100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

UTG is ~5/5 and very passive after 55 hands. Do I bet the river, and if so, how much do I bet? Keep in mind stack sizes and the fact that any decent-sized river bet leaves me all but committed to calling a CRAI. Comments welcomed on all streets.

(There were a couple regs at this table, so I have edited the HH enough to hide my identity without changing anything important from the hand.)

Hero (MP1): $111
UTG: $132
UTG+2: covers both

CO posts $0.50
CO posts $1
Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1)
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, 5 folds, UTG calls $6, UTG+2 calls $6

Flop: ($24) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, UTG calls $17, UTG+2 folds

Turn: ($58) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($58) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, HERO has $87 left and is covered by villain

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

easy bet of $25-30, i doubt he is checking anything that beats u here, but if he does c/r ai then its a fold as you have nearly 60 bbs left and he got lucky u bet again

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

i def bet, and def not big, probably about half pot

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

I bet the turn. Probably about $25. Check the river if called. I don't like checking the turn and being held to make a river decision against a villain betting his TP. But that's not your question [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like making a smallish bet here of about $20. It's small enough for TP to call but not so large I can get away from it if CR'ed.

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

Usually push.

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

$38 or $42 on the river.

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

what about 40?

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

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what about 40?

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I only bet increments of $10 when the bet is $10, 20, 50, or other multiples of $50. Just a thing of mine.

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

the line i would take here is to bet 38 on the turn. If i get raised, against a nit, i'll just toss my hand, if villain just calls, i can value bet the river. I think this is the best way to play against a nit. Because you knows can find out where you stand in the hand, and get the most value.

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

Okay, so I bet like $25 on the river, and he c/r for $50 more (most of my stack). This is a fold like every single time, right? Regardless of the size of the sample, a nit doesn't ever do this with AQ/less, right?

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

whats his total agression and showdown %, postflop I think thats the 2 most important pt numbers when deciding on if ur gonna river value bet or not. fwiw if he shoves over a value bet its a fold against a nit

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

id go all in on the river.

honestly.

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

Given the weak check behind on the turn, a river bet is manditory. Bet near pot to max value and as a bonus you get an easy final decision.

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

[ QUOTE ]
whats his total agression and showdown %, postflop I think thats the 2 most important pt numbers when deciding on if ur gonna river value bet or not. fwiw if he shoves over a value bet its a fold against a nit

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aggression is meaningless over 50 hands

all in is the best river bet IMO

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so I bet like $25 on the river, and he c/r for $50 more (most of my stack). This is a fold like every single time, right? Regardless of the size of the sample, a nit doesn't ever do this with AQ/less, right?



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Here is the thing, you obviuusly checked the turn behind for A) pot control or B)because you had nothing or a weak hand

AN observant player will realize this and could possibly cr you all in here with anything and you would fold.

To prevent this you need to bet more than an obvious weak value bet

Re: 100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so I bet like $25 on the river, and he c/r for $50 more (most of my stack). This is a fold like every single time, right? Regardless of the size of the sample, a nit doesn't ever do this with AQ/less, right?



[/ QUOTE ]

Here is the thing, you obviuusly checked the turn behind for A) pot control or B)because you had nothing or a weak hand

AN observant player will realize this and could possibly cr you all in here with anything and you would fold.

To prevent this you need to bet more than an obvious weak value bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I played it a bit differently because he was super nitty. Usually, I'd just b/f the turn.