CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread
 

Gogogogogogogo

Projecting Florida -3 v. Kentucky, O/U 71

Florida-Kentucky is a bit of a mystery to me. Kentucky caught LSU at a very good time (injuries notwithstanding), but I think they are catching Florida at a very bad time, coming off 2 losses plus a bye during a week Kentucky played a 5-hour game culminating in one of the biggest wins in the history of the program. No idea what it will open at - Kentucky -3 or Florida -7 neither would surprise me much. I would expect a shootout - both teams present matchup problems aplenty for the other, and Kentucky should have Rafael Little back.

Let's hear your thoughts on this week's games! Lines will be open in less than an hour.

Re: CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread
 

South Florida -2.5 @ Rutgers
Tennessee -2 @ Alabama
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -14
Arkansas -4.5 @ Ole Miss
Michigan @ Illinois PK? (What is Hart's status?)
Michigan State @ Ohio State -18
Auburn @ LSU -13.5

Does UCLA have a semi-competent QB to start against Cal or does anyone know?

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USC -13 v. ND? (Guess - USC has been kinda unpredictable so far.)

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Miami @ Florida State -4.5? (Someone has to win right?)

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I'd go with the following:

South Florida -3 @ Rutgers
Tennessee -4.5 @ Alabama
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -12
Arkansas -5 @ Ole Miss
Michigan -1 @ Illinois
Michigan State @ Ohio State -17.5
Auburn @ LSU -10.5

As for UCLA/Cal, the QB situations are so up in the air for both teams that I'd expect it to be off the board for a couple days. I could go anywhere from Cal -9.5 to UCLA -3.5 on that line depending on how healthy the respective QBs are.

Re: CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd go with the following:

South Florida -3 @ Rutgers
Tennessee -4.5 @ Alabama
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -12
Arkansas -5 @ Ole Miss
Michigan -1 @ Illinois
Michigan State @ Ohio State -17.5
Auburn @ LSU -10.5

As for UCLA/Cal, the QB situations are so up in the air for both teams that I'd expect it to be off the board for a couple days. I could go anywhere from Cal -9.5 to UCLA -3.5 on that line depending on how healthy the respective QBs are.

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No real beefs there other than UT/Bama - 4.5 way too much.

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Texas Tech @ Missouri -7?

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Penn State -4 @ Indiana?
Iowa @ Purdue -7?

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Anyone care to take a Kansas @ Colorado stab?

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Penn State line looks way too low. I'd expect to see -6.5. Missouri and Purdue look about right though.

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[ QUOTE ]
Anyone care to take a Kansas @ Colorado stab?

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Not my area of expertise, but I'd say Kansas -5.5?

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What about Ohio St./Michigan St.??

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[ QUOTE ]
What about Ohio St./Michigan St.??

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Listed earlier in thread - Iggy and I have it at 17.5/18

Re: CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread
 

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Anyone care to take a Kansas @ Colorado stab?

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Not my area of expertise, but I'd say Kansas -5.5?

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I thought -4.5, but I heard that it's -2.5 (not sure what the source was).

If I can get the 2.5 I'll be betting it (not just as a homer).

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Wow Louisville -2.5 v. UConn

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USF+1
Kentucky +5, both 1u

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Barely missed Indiana +10. I'd say it was there < 1 min.

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Uhhhhh...I hope Northern Illinois is pretty frickin bad to be getting 24.5 from Wisconsin.

Also, 27 seems like a lot for Army vs. GT.

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Wake -3 looks tasty. Navy has been pretty bad on balance.

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[ QUOTE ]
Uhhhhh...I hope Northern Illinois is pretty frickin bad to be getting 24.5 from Wisconsin.

Also, 27 seems like a lot for Army vs. GT.

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lol, predicted both moves, bet neither...nice balls, bills.

Re: CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow Louisville -2.5 v. UConn

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I assume you think that is too low?

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Kentucky +6 now. Didn't expect that.

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Wow, I normally find excuses to bet against Wake but I like us at -3. Our run defense is probably the strongest part of the team.

