Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

A lotta lotta people on the Pats.

But I've haven't seen so many people in a while all agree that the road Titans and road fave Giants are the pick this week. Even the non-NYers love the Giants this week.

TB -3 [anyone else notice VY was awful last week?]

ATL +3.5 are the current lines. I'll be on both, just waiting to see if lines improve [as they likely will at bodog, sia, and etc.] Harrington actually looks decent at home this year...odd.

edit: seriously, I'm like 0 for 23 on asking people if they like ATL, or TB this week. This may hit a record soon.

[prior record: Under on Indy/KC playoff game last year. LOL!]

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

indeed

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

I don't like the TB pick (and would be more inclined to take the other side) unless you're getting a good rogue #. ATL seems like a good spot to wait for a better # and pound away.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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I don't like the TB pick (and would be more inclined to take the other side)

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Ex-cellent!

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

KC +3 is a good one. Not sure what people could possibly like about Cinci at this point, but everyone seems to still love them.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

I'm starting to think the same thing about TB/Tenn, though initially I was on Tenn (for 1u). That said, as bad as VY has looked, he just wins games.

I agree in principle on the Atl/NYG game, but I'm not a big fan of putting hopes on Joey Harrington. I'm a bigger fan of playing the over here.

Doesn't it also seem like everyone's on the o for the Pats/Dal game? "TWO GREAT OFFENSES??? I HAS LOCKZZZZZZZ!!! THIS GAME'S GONNA BE A SHOOT-OUT!!!" Meanwhile, those two teams play some of the best defense in the NFL this year.

- C -

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

dude...in a BSP thread of all places c'mon

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That said, as bad as VY has looked, he just wins games.

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but I'm not a big fan of putting hopes on Joey Harrington[ QUOTE ]

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

LOL, Simmons on Tenn, and of course NWE.
His wife [certainly as good a public indicator] on all 3.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
A lotta lotta people on the Pats.

But I've haven't seen so many people in a while all agree that the road Titans and road fave Giants are the pick this week. Even the non-NYers love the Giants this week.

TB -3 [anyone else notice VY was awful last week?]

ATL +3.5 are the current lines. I'll be on both, just waiting to see if lines improve [as they likely will at bodog, sia, and etc.] Harrington actually looks decent at home this year...odd.

edit: seriously, I'm like 0 for 23 on asking people if they like ATL, or TB this week. This may hit a record soon.

[prior record: Under on Indy/KC playoff game last year. LOL!]

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I think you're right on with Tampa Bay and I will definitely take this line! I'm half expecting it to hit -2.5. Tampa got blown out by Indy and Tennessee was able to stay close with Indy, right? Hah! I'm all over TB.

New England opened at -4 to -4.5 and they already moved to -6. If they hit -6.5 which they very well might, I'm definitely betting the boys. Anyone else think part of the reason Dallas looked so unprepared last week had anything to do with them looking ahead a game? Wade will be ready and I expect a decent showing from Cowboys defense (Dallas has a defense?!). I'm on the under and if the line moves another hair, I'm taking Dallas and points. Interestingly, wagerline does not show a huge discrepancy in people taking NE vs DAL.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

I think Dallas looked bad due to 5 Romo turnovers and letting Buf run a kick back. Nothing more to it than that.

Agree with line up to 6 there books are getting much more even action than on other 2 games.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

I think the New England/Dallas over has to be the BSP of the week. All the squares are going to be watching and Brady/Moss vs. Romo/Owens is the dominant story of the week. I'll definitely be taking the under there.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

4.5-6 doesn't really cover many key #s tho. If we can gain the 6, that will be big.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

It amuses me that I always think like a total BSP when doing my fantasy lineups. I picked up Giants defense this week and will be in for a bad surprise I'm sure.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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TB -3 [anyone else notice VY was awful last week?]

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Didn't you hear? Vince Young just finds a way to win football games.

I'm definitely on both KC and ATL. Probably going to add NYJ (any chance it gets to 4?) and possibly MIA.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

First Dr. Boobs -8.5 to -10, now this threat..

u gotta be zhittin' me.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
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TB -3 [anyone else notice VY was awful last week?]

[/ QUOTE ]
Didn't you hear? Vince Young just finds a way to win football games.

I'm definitely on both KC and ATL. Probably going to add NYJ (any chance it gets to 4?) and possibly MIA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Herremans starting
Westy, Thomas, LJ probable
Sheppard Questionnable
already up to 4 in places.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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dude...in a BSP thread of all places c'mon

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That said, as bad as VY has looked, he just wins games.

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Be nice to PSU, he's a good poker player trying to learn this game too. He'll figure it out soon, I'm sure.

I don't see everyone on the Over 53 [basically 8 TDs] because [i'm guessing] a lot of people saw Buf shut down Romo and think NE will have an easier job. Also the Dallas D gave up 3 pts and everyone saw that too even though Buf had SIX turnovers.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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I think the New England/Dallas over has to be the BSP of the week. All the squares are going to be watching and Brady/Moss vs. Romo/Owens is the dominant story of the week. I'll definitely be taking the under there.

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Sounds good to me too. Are chances good that the line goes higher than 53, or is it worth betting now?

