Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

post your pix and thots here!

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Illinois -3.5 -110

Iowa is BAAAAAAAAAD...

- C -

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Mostly-final slate (piggybacked some cappers' picks):

Wisconsin +6.5
Texas A&M +9
Colorado +4.5
Michigan -5
Illinois -3
Tennessee -3 (3u)
North Carolina +7
Georgia Tech +2.5
Duke +14
Auburn +3
Connecticut +3
Missouri +12.5
Purdue/Michigan U56
Georgia/Vandy O45.5
Arizona/USC U56

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

Tennessee -3 (3u)

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I'd have 3 units on that line too. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

probably a small week for me

I'm out of town and might not have time to get to do all the analysis I want

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Illinois is now -5 on BoDog [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Illini -2.5 both 1u
BC 3u -12
UK +10.5 1u
Ark -2.5 for 1u

Ah, eff it. Miami -2/-110 1u

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Tennessee -3 (3u)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd have 13 units on that line too. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Tennesse -7 1 Unit
Boston College -14 2 Units
Illinois -3.5 2 Units
Miami -2.5 1 Unit
S. Carolina -6.5 2 Units
E. Carolina +2 1 Unit
Georgia -7 1 Unit
BC -13.5 2 Units
Kent/Ohio St Under 49 1 Unit
Georgia/Vanderbilt Over 45 1 Unit
Wisconsin/Penn ST Over 44 1 Unit
Illinois/Iowa Over 44 1 Unit
LSU/Kentucky Under 54 1 unit
Marshall/Tulsa Under 70.5 1 Unit
Oklahoma/Missouri Under 61 1 Unit
USC/Arizona Under 57 1 Unit

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
probably a small week for me

I'm out of town and might not have time to get to do all the analysis I want

[/ QUOTE ]

you better get down on our favorite mizzou prop, its looking really juicy this week... +170 for $300 max at bodog, and +160 for $300 max at the greek

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

From the other thread:

tcu @ STANFORD +6.5 (-105) 1.575u to win 1.5u Sportsbook
ucf @ SOUTH FLORIDA -11.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u Sportsbook
smu @ SOUTHERN MISS -9 (-105) 0.63u to win 0.6u Sportsbook

And adding:

AUBURN +3 (-105) @ arkansas 1.05u to win 1u MB
EAST CAROLINA +3 (+103) @ utep 1.5u to win 1.54u MB

I'm leaning towards Air Force. We'll see what the line does tomorrow. It was a Dr. Bob pick, and now I can't find anything better than -3 -110.

YTD: 3-2 +0.88 units

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Has anyone capped the l'ville/cincy game? any thoughts.
thanks!

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Has anyone capped the l'ville/cincy game? any thoughts.
thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts: Bad matchup for UL. Cincy has a D that can shut down 'ville's offense. UL needs to win games 38-35 obv. because they can't shut down anyone. I can't see them scoring points like that @ Cincy. A better matchup for them would be @ Kentucky where they played earlier...a team that has most of their talent on offense that UL can put up a big number against and hope it holds up. Cincy has a solid D and pretty much any team is going to put up 30+ on UL's D. The kind of problems they have on defense can't really be solved during the season IMO. They are just consistently awful.

Having said all that, I really wish the line would drop under 10 because I've seen a few people on this board and others take the points and UL. Is 10 points enough? Not sure. I def. wouldn't be betting the Cards though.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

FWIW (which isn't much), Phil Steele is picking Louisville to upset Cincy, as well as Mississippi State to upset Tennessee.

I don't know if it's LSU being that public or people being down on Kentucky, but seemingly all the prognosticators are on LSU to rout Kentucky. Spread is 9.5 - vaguely reminds me of Arizona State/Washington State last week. Kentucky has won 10 of 11 at Commonwealth Stadium, had extra time to prepare after the Thursday night loss to SC which they are still smarting from, and LSU just pulled out one of the epic regular season games in quite some time in college football. Watch out.

(My only play on the game at the moment is Under 54.5.)

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Every week I think I'm going to go light, and end up betting 25+ games.

