step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I think this one is fairly interesting. The button is new to me but seems to be playing pretty ABC tag. He has stats of 24/16/2 or so for 400 hands. He has shown me a little game already when he sexied the turn against me in a pot where I had a pair and gutshot but folded the river UI. The BB is a reasonable 38/20/1.5 type but not particularly relevant.

We are 5 handed and I raise Ah5h UTG. Villian coldcalls from the button and BB calls. I have never seen him coldcall before but have only played a few orbits with him.

Flop: KsKd3s

I bet, villian raises, BB folds, I 3 bet, villian calls

Turn: 2c

I bet, villian calls.

River: 9c

What to do now?

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

flop actually isnt bad because he can probably fold the mid pp he cold called with pf if another spade comes figuring he beats exactly nothing so you have like 12 "outs." that's kind of assuming alot about him, but i dont think the assumption is unreasonable given your read. c/f river.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I give up on the flop because he has a pocket pair but I think now that you've gotten this far you should c/r.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I think if you are going to get out of line a turn c/r is better, presuming of course that you would take that line with a legit hand.
I don't really like getting out of line here at all since you will need help from the board (Ace or spade) to get him to fold b/c he'll just shut down and put you on a FD if the turn + river blank off, which means 88->showdown.

He could also have KQ and have played it really poorly, or of course a flush draw which you probably beat but might get bluffed by on the river.

Surf

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I was thinking pocket pairs iniatially like all 3 reponders so far but then I thought a little more. Does he have 88 here Surf?

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I think he has a 3 or the flushdraw. How could you ever make him fold a PP on the river?

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking pocket pairs iniatially like all 3 reponders so far but then I thought a little more. Does he have 88 here Surf?

[/ QUOTE ]
I was thinking 77ish for him. It's conceivable he could be cold calling with JTss/QTss etc with those numbers as well. As far as combos go you are likely beat, and he doesn't seem like the type to bluff missed spades, so I'd c/f the river

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I'd probably just call down his flop raise honestly, as played check/call > CR > check/fold > bet IMO.

-DeathDonkey

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

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I'd probably just call down his flop raise honestly, as played check/call > CR > check/fold > bet IMO.

-DeathDonkey

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This is interesting. Would you really just check call this to showdown ace high weak kicker?

As far as the river options I was thinking the exact opposite of you.

A few questions for the crowd.

1. Have I been successful in playing this exactly like I have a king?

2. Does the villian ever make a sophisticated river fold with a better hand?

3. What is the chance I get bluffed on the river if I check?

4. Although we are supposed to put him on a range, what are the most likely specific hands that villian holds.


I will tell you that before I posted the hand I had a long discussion with mikeL and he for the most part convinced me of a particular river action but I am still a little skeptical.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

Oh man he told you to c/r didn't he? I'm pretty sure that is the best play. It will go something like this in his head "sweet he must have A high" then after you c/r "wow I got pozzed" as he clicks the fold button completely demoralized by how you maximized value with your K.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh man he told you to c/r didn't he? I'm pretty sure that is the best play. It will go something like this in his head "sweet he must have A high" then after you c/r "wow I got pozzed" as he clicks the fold button completely demoralized by how you maximized value with your K.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently the spewy, insane mike has died and been reincarnated as you.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

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I was thinking pocket pairs iniatially like all 3 reponders so far but then I thought a little more. Does he have 88 here Surf?

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I was thinking 77ish for him. It's conceivable he could be cold calling with JTss/QTss etc with those numbers as well. As far as combos go you are likely beat, and he doesn't seem like the type to bluff missed spades, so I'd c/f the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Cold calls 77/88 OTB?

When i see his PF I wonder if he has been iso-3betting me but getting CC'd in the blinds too much (which no note of so, ignore). Then i say "did he have a hand he couldn't 3-bet, should have folded, so called" or "did he have a hand he should always 3-bet, but cc'd for deception"

So i usually think like suited connectors or KK.

That sound crazy? I think it makes more sense than 88. I haven't been cold called OTB w/88 by a guy like this since like 2002.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

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I was thinking pocket pairs iniatially like all 3 reponders so far but then I thought a little more. Does he have 88 here Surf?

