ALCS Props
 

I only have one I'm looking at, but feel free to add more to this thread. On The Greek:

Will Indians or Red Sox win 3 straight games?

177 Yes +140
178 No -170

How is there not value on the no here? Is it really that likely that a team will win 3 straight? Obviously the divisional series made it look like it's common, but how often is it? I'll take the lazy seat here and see if any of our resident math guys wants to take a stab at estimating the fair odds on this prop. I'm not sure my square analysis will hold up.

Re: ALCS Props
 

My quick analysis is that there may be good value on the YES.

Let's assume initially that each game is an independent coin flip. Whoever wins G1 now has to win two in a row, which happens 25% of the time. The 75% of the time it doesn't happen, it is because the G1 loser won G2 or G3, and after whichever one they win, there's a 25% chance they'll win their next two.

So the yes is already up to (.25)+(.75)(.25) = 0.4375, which makes +140 a +EV bet, and we haven't even accounted for winning patterns like ABAAA or AABABBB.

It's probably worth doing this type of analysis if you assume that the teams are 55/45 or whatever, or maybe you could create some Excel simulations using predicted game lines.

This bet strikes me as a sucker prop bet where you can get good value on the side that looks instinctively horrible. Part of what makes it tricky is that when you read it you think about whether a specific team will win three in a row and it seems so unlikely. But someone is going to win game 1, and that team then just needs to win two in a row, which isn't so farfetched.

Re: ALCS Props
 

Yeah, I figured I was wrong. Oh well, let's hope I run well.

Re: ALCS Props
 

You'll still probably win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

BTW I just got +200 on the yes for $25 with a friend so GO WHOEVER WON THE PREVIOUS GAME!

Re: ALCS Props
 

Wow, unless I am reading something wrong, you can get the same prop at 5dimes for:

YES +100
No -120.

For a nice arb

Re: ALCS Props
 

Line has no value at the greek now. Someone arbed the hell out of it.

Re: ALCS Props
 

Damn, according to my simulation a streak of three games by either team happens about 61% of the time. I used this post at Vegas Watch to calculate the chance of each team winning each game and then simulated it out. Surprising.

Re: ALCS Props
 

Wagered $25 to win $50! Wagered $6 to win $10! This is an excellent prop bet.

Re: ALCS Props
 

I wish I'd been able to hit the +140. As it was, I got in at +110, +100, and -105. Kelly's a bitch, but you have to believe.

+200 is sick sick sick, way to go.

Re: ALCS Props
 

[ QUOTE ]
I wish I'd been able to hit the +140. As it was, I got in at +110, +100, and -105. Kelly's a bitch goddess of fortune and ez monies, but you have to believe.

+200 is sick sick sick, way to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: ALCS Props
 

Here are two more props I like. After estimating the line for each game and then simulating the series out there there is small value in:

Series ends in 5 games +270 (good until +260)
Series does not end in game 7 -253 (good until -262)

Both at 5dimes.


Both of these assume they go Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzka, Wakefield, Beckett, Shilling, Matsuzka and Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, Byrd, Sabathia, Carmona. If think either team will do otherwise this is pretty useless.

Re: ALCS Props
 

if anyone has an account at BetOnline, they have this at +160 for the yes.

Re: ALCS Props
 

[ QUOTE ]
I only have one I'm looking at, but feel free to add more to this thread. On The Greek:

Will Indians or Red Sox win 3 straight games?

177 Yes +140
178 No -170

How is there not value on the no here? Is it really that likely that a team will win 3 straight? Obviously the divisional series made it look like it's common, but how often is it? I'll take the lazy seat here and see if any of our resident math guys wants to take a stab at estimating the fair odds on this prop. I'm not sure my square analysis will hold up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet, my square logic failed me. Go -EV wagers!

Re: ALCS Props
 

Shouldn't the yes be significantly favored when games are coinflips?

I'm too lazy to do the basic math out and don't know higher maths to figure it. Whatev.

Re: ALCS Props
 

[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't the yes be significantly favored when games are coinflips?

I'm too lazy to read the thread. Whatev.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

Re: ALCS Props
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't the yes be significantly favored when games are coinflips?

I'm too lazy to read the thread. Whatev.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Word. I just realized someone posted the answer. I did the mathament actually like 5 minutes after posting and got 19/32 for coinflips. Obv no sense in exerting myself too much.

Note: I didn't do the mathament. TomCowley explained a Fourier sequence to me, which still somewhat eludes me. But did help in this.

Note 2: Don't grunch my random thoughts in essentially completed threads.

Note 3: +EV bets do come up... I should possibly read and bet them.

Re: ALCS Props
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't grunch my random thoughts in essentially completed threads.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't mind me. I'm just bitchy that the over 10.5 I loaded up on in the live betting of the Cle/Bos game didn't cover after they had 10 runs in the 6th.

Re: ALCS Props
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wagered $25 to win $50! Wagered $6 to win $10! This is an excellent prop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you math and Cleveland! Business class flight upgrade ftw!