Re: CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow Louisville -2.5 v. UConn

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I assume you think that is too low?

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Yup.

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Kentucky +6 now. Didn't expect that.

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Wow 6.5...those Florida bettors must have really gotten anxious during that bye week. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Tempted by Illinois +3.

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This Missouri line move is pretty baffling...I hit 4, then 3.5, then 3...

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Kentucky +6 now. Didn't expect that.

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Wow 6.5...those Florida bettors must have really gotten anxious during that bye week. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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And now 7. Wow. At home. This is the highest I thought it could possibly be. I guess we'd be getting 14 in the Swamp? Shame I'm out of money at BookMaker now.

This move and the Missouri one really baffle me.

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I like tOSU -16.5 and Illinois +3.5

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Kentucky +6 now. Didn't expect that.

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Wow 6.5...those Florida bettors must have really gotten anxious during that bye week. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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And now 7. Wow. At home. This is the highest I thought it could possibly be. I guess we'd be getting 14 in the Swamp? Shame I'm out of money at BookMaker now.

This move and the Missouri one really baffle me.

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If 7 is gonna be the spread for UF/UK, then wtf total will they project? 83? UK just got 27 against LSU in regulation, leaving points on the field in the process...and you think they're gonna get less than 30 next week with Little back against a secondary of teenagers? When they've scored 40+ in 6 of 7 games overall and every game at home? REALLY?

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Mizzou and UK now bouncing back...bizarre.

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I haven't bet OSU yet this year and have bet against them twice. I wanted to bet them last week but didn't. I like them again this week also. I think ill take that -16.5.

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[ QUOTE ]
USF+1
Kentucky +5, both 1u

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Kentucky +7, 1u
glad I nabbed that USF, it moved a ton

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Wake -3 looks tasty. Navy has been pretty bad on balance.

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This is my pick of the year so far, already have 4 units on it. I only pray that some how it gets to 2.5 so I can get more.

Re: CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread
 

Auburn +10.5

Since November '03, Auburn has lost only one road game, gone 9-1 against the top 10, beaten the spread every game as an underdog, and won the game outright every time as a dog but once (all the exceptions are '05 LSU, a game Auburn lost in OT after missing 5 FGs.) In addition, the Auburn/LSU games are almost always crazy and often go down to the final play. The last 3 have been decided at the very end. I realize that LSU will be rabid for this game, but Auburn will be just as fired up and there is not as big a difference between the two teams as you probably think. Cox always plays solid on the road, and has ice in his veins. After winning at the swamp, I doubt the atmosphere will rattle Auburn too much.

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Louisville -3 4u
Wake Forest -3 +100 2u
Michigan -3 -115 1u

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Texas A&M +2 @ Nebraska

I know this is on the road, but Nebraska has looked absolutely awful the last few games.

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I think you are right that Auburn will cover, this game worries me tremendously though. Scheduled for an 8:15 CST start, which means 90,000 drunk cajuns.

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Rutgers +2.5 (tried to remove it when it moved from +3, but BM made it go through, oh well)
Vanderbilt +13.5
Missouri -3.5
Miami +6
Michigan State +16.5
Virginia +4.5
Illinois +3

Re: CFB Week 8 Early Lines Thread
 

What does everyone think about USF/Rutgers this week? It seems like Sports betting 101 to grab the home dog on Thursday night when they're playing the #2 team in the nation, but I really don't know here.

South Florida's 9.5 points better on a neutral field according to Sagarin so even if you jack up the home advantage to 5 for closely-matched teams and a short week, they should still be able to cover three. Also, Rutgers home advantage really hasn't been impressive at all. They've lost twice at home already to teams (Maryland and Cincy) that are less talented than USF. Also, there's no danger of a letdown or lookahead game so the Bulls should be completely focused.

It looks like the smart play might be just to lay off, but on a high-profile Thursday night game dripping with BSP logic that I simultaneously want to fade and follow, I'm not sure if I can do that. Guess next time I should just spend my Sunday refreshing the Bookmaker lines so I can get USF +1 and make it easy.