Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

First play...

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns -4 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

And another...

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets +3 (-110)
Risking 1.1u to win 1u

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

I'm thinking about the Jets here too.

I also think the Oak line being double digits is WAY off and am on that for two units already.

- C -

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

Oakland +10 @ San Diego (2.2u to win 2u)
Miami @ Cleveland -4 (1.1u to win 1u)
Minnesota @ Chicago -4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)

also I am leaning towards Houston, and New Orleans but I think both will hit 7. Just a question, what has you guys on the Jets? I am not criticizing, just looking for some insight.

-Roman

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

Stl +10? Ravens haven't had a tough schedule and they're still only rockin' 19 ppg against and 17 ppg for.

I want to jump on it, but I guess people are just thinking stl will only get one score since they are averaging 14 ppg and the ravens D is obv one of the best?

Any thoughts?

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

I like Minn, NYJ, and Oak

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
And another...

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets +3 (-110)
Risking 1.1u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain this one? I'm actually looking to bet the other side. Talk me out of it?

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stl +10? Ravens haven't had a tough schedule and they're still only rockin' 19 ppg against and 17 ppg for.

I want to jump on it, but I guess people are just thinking stl will only get one score since they are averaging 14 ppg and the ravens D is obv one of the best?

Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a huge Ravens fan and jumped on StL immediately when the line opened. Ravens are 0-5 ATS and have done nothing to justify being a double digit fav over anyone this season.

I expect them to win, but I also expect the score to be close.

- C -

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And another...

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets +3 (-110)
Risking 1.1u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain this one? I'm actually looking to bet the other side. Talk me out of it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the same thing haha

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

Perhaps the fact that you are betting on a 1-3 team giving up points on the road?
That said, I'd take the Eagles here too if I really had to bet on this game. I wouldn't go out of my way to do it, though.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps the fact that you are betting on a 1-3 team giving up points on the road?
That said, I'd take the Eagles here too if I really had to bet on this game. I wouldn't go out of my way to do it, though.

[/ QUOTE ]


i think this says alot about what oddsmakes think of the jets

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

I am a Jets fan and would take Philly -3 in a heartbeat, especially with Westbrook already practicing this week

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stl +10? Ravens haven't had a tough schedule and they're still only rockin' 19 ppg against and 17 ppg for.

I want to jump on it, but I guess people are just thinking stl will only get one score since they are averaging 14 ppg and the ravens D is obv one of the best?

Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a huge Ravens fan and jumped on StL immediately when the line opened. Ravens are 0-5 ATS and have done nothing to justify being a double digit fav over anyone this season.

I expect them to win, but I also expect the score to be close.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

There's anyone and then there's the Rams on the road. Much like the Colts home games, you have to take on an extra 3 pts to what you think the line should be because they're just that good/terrible.
The Ravens will have 100 yards of offense at the half and a 14pt lead, and Gus Forrotte will be dropping back to pass on 3rd&12 in the 3rd Qtr inside his 10yd line...just remember that.

Guess the Lines

Right now I'm leaning:
Chiefs +3
Texans +6.5
Raiders +10
Seahawks -6.5
Packers -3

I'm pretty sure the road team has a better record straight up the last 15 years in that Chargers-Raiders series. The Chargers actually benefitted from some head-scratching officiating to beat them at home last year. I never like Seattle, but I think the Hawks/Bolts lines are flip-flopped.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Stl +10? Ravens haven't had a tough schedule and they're still only rockin' 19 ppg against and 17 ppg for.

I want to jump on it, but I guess people are just thinking stl will only get one score since they are averaging 14 ppg and the ravens D is obv one of the best?

Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a huge Ravens fan and jumped on StL immediately when the line opened. Ravens are 0-5 ATS and have done nothing to justify being a double digit fav over anyone this season.

I expect them to win, but I also expect the score to be close.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

There's anyone and then there's the Rams on the road. Much like the Colts home games, you have to take on an extra 3 pts to what you think the line should be because they're just that good/terrible.
The Ravens will have 100 yards of offense at the half and a 14pt lead, and Gus Forrotte will be dropping back to pass on 3rd&12 in the 3rd Qtr inside his 10yd line...just remember that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's fine to say that, but it's another thing to actually wind up doing it. The Ravens were big favs against the Jets and Cards too, and had big leads in both games in the 4th Q.

The Ravens flat out are not that good a team right now. They're 3-2 against teams that are a combined 6-13 in games outside of Ravens games. They've got a ton of injuries with guys who either won't start or will be ailing if they do (McNair, Ogden, Terry, Flynn, Heap, Wilcox, Pryce, Rolle). And of course as mentioned, they're 0-5 ATS so far.

No matter how bad the Rams are, the Ravens don't deserve to be 10 pt favs over anyone. I really hope they do crush them. But I've been hoping that for five games, and until they can prove that they can solidly beat a team, I'm taking anyone getting a double digit spread vs. them, cause flat out it's too many points.

- C -

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

I agree with pak. The Ravens offense is really, really, I mean really bad. Looks like a 17-13 game to me.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
First play...

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns -4 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

[/ QUOTE ]

I love this bet. I expect this to be a very high scoring game. 35-24, Browns is my prediction.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

paper champ, what is your record this year?

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
paper champ, what is your record this year?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I usually post it. I updated it in last week's thread and forgot to post it here.