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I was thinking 77ish for him. It's conceivable he could be cold calling with JTss/QTss etc with those numbers as well. As far as combos go you are likely beat, and he doesn't seem like the type to bluff missed spades, so I'd c/f the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Cold calls 77/88 OTB?

When i see his PF I wonder if he has been iso-3betting me but getting CC'd in the blinds too much (which no note of so, ignore). Then i say "did he have a hand he couldn't 3-bet, should have folded, so called" or "did he have a hand he should always 3-bet, but cc'd for deception"

So i usually think like suited connectors or KK.

That sound crazy? I think it makes more sense than 88. I haven't been cold called OTB w/88 by a guy like this since like 2002.

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You're right actually, this makes alot of sense. I don't think he has a PP hardly ever, unless he's been playing NL lately or something.

Surf

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Oh man he told you to c/r didn't he? I'm pretty sure that is the best play. It will go something like this in his head "sweet he must have A high" then after you c/r "wow I got pozzed" as he clicks the fold button completely demoralized by how you maximized value with your K.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently the spewy, insane mike has died and been reincarnated as you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I lol'd.

Mike said c-c? I guess FDs that should have 3bet or folded pre and called for whatever reason make more sense than anything else?

Surf

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I think the flop 3bet is bad, he's never folding a pocket pair. He knows that you are gonna think he is FOS a lot so he probably expects you to 3bet light. I would call the flop raise, call a nonspade turn and nonspade river.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

in my games (10/20 - 15/30) they always seem to have kjo/qjo when they coldcall me there. dunno if that's cuz im an overly loose mega-implied odds doling fish though...

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I really hate a river check raise. If he does fold and your getting all excited because you outplayed him you are kidding yourself , your hand was good. Only hands I see him bet/folding are busted draws in which case check calling or betting work the same.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I also don't see this guy having a hand like 55-88 very often here. That would really be uncharacterstic for a tag with these stats to just cold call the button with those hands.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

Ok- not sure how this guy thinks but given the strength your showing if I was villian I would be really surprised to see you try and check raise me here on the river. Therefore, I would find your line fishy and prob have to call you on river with any hands I was value betting.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

On this board its pretty easy, we pick up the gutshot on the turn so we're never folding before river, and then we get there and we beat like every XY of spades.

I'd like to amend and now say I think check/fold is a bit better than check/raise pretty much because of what dangerfish said.

I hope Mike L. said check/fold, it makes decent sense and makes HOWMANY the spew look silly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

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On this board its pretty easy, we pick up the gutshot on the turn so we're never folding before river, and then we get there and we beat like every XY of spades.

I'd like to amend and now say I think check/fold is a bit better than check/raise pretty much because of what dangerfish said.

I hope Mike L. said check/fold, it makes decent sense and makes HOWMANY the spew look silly [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

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We don't beat every one though. We are behind A6-A8s, maybe AT-Js if they would cc preflop. A5s will fold his chop.

One more barrel and all those hands go in the muck right?

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

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Oh man he told you to c/r didn't he? I'm pretty sure that is the best play. It will go something like this in his head "sweet he must have A high" then after you c/r "wow I got pozzed" as he clicks the fold button completely demoralized by how you maximized value with your K.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently the spewy, insane mike has died and been reincarnated as you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I lol'd.

Mike said c-c? I guess FDs that should have 3bet or folded pre and called for whatever reason make more sense than anything else?

Surf

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c/c is almost as bad as betting here and betting is the worst option of them all

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

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c/c is almost as bad as betting here and betting is the worst option of them all

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Why?

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I feel really retarded arguing about a line for a hand that I would have folded preflop and then again on the flop, but betting never folds a better hand and check/calling is dumb because he will like never have a hand that we beat. If he has a flush draw then I think he played it really bad because I think the line we have taken is one that he should raise turn with flush draw.

My opinion might be skewed because I am sure that the villain has 66 exactly though.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

Last thing I wanna say about this hand and how it relates to bluffing in sh lhe. First off this whole hand is tough because your repping such a narrow range ie the nuts.

I would be happy to achieve the following in regards to bluffing and value betting. Win more than your fair share of unclaimed pots and no hand vs no hand. Use check raises and such to extract extra value rather than bluff. Do not leave anything on the table with regards to value betting this includes razor thin value bets even at the cost of occasionally value betting opponent's hand. Do this in order to achieve first part. There is a very important relationship between the 2. Ok, thats it.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

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I feel really retarded arguing about a line for a hand that I would have folded preflop and then again on the flop, but betting never folds a better hand and check/calling is dumb because he will like never have a hand that we beat. If he has a flush draw then I think he played it really bad because I think the line we have taken is one that he should raise turn with flush draw.

My opinion might be skewed because I am sure that the villain has 66 exactly though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just reread this and I still don't get it. Funny to me that you don't want to argue here but post a hand where the whole thing is about a misclick. Anyway, arguing is fun. That's what we do here.

I find it hard to believe you fold A5s from the hijack (UTG 5 handed). I have it on the borderline but if the game conditions are right I will jack it up routinely. How else are we gonna get to be LAGTAG instead of nits? As far as him having exactly 66, I think that is pretty crazy. I think this guy 3 bets any pairs he wants to play against me. Your read that he never folds a pair, and he had 66 one has to be wrong since he did indeed fold.

Now for the turn. Why would you want to raise a flushdraw on the turn if you were him. Getting 3 bet with less than 20% equity would be a pretty huge mistake.

Results and thoughts
 

So, I did bet this river and he folded so we don't really get to know what he had. Mike argued and for the most part convinced me that check/fold is the best. I think it is very close still though. His point is that the villian will never fold a pair and that when I basically pin down the bet/raise button the entire hand it is an absurd spot for him to bluff.

My argument is that this is the internet. People do retarded stuff all the time. I also think his hand range is pretty narrow at this point to QsTs, JsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s. Of course there are others including some pocket pairs and some random stuff including slowplayed monsters. If I check this river and he checks with a bigger ace I will have made an absolutley enormous pot sized mistake.

I also disagree to some degree that he never folds a pair. I think it is interesting how this forum constantly beats down the "bad TAG" who plays 24/15 or whatever and how they are exploitable for making folds. We see thread after thread filled with that type of nonsense. Then, when I try to exploit that exact weakness we get a bunch of responses saying he never folds a pair. Seems like we have found a little paradox. Don't any of you ever take a lot of heat and then get to the river and then decide to lay down your marginal holding? I do and I think you should to.

The final argument against check/folding is the meatgame consequence. I don't want people thinking that they can get a free showdown or steal pots from me on the river. Even if he calls me and makes a note that says "whackjob, bet/3bet flop and 3 barreled with air" I will get some of this bet back later on. If he folds and doesn't get to see my hand that is fine too.

Re: Results and thoughts
 

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Don't any of you ever take a lot of heat and then get to the river and then decide to lay down your marginal holding? I do and I think you should to.

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Usually not when I'm in position though. There's a big difference being OOP and c/f'ing the river since you've now given the other guy a shot and checking back the river and giving up.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

but how often would a guy with those stats have a pocket pair?

Re: Results and thoughts
 

"I also disagree to some degree that he never folds a pair."

i talked at length about this with howmany and you guys were both making the mistake of thinking this guy just because he's not terrible will think on level 2 and 3 like you do and fold 66 or 55 (the only pairs he could have i think) after calling the turn. in my experience it takes a very skilled player to make that sophisticated a play (call the turn, fold the river) with a pp. not likely, and nowhere likely enough given the size of the pot. overestimating metahand is also a matter of giving your opponents too much credit. this is 10-20 dont get crazy overthinking it.

it's not very close. he has some sort of nonsense flush draw hands like 97s, something he couldnt reraise but felt inclined to play because you raise a lot and it's 5 handed and he has the button. (keep your read of their thoughts simple). either he paired the river card, or even the turn or flop or he didnt. he will sometimes check that pair on the river and when he bets you are toast way more often than your A high is good. people dont tend to bluff the river when their opponent pounded the pot oop every chance they got. so youre not checking the river to induce a bluff, youre checking to fold because it looks like youre checking to call.

this hand is pretty simple. the flop play is interesting but should be the sort of play in the arsenal of any decent player. button's most likely hand is a draw so making him pay to draw is critical.

probably wont look back here but those are most of my thoughts.

Re: Results and thoughts
 

i personally like calling the flop and c/r the turn a lot more as a bluff here. This turn probably isn't a good turn to do it, but you rep a K or a big pp. Your flop 3 bet reps a flush draw and makes you want to now c/c this river.

That said, i think just folding to the flop raise is fine.