Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

Live 10-20 in AC. Loose game (5-6 to flop on average).

UTG+1 is an 80+ year-old, with a hearing aid, that i've never seen before. He's been at the table with me for 2 hours and not raised PF once. He's CR two turns, and took down both of those pots uncontested.

MP is a donator i've played with before. He's loose (any two suited, J2o, etc.) and passive.

My image is tight, nothing special, just a quiet guy.

UTG+1 raises, I cold-call next in with AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP calls. Two LP players call. SB folds. BB calls. 6 players for 12.5 sb.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Check to UTG+1 who bets, I raise, MP calls, 1 LP calls, others fold, UTG+1 calls. 20.5 sb/10.25 bb.

Turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG+1 checks, I bet, MP raises, LP folds, UTG+1 3-bets.

My main question is how many outs do you value my hand as being, and what should I do here? is it close?

Any other comments appreciated as well.

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

very interesting spot... do we put utg AKh/AJh/AhAx/KhKx/99 with heavy weight on AhKh... i would expect mp to have a small flush often enough to make it close to 7 or 8 outs

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

If all your boat outs are live there's 10.

If there is a smaller set (boat) out there its 7.

The only hand you are really bad to is Q9 thats' already boated. You could be down to four outs in that case. But this isnt that likely.

I'd use 7-8 as well.

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

fold preflop?

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

I don't like pre-flop at all. AQ doesn't want to play multi-handed. Raise it or fold it.

I'd assume I have to make a full house to win on the turn. UTG is either chopping already or has a flush.

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like pre-flop at all. AQ doesn't want to play multi-handed. Raise it or fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its AQ suited. That, and AJs are my only cold-calling hands, (agree with ed miller) and only done in the exact type of position I was in (fairly early, loose players behind me, and a raiser I don't want to isolate).

On the other hand, others have told me AQs is never a cold-call. Is it NEVER a cold-call for you?

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

I would value the hand as 8 outs, leaning heavily towards AhKh for UTG+1 and a smaller flush for MP (I think he has a boat <20% of the time), and I would call here. If MP caps then I would assume he has a boat which would still be worth a call when capped.

Taking the worst reasonable case, assuming MP has a boat and UTG+1 has nut flush leaves us with ~6 outs (7 outs to hit our full house but we would tie some of the time, and lose rarely to Q9 if a 3 hits). MP will cap turn so we would be putting in 3 BB to win 19BB + river bets. So its a close call given the worst case scenario.

I don't mind the pre-flop call. UTG+1 hasn't raised yet so getting heads up and re-raised against a likely AA, KK, or AKs is not what I want to accomplish with a 3-bet. Also, AQs plays fine multihanded. I wouldn't fold it either.

Edit: Against most players who have a wider perceived range I will re-raise pre-flop with AQs, in most games (my 10/20 games are usually not tight/aggressive). Ed Miller suggests calling with AQs in tight games, raising in Loose games, in EP.

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

[ QUOTE ]
Live 10-20 in AC. Loose game (5-6 to flop on average).

UTG+1 is an 80+ year-old, with a hearing aid, that i've never seen before. He's been at the table with me for 2 hours and not raised PF once. He's CR two turns, and took down both of those pots uncontested.

MP is a donator i've played with before. He's loose (any two suited, J2o, etc.) and passive.

My image is tight, nothing special, just a quiet guy.

UTG+1 raises, I cold-call next in with AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP calls. Two LP players call. SB folds. BB calls. 6 players for 12.5 sb.

Flop Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Check to UTG+1 who bets, I raise, MP calls, 1 LP calls, others fold, UTG+1 calls. 20.5 sb/10.25 bb.

Turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG+1 checks, I bet, MP raises, LP folds, UTG+1 3-bets.

My main question is how many outs do you value my hand as being, and what should I do here? is it close?

Any other comments appreciated as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do we have a three or four bet cap here? If 4 bets is the cap I raise. Somebody may have pair with nut flush draw. If it is a five bet cap I just call the turn. But we go to showdown.

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

Thank you all for your comments. Ship it pls, you nailed his hand - AhKh. MP had KdQd.

So, I folded the turn. The river was, of course, an A.

At first I thought the fold was awful. I'll agree it was bad, but not awful. I actually only had 2 clean outs (2 aces), and 6 outs to a chopped pot (3 nines, and 3 threes). That's like 5 clean outs right? Poker 101 says we need about 8.2-1 to call on turn for 5 clean outs. That's right about what I was getting, so probably call.

I guess the take-home message for me is to see all the boat outs when you have trips, which is basic I know, but not as easy to see as the boat outs when you have a set. But some of you guys saw too many (forget to discount all the ones I was chopping with another queen).

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

I'm going to discount your outs to 7, but you have to fold this hand PF, an old guy who hasn't raised in 2 hours raises UTG+1, AQ is usually smoked. If you are even considering playing AJ here you have to reevaluate your PF requirements.

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

It is a cold call for me if I am in late position and other people have cold called in between. This is one fof those situations where if I think I am ahead, I want to get it heads up in position. If I think I am behind, I just fold it.

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

3 bet this pf, I really don't like calling here b/c even though your hand plays well multiway, there's no guarantee others will cold call behind you. On top of that take control of the pot so you can force UTG+1 to take the pot away from you w/a better hand or ballsy bluff.

Flop: Standard, could raise the turn, either way is fine

Turn: I can't see doing anything else here but calling. You can't eliminate anyone and you don't have the best hand often enough to 4 bet. How many outs do you have? At least 7

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

preflop is perfect, AQs is way too strong to fold, but our equity isnt enough to 3 bet. The hand plays well multiway which helps make up for domination issues. The best way to achieve a multiway pot is cold calling. Id fold AQo though. On the turn, you probably have 8-9 outs but I havent accounted for the probability of a chop. A better set should be jamming the flop and lol@ 80 year old guy 3 betting AA here. I put him squarely on AKh. MP could have a lot of worse flushes or even something like QJ with Jh

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

fold preflop.

as played just call turn raise.

Re-evauluate on river.

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

I would fold preflop, what do you expect his range to be here?

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold preflop, what do you expect his range to be here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not just about his range, which I think that i'm behind its this [ QUOTE ]
Loose game (5-6 to flop on average)

[/ QUOTE ] that makes me want to call.

Re: Big pot, on turn, don\'t know how many outs I have
 

Even if villain's range is JJ+, AK, preflop is correct because of the players to act behind you. Villain would have to be raising only AA in this spot for me to fold.