YTD

8-11-1
-7.3u

Was down over 12 units but I'm trying to mount a comeback.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

No one likes Cincy at Arrowhead or San Diego at home?

I'm impressed that you have the balls to bet the spreads as I only use teases now, but I have a question.
If you like the Jets +3 at home(I like Eagles, but grew up there so maybe Im biased on this one) why not bet the ML?
Isnt there more value in the ML for a home dog when the line is not 3.5 or greater?

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And another...

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets +3 (-110)
Risking 1.1u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain this one? I'm actually looking to bet the other side. Talk me out of it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I love taking a mediocre AFC dog at home against an equally mediocre NFC team. I have the Jets as being slightly underrated which also explains my play last week.

I'm also fading the public. Both teams are off to a bad start. Public perception is that while Philly is likely to bounce back at some point, the Jets are just a horrible team and will remain that way. Philly would probably be a BSP pick this week if it wasn't for their terrible game on Sunday night football last week.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
No one likes Cincy at Arrowhead or San Diego at home?

I'm impressed that you have the balls to bet the spreads as I only use teases now, but I have a question.
If you like the Jets +3 at home(I like Eagles, but grew up there so maybe Im biased on this one) why not bet the ML?
Isnt there more value in the ML for a home dog when the line is 3.5 or greater?

[/ QUOTE ]

It really depends on what the ML is. I haven't bet many ML's in football since Pinny left because I can usually get a better line at Skybook with my free half point.

Also, the market disagrees with my NYJ pick, I don't like that.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

have you taken into factor that andy read is 8-0 comming off the bye week... and also 3-0 comming off a bye in the playoffs... that makes him 11-0.. i would recommend not touching this game if you are going toward the jets

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
No one likes Cincy at Arrowhead or San Diego at home?

[/ QUOTE ]

No and no. I'm on KC +3 for 1u and Oak +10.5 for 2u. Cinci is really bad and getting love for no reason than everyone assumes their offense is awesome and KC's whole team is horrible. SD's had one good game against Denver who's clearly not that tough a team and otherwise SD has looked pretty bad overall, and Oak is not that bad of a team. A double digit spread is WAY too high and IMO an overreaction to last week's game. SD is talented but I figured this spread to be around 7.5 or 8, not 10.5.

- C --

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
have you taken into factor that andy read is 8-0 comming off the bye week... and also 3-0 comming off a bye in the playoffs... that makes him 11-0.. i would recommend not touching this game if you are going toward the jets

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this holds only slightly more weight with me than reciting those stats and then saying "so they're due for a loss".

'07 Eagles <> past Eagles
That's something to take into account, but it's not that big a factor IMO.

- C -

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
have you taken into factor that andy read is 8-0 comming off the bye week... and also 3-0 comming off a bye in the playoffs... that makes him 11-0.. i would recommend not touching this game if you are going toward the jets

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone should tell the Jets before they show up and try and win.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm also fading the public. Both teams are off to a bad start. Public perception is that while Philly is likely to bounce back at some point, the Jets are just a horrible team and will remain that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the public IS right. What it means linewise, I'm not good enough to know, but I'd lean Eagles.

The Jets D is bad enough that I think the Eagles can put up enough points to cover.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
have you taken into factor that andy read is 8-0 comming off the bye week... and also 3-0 comming off a bye in the playoffs... that makes him 11-0.. i would recommend not touching this game if you are going toward the jets

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I would never take that into factor since those statistics are completely worthless.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I'm also fading the public. Both teams are off to a bad start. Public perception is that while Philly is likely to bounce back at some point, the Jets are just a horrible team and will remain that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the public IS right. What it means linewise, I'm not good enough to know, but I'd lean Eagles.

The Jets D is bad enough that I think the Eagles can put up enough points to cover.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many possibilities remain including that they are both bad teams and that the Eagles are getting unmerited credit for previous seasons performances. Also, its possible the Jets have underperformed. Public perception is often wrong.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm also fading the public. Both teams are off to a bad start. Public perception is that while Philly is likely to bounce back at some point, the Jets are just a horrible team and will remain that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the public IS right. What it means linewise, I'm not good enough to know, but I'd lean Eagles.

The Jets D is bad enough that I think the Eagles can put up enough points to cover.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many possibilities remain including that they are both bad teams and that the Eagles are getting unmerited credit for previous seasons performances. Also, its possible the Jets have underperformed. Public perception is often wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say that the public was right because they're usually right. I said the public was right because they most likely are, this time. DVOA has Philly at 11th and the Jets at 30th. AFAIK, this is completely independent of prior year performance.

Philly really has one game against a weak defense. The Giants, Skins and Packers all have decent defenses. The one game the Eagles had against a weak defense, they lit them up.

The Jets just stink. It's less likely that they're underperforming this year, and more likely that they overperformed last year. I definitely think the Eagles are the better team. 6 points on a neutral field better? That I'm not positive about, but if forced to pick, I'd pick the Eagles.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

I will definitely be looking to grab the under on Dallas/NE sometime on Sunday. I think there is good value on the under already but the line is probably going to keep climbing.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
And another...

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets +3 (-110)
Risking 1.1u to win 1u

[/ QUOTE ]

i am an eagles fan but they will def cover here vs the jets. i bet against them vs the giants because historically the eagles suck before the bye AND they had 4 