Navy/Pitt Over 53 -108 WIN
Navy/Pitt 2H/Over 28.5 +100 WIN
Wake +6 -108 WIN
FSU/Wake Under 43.5 -105 LOSS
2H/FSU PK -120 LOSS
Hawaii -16.5 -104 LOSS
Hawaii/SJSU 2H/Over 28 +100 WIN
Wash +12.5 -110
Miami -2 -110
Baylor +25.5 -110
S Carolina -6.5 -110
Illinois -3.5 -116
Auburn/Ark Over 49 -110
Georgia -6.5 -110
Mississippi +7 -120
LSU -9 -116
Arizona +21.5 -110
Virginia -3 -101
UNLV +11 -110
Michigan -5 -110
Kent +31 -110
Duke +14.5 -110
Nebraska -3 -120
Stanford +6.5 -115
Tennessee -7 -101
Cincy -10.5 +112

MLs:
Navy +163 WIN
Hawaii -662 EASY WIN
Georgia -253
Tennessee -255
Tx A&M +353
Stanford +208
Auburn +137

I know I said I wasn't betting the Auburn game, but I'm put a homer pick on them. With Tuberville's record in close games and Auburn's kicking game I don't mind passing on the +3 in favor of the ML.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
probably a small week for me

I'm out of town and might not have time to get to do all the analysis I want

[/ QUOTE ]

you better get down on our favorite mizzou prop, its looking really juicy this week... +170 for $300 max at bodog, and +160 for $300 max at the greek

[/ QUOTE ]

omg
Mizzou to score first @ Oklahoma +170 bet 3u to win 5.1u

Mizzou's first drive alone is better than +170...OMG
look at OU's defense trying to stop Colorado late
OK...they held Chase and the boys pretty well last year, but Mizzou's offense is slightly better and OU's pass defense looked suspect when it counted.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

thanks much for the input guys.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Mizzou to score first @ Oklahoma +170 to win 1.75 units

Thanks for the heads-up fellas.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

I am offering $200 of Louisville/Cincy Under 65.5 +105 at Matchbook if anyone is interested.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

early slate: no happy with 3 home faves, but the numbers say there is just too huge of an edge--big fears
1) V Tech cannot score enough off Duke as the true freshman isn't lighting anyone up.
2) S Florida's speed defense gets bulldozed by UCF's power rush attack.
3) Michigan struggles against Purdue's spread despite the lack of a QB run threat from Purdue.

V Tech -14 v Duke bet 2.55u to win 2.5u
S Florida -11.5 v UCF bet 2.55u to win 2.5u
Michigan -5 v Purdue bet 2.2u to win 2u
Baylor +27 @ Kansas bet 2.2u to win 2u
Syracuse +17.5 v Rutgers bet 1.08u to win 1u

Purdue/Michigan u57.5 bet 1.07u to win 1u
Minnesota/N'Western u65.5 bet 1.02u to win 1u
V Tech/Duke o45 bet 1.04u to win 1u
Okie St/Nebraska o62.5 bet 1.1u to win 1u
Bama/Ole Miss o48.5 bet 1.04u to win 1u

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Light slate thus far. Partially by design (after deciding my capping sucked donkey balls and that I wasn't profitable) and partially because I just haven't quite seen the numbers I wanted.

Anyway, I've got:
Illinois at Iowa +2.5 (1st half) (Risk 2.2u to win 2u)
Missouri +12 at Oklahoma (Risk 1u to win 1.02u)
Virginia Tech at Duke +14 (Risk 1.01u to win 1u)

Also still looking at Rutgers -17, Notre Dame +14, and possibly a 1st half play on Kentucky.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

SYR +17.5
Kent +31
DUK +14.5, -115
Miami, FL -3, even
WYO -4
TEX -17, -105
Army +`14, -115
Rice +23
UK +10, -120
IDA +9.5
GA -7
UNLV +11
Iowa +5
CIN -10, -105

Team to score first:
WAS +175
UK +160

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]

Mississippi +7 -120


[/ QUOTE ]

I would consider Ole Piss on the ML here as well.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Will be tracking on my website, per the usual:

Purdue+5.5
Syracuse+17.5
Georgia Tech+2.5
Vandy+7
Wyoming-3.5
San Diego St+14
Penn St-7
Oregon St+14
Arkansas-3
UCONN+3
SMU+9
Arizona St-11.5
Arizona+21
UL Monroe-7

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Wisky +7 1 Unit
Arizona +21 1 Unit
Kent +31 2 Units
USF -11.5 1 Unit
Michigan/Purdue Over 56 1 Unit

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Following the MyTurn lean...