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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dude...in a BSP thread of all places c'mon

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That said, as bad as VY has looked, he just wins games.

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but I'm not a big fan of putting hopes on Joey Harrington[ QUOTE ]


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First, go back and count how many straight VY has covered as a dog. I can't bring myself to bet against him when he's getting points, I don't care if it's BSP logic or not.

Second, I never said I'd bet the ATL/NYG line. I like the logic, but I'm not gonna bite on either side.

- C -

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I think the New England/Dallas over has to be the BSP of the week. All the squares are going to be watching and Brady/Moss vs. Romo/Owens is the dominant story of the week. I'll definitely be taking the under there.

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Sounds good to me too. Are chances good that the line goes higher than 53, or is it worth betting now?

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Some consensus sites are showing this pick at sub 50%. I don't think it moves at all.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

A consensus over/under pick for this week seems to be Bengals @ Chiefs O42.5. Wagerline shows a big discrepancy and the line has moved a full point this week (41.5 on Pinny on Tuesday)

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

<--- Also a BSP this week.
I got Titans +3 and Giants -3 (no hook) at good prices and am keeping them.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

FWIW, the real squares haven't even started betting yet. Look at those consensus sites on Sunday morning if you really want to see what the public's on.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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I think you're right on with Tampa Bay and I will definitely take this line! I'm half expecting it to hit -2.5. Tampa got blown out by Indy and Tennessee was able to stay close with Indy, right? Hah! I'm all over TB.


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Hah! Don't let things like facts and logic get in the way of making your decision. What evidence is there that TB > TEN on neutral field?

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

this gonna be a 50/50 Week. 5u -220

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

TB -2.5/-110 1u

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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Hah! Don't let things like facts and logic get in the way of making your decision. What evidence is there that TB > TEN on neutral field?

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The fact that Vegas set the line and is willing to take unbalanced action is enough.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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KC +3 is a good one. Not sure what people could possibly like about Cinci at this point, but everyone seems to still love them.

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This is def. the biggest BSP pick of the week. I'm not sure if it's that anyone still likes Cincy as much as the perception that KC is one of the worst teams in the league. Prior to last week the Chiefs have been better than that though. I'm neither sure why the road team is -3 nor why everyone loves the favorite.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

I disagree. People saw Cleve whomp on Cinci and KC beat SDG. People are on Cinci but not to the extreme of NYG laying 3.5-4 on the road either.

I like KC, just don't think they are in the top 2-3 BSP of the week.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

nice week to make a 12 team "public side" 5us parlay.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

Tenn @ TBAY +2.5

[x] Betting against the public
[x] Betting against guy on the cover of Madden
[x] Betting on home team getting less than a field goal
[x] Making money

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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seriously, I'm like 0 for 23 on asking people if they like ATL, or TB this week. This may hit a record soon.


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LOL, Simmons on Tenn, and of course NWE.

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Naj, I feel stupid even arguing about this but I just disagree with your BSP selection methods.
If you listen to Simmons' podcast, both him and his buddy guess the Bucs line exactly: "what else could it be? they're equal on a neutral field". I think he picked Tenn. in his column because he had to pick somebody and he has to pick every game.

I've just heard lots of squares voluntarily select Cincy as a game they like the most. Obv. it's somewhat subjective, but I listen to my share of radio & stuff.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

On further review, I might just be on the Falcons and nothing else this week. I'm scared to go against either New England or Tennessee as both lines are dead-on the Sagarin predictor and I see no reason to think the lines are shaded.

Also, NE's been averaging a total of over 49 this year playing a lot of bad offenses where they didn't even leave their first team O out the whole game, and I don't see much value on under 52 either. Part of me really wants to bet the Pats ML, but I don't have any reason to think that's a particularly sharp play.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

Very Interesting NFL Week 6.

Prediction: 50/50 today, 6-Dogs/6-Favs.

it's time to prove your skills and knowledge at the NFL...

c ya, and good luck to ev1.

-JC

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

TSG is not part of my BSP selection method at all, I just thought that was funny so I posted it.

I ask guys I know on sales/trading desks all over the country to get a diversified base. No method is going to be perfect, that one is just the one I think works best for my selections, and in Nate's absence last year or this year, I've done pretty well posting those picks. [sample size obvs] No one has to follow them, I'm happy to keep betting them given how they've done.

Also, it seems like money has come in on KC, whereas its moved 10c against TB.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

Sorry guys, I was unable to do BSP research this week. consider it a bye...

See you all next week hopefully.

natedogg

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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TB -2.5/-110 1u

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winnah!
10-3-1 nfl ATS, +5.2u, 0-3 ml

This just in: Jeff Garcia just wins football games. 9-2 last 11 reg season games.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

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On further review, I might just be on the Falcons and nothing else this week. I'm scared to go against either New England or Tennessee as both lines ... I see no reason to think the lines are shaded.

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Public moved the Tenn line the half-point needed ftw! That's why the BSPs are the bomb.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

ATL +4/-105 right now, probably hold off to let the public chase their losses on the MNF game and move it more.

Re: Some brief BSP thoughts [not Nate\'s future official thread] week 6
 

Yea, the ATL pick is going to be juicy tomorrow night imo