AAAT in limit O8
 

In limit O8, nine handed, folded to you in MP3 with AAAT with the ace suited with the ten.

Is the correct move to fold, call or raise preflop vs. unknown opponents?

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

3-6 handed, raise, 9 handed dumper.

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

is it really worth to raise a set shorthanded?

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

Fold. Aces aren't that strong in LO8.

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

Raise - get it heads up with the blinds and play poker. :-)

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise - get it heads up with the blinds and play poker. :-)

[/ QUOTE ]

But you have to play poker very well because you are a 1:2 dog against a random hand.



Monte carlo simulation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Omaha Hold'em hi/lo 8/b, 100000 combinations tested.

Hand | AdAsAcTd | xxxx |
------+--------------+--------------+
High | 13894 | 0 |
Draw | 151 | 151 |
Lose | 57226 | 28729 |
Scoop | 28729 | 57226 |
Low | 0 | 13907 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 35.75% | 64.25% |
------+--------------+--------------+


AdAsAcTd:
Pair win: 22351 draw: 0 lose: 51342
Two Pair win: 4012 draw: 69 lose: 4285
Three of a Kind win: 1638 draw: 7 lose: 596
Straight win: 2306 draw: 75 lose: 267
Flush win: 6379 draw: 0 lose: 464
Full House win: 5814 draw: 0 lose: 272
Quads win: 53 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 70 draw: 0 lose: 0


xxxx:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 2537
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 24914
Two Pair win: 27808 draw: 69 lose: 8832
Three of a Kind win: 6843 draw: 7 lose: 2609
Straight win: 10771 draw: 75 lose: 1325
Flush win: 5313 draw: 0 lose: 1290
Full House win: 5877 draw: 0 lose: 1116
Quads win: 528 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 86 draw: 0 lose: 0

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

i think the real question here is simply "Why bother"?

you have an unprofitable hand, and will almost always lose if someone calls you down, especially if low cards hit.

f your hand was AAA+wheel suited then we're talking a whole different ball game.

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

Folded to me, I almost always raise.

I can get away from it if I need to.

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

Big Biceps - What to do with this hand is entirely opponent dependent.

I have sometimes (but not always) raised pre-flop with this hand. If I get one opponent calling, he/she probably has the missing ace. So we start out he/she reading me for a possible pair of aces plus two mystery cards and me reading him/her for a single ace plus three mystery cards. And then I play accordingly on the second betting round, probably following up with a continuation bet.

Since Hero has three aces, there's a fair chance nobody else has an ace. When I'm playing tightly, the percentage of starting hands I'll play without an ace is very low - less than ten percent.

[ QUOTE ]
In limit O8, nine handed, folded to you in MP3 with AAAT with the ace suited with the ten.

[/ QUOTE ]So UTG, MP1, and MP2 have folded, with LP1, CO, Button, SB and BB yet to act. Let's assume the three hands that folded were aceless.

That leaves five hands that could possibly have an ace. 52-12-4=36 cards that could have an ace and 20 of them held by opponents yet to act. Looks like the probability one of the opponents yet to act has the missing ace is 20/36= 0.556. So it's about 4 to 5 that nobody yet to act has the missing ace. Pretty close.

Even if someone has the ace, assuming you don't usually raise when you enter the action from MP3, he/she should probably tentatively put you possibly on a pair of aces for your raise, decreasing the value of his/her own ace. And the raise will make it at least a bit more difficult for anyone to continue.

If none of them has the missing ace, will they all fold, except maybe BB?*

That is the cogent question. I don't know the answer. I think it depends entirely on your opponents.

*(And then maybe you pick off BB with a continuation bet after a check on the second betting round).

Buzz

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

so basicly you are saying that against tight and _thinking_ villians this hand might be worth a raise, in any other case muck it.

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

Hi Olrik -[ QUOTE ]
so basicly you are saying that against tight and _thinking_ villians this hand might be worth a raise, in any other case muck it.

[/ QUOTE ]I would not describe the villains you might raise as "tight and _thinking_ villians."

Tight villains are probably not playing very many hands without aces. You don't need to raise to get rid of them if they don't have a hand with an ace. And they're simply calling the raise if they do have an ace plus three other decent cards. In other words, the raise is wasted on them.

I take "thinking" to mean intelligent, sharp, and aware. If that is what you mean, thinking villains, tight or otherwise, will tend to not leap to conclusions, will not tend to be gullible. By "gullible," I mean easily deceived.

Ideally you want to use the play against someone who will leap to the conclusion that you have a pair of aces plus two other decent cards, a very solid starting hand with a pair of aces.

So ideally, you want the players who have not yet acted to be a mixture of tight villains and gullible villains. And you prefer the blinds to be villains who do not always defend.

You don't want to raise with this hand and then have more than one villain call the raise! You don't want even one villain to call the raise, unless it's a big blind poster who will check/fold if he/she misses the flop.

And sometimes you will have such a mixture of opponents following you.

Poker, even Omaha-8, is a game of deception. You choose your spots for this deception carefully. Everything has to fall into place - the right cards, the right collection of opponents, the right position, the right table image. And then when opportunity presents itself, you make a move.

AAAT will be suited three times out of four. Even if suited, AAAT is a relatively weak starting hand. No responsible adviser would recommend that you play such a hand from MP3, and yet if an opportunity presents itself, seize it.

Buzz

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

FOLD. This hand can only win you half the pot. You are single-suited. You're probably not going to win if you need the case A to make your high.

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

If you play this hand I want you at my table.

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

The raise is going to work best, against the type of player who'll call to hit the flop, and then fold when they've missed. That's the core reason for wanting to isolate the BB (preferably), if you're up against 2 hands, the chances of getting called on the flop increase significantly. Your ideal flop, is one that looks like it fits your fine raising hand, and should miss your opponents blind defense hand.

If it's a tight caller of type Buzz mentioned, and then you get a flop that's good for a raising hand, you'll probably be in trouble if you persist in bluffing.

The assumption that the folders were Ace-less is only partly usefull, unless the opponents are weak 'Any Ace' type players. There's plenty of Axxx hands that get mucked, by solid opponents. What the folds really tell you, is that noone was dealt a good A2xx or A3xx hand.

Re: AAAT in limit O8
 

Of course my response is generally correct, and Buzz's is absolutely correct.