Cuse +17.5 -110

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

I love 2 games today

Oklahoma and Texas Tech both for 5 units

of course I like UGA-6.5 but I have promised yself to not bet it...

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

What if bets and I are on a lot of the same games. However, my top plays. UCF +10.5 (11.5 at SIA I cant get) and PSU -6.5. Both numbers from bodog.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

ok... it kills me to be laying 14 when so many people her are on 12,13,etc... but I just donked up and took BC-14 for 3 units (only my second multi-unit play all year).

I waited and waited and waited for 13.5... and now I'm just afraid of seeing 14.5.

ND is just SOOOOOOOOOOOO bad.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
From the other thread:

tcu @ STANFORD +6.5 (-105) 1.575u to win 1.5u Sportsbook
ucf @ SOUTH FLORIDA -11.5 (-105) 1.05u to win 1u Sportsbook
smu @ SOUTHERN MISS -9 (-105) 0.63u to win 0.6u Sportsbook

And adding:

AUBURN +3 (-105) @ arkansas 1.05u to win 1u MB
EAST CAROLINA +3 (+103) @ utep 1.5u to win 1.54u MB

I'm leaning towards Air Force. We'll see what the line does tomorrow. It was a Dr. Bob pick, and now I can't find anything better than -3 -110.

YTD: 3-2 +0.88 units

[/ QUOTE ]


Adding 0.5u on SOUTH FLORIDA -10 (+100) BetJamaica


As Rush pointed out, if you are on the other side you can still get UCF +11.5 -110 at SIA.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Toledo +5 @ Buffalo bet 0.55u to win 0.5u
Toledo ML +175 @ Buffalo bet 0.5u to win 0.87u

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Iowa +4.5
Texas -16.5
USC -21
BC-13.5

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok... it kills me to be laying 14 when so many people her are on 12,13,etc... but I just donked up and took BC-14 for 3 units (only my second multi-unit play all year).

I waited and waited and waited for 13.5... and now I'm just afraid of seeing 14.5.

ND is just SOOOOOOOOOOOO bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just as a basic sports betting 101, chasing lines is terrible.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Looks like my Rutgers offer went through. Unfortunately, the only reason I even noticed it was an early game is that Syracuse is already up 7-0.

Rutgers -17 at Syracuse (Risk 1.05u to win 1u)

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

I know... I know...

It's killing me.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok... it kills me to be laying 14 when so many people her are on 12,13,etc... but I just donked up and took BC-14 for 3 units (only my second multi-unit play all year).

I waited and waited and waited for 13.5... and now I'm just afraid of seeing 14.5.

ND is just SOOOOOOOOOOOO bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just as a basic sports betting 101, chasing lines is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to mention that 13.5 is still the line on most books.

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

[ QUOTE ]
Illini -2.5 both 1u
BC 3u -12
UK +10.5 1u
Ark -2.5 for 1u

Ah, eff it. Miami -2/-110 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

PSU -6.5/-110 1u

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Baylor +26/-105 1u

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Afternoon

Texas A&M +10.5 @ T Tech bet 2.2u to win 2u
S Carolina -7 @ N Carolina bet 1.1u to win 1u
Miss St +7.5 v Tenn bet 1.15u to win 1u
Miami Oh pk v Bowling Green bet 1.04u to win 1u
San Diego St +14.5 @ Utah bet 1.05u to win 1u
Army +14 @ C Mich bet 1.05u to win 1u
Oregon -19 v Wazzu bet 1.08u to win 1u
Wisconsin +7 @ Penn St bet 1u to win 1.05u
BC -13.5 @ ND bet 1.06u to win 1u
Zona +21 @ USC bet 1.05u to win 1u

Re: Official Saturday CFB Thread
 

Idaho +9.5/-101 1.25u