. its interesting to argue which one is better because shoving is clearly the easier decision while calling means you must have the discipline to lay down on river sometimes when he gets there. i think the better you are/more discipline you have the more you call, and the more youre scared of a river decision the more you should shove.

pros of shoving: no decision to make later, probably ahead given read, some FE against hands like TT/JJ
cons of shoving: lose value from straight bluffs
pros of calling: more value from straight bluffs, hes not folding his semibluffs and youre way +EV vs them, can possibly save money when he gets there and make money when he doesnt
cons of calling: might make wrong decision on river

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, wow. I would have played every street differently. 10/25 against an aggro may be a bit over your head...

[/ QUOTE ]
veil,
if you're implying either reraising preflop or betting that flop is bad then maybe 10/25 against an aggro is over your head.

don't want to hijack the thread, but this is your first post outside of "Televised Poker." it may be confusing for a new poster because apparently it's been decided that it's open season on dlp in this forum (and i understand some of the "results-oriented" ribbing is warranted, but it's gotten out of hand recently), but someone with zero strategy posts really has no place with this kind of swipe at a respected longtime poster.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]

pros of shoving: no decision to make later, probably ahead given read, some FE against hands like TT/JJ
cons of shoving: lose value from straight bluffs
pros of calling: more value from straight bluffs, hes not folding his semibluffs and youre way +EV vs them
cons of calling: might make wrong decision on river

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he would call the turn with TT/JJ or raise with the intention on calling a shove. Who raise/folds TT or JJ here?

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

you people keep saying he is bluffing a straight draw.

why on earth would he bluff a straight draw on the turn and put OP into a push/fold situation? that doesn't make any sense...

if he's bluffing it's bc he was totally floating on the flop and doesn't want to give up so raises here.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
you people keep saying he is bluffing a straight draw.

why on earth would he bluff a straight draw on the turn and put OP into a push/fold situation? that doesn't make any sense...

if he's bluffing it's bc he was totally floating on the flop and doesn't want to give up so raises here.

[/ QUOTE ]

cause he thinks the risk/reward of it is really good?
why wouldnt he do it?

plus i said i thought if he was semibluffing it was gutty/straight draws that gained fd on turn, but now that you mention it i think he might have those hands now.

obviously it does put him in a [censored] spot if gaucho shoves (and he has oesd), but if he just has a gutty he might do it because hes not calling the shove and its not a hard decision for him if dlp does shove.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

pros of shoving: no decision to make later, probably ahead given read, some FE against hands like TT/JJ
cons of shoving: lose value from straight bluffs
pros of calling: more value from straight bluffs, hes not folding his semibluffs and youre way +EV vs them
cons of calling: might make wrong decision on river

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he would call the turn with TT/JJ or raise with the intention on calling a shove. Who raise/folds TT or JJ here?

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very possibly.
but hazards is prone to making big laydowns and after gaucho shoves what is he repping and how does JJ/TT do vs that range? do they have 25% equity?

not saying he would fold just saying its possible for him to do either

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]

obviously it does put him in a [censored] spot if gaucho shoves (and he has oesd), but if he just has a gutty he might do it because hes not calling the shove and its not a hard decision for him if dlp does shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

well doesn't gaucho shove most of the time with these stacks, when there will be &gt;5k in the pot and he has 2kish behind? I mean come on. Maybe it's a gutty, fine, but my point is i think we can actually take out hands that have a lot of outs - especially ones that picked up a flush draw. They just don't make any sense to raise with these stacks. ESPECIALLY if he knows gaucho will 2 barrel and c/f riv sometimes, then calling turn to bluff river makes much more sense with these hands.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

people are advocating folding because they are putting him on 5x and we dont think he is also putting other hands in that range?

i mean if he gets Kx to fold here a big percentage of the time why wouldnt he do it.

i do see your point though since gaucho shut down in the AQ hand, but is he going to be able to rep something by the river based on the way he plays? He has been aggro with big hands on earlier streets and didnt vbet thin on the river with tptk. i dont know if he can pull that off (even if gaucho has a bluff, he might c/r some rivers cause hazards isnt repping anything by that point)

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

How would the villain play 78hh? Do you think he just calls the turn since he picked up outs or do you think he raises becuase he figures he's behind and that he might shake you loose from the middle pairs in your range that are currently beating him? I guess based on stack sizes and the raise amount, making that raise with 78hh would be pretty dumb here.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

basically the hand comes down to this

1. hes mainly repping 5x, AK, KK, AA, set, quads
2. by past action/game flow, gaucho thinks its unlikely he has those hands

therefore hes bluffing a high percentage of the time and we should continue with the hand.

gauchos assumption in part 2 may be incorrect, but i tend to trust the judgment of a good player in the match over an outside opinion in a vacuum.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

It makes zero sense to raise a straight draw on the turn unless he thinks gaucho is double barreling so much that the fold equity of a raise is &gt;&gt;&gt; than the equity in having a draw + the option to fire river if missed... which seems unlikely to me when there are not a whole lot of draws out there so double floating and firing river should look pretty strong..

I really think Hazards has complete air or a 5/K/77, so it seems like a mere question of frequencies.. but this is NOT a value shove lol..

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
It makes zero sense to raise a straight draw on the turn unless he thinks gaucho is double barreling so much that the fold equity of a raise is &gt;&gt;&gt; than the equity in having a draw + the option to fire river if missed... which seems unlikely to me when there are not a whole lot of draws out there so double floating and firing river should look pretty strong..

I really think Hazards has complete air or a 5/K/77, so it seems like a mere question of frequencies.. but this is NOT a value shove lol..

[/ QUOTE ]

its very possible youre right.

youre def right in the sense that gaucho is never getting a better made hand to call, so in that sense its not a value shove at all.

but i think its possible he has some draws on the turn, your logic does make sense, however, an action in the moment (especially on UB) plus what you mentioned about having so much FE on the turn that raising is better than calling.

however, thats not the most important thing in this hand. the majority of the time, he has 5x, Kx, 77, etc etc or is bluffing, and gaucho thinks he can systematically eliminate most of those hands from his range.

the semibluffing hands are just a matter of him having a few more hands in his range that gaucho beats/gets to call shoves, but given the logic of how the hand was played (from an outside perspective might not exist), gaucho thinks those big hands are very unlikely.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

looks familiar... anyway i don't understand why a hand like this is posted on 2p2. no way that people will ever be in favor of this shove.

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

i agree w most of what vanessa says

and good last post ceczar, said it better than i could have

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, wow. I would have played every street differently. 10/25 against an aggro may be a bit over your head...

[/ QUOTE ]

who are you?

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

[ QUOTE ]
why would this ever be a value shove?? seems terrible to me i would guess he has a 5, 77 or floated and hit the king most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...
 

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why would this ever be a value shove?? seems terrible to me i would guess he has a 5, 77 or floated and hit the king most of the time.

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value shove seems to have confused some people. it's a "protection" shove, and the "value" comes from the fact that my hand is often good here, and I want to take down the pot.

results
 

[ QUOTE ]
i agree w most of what vanessa says

and good last post ceczar, said it better than i could have

[/ QUOTE ]

vanessa and daut had some great points in this thread...i shoved, he folded, and that hand sparked a big comeback, which was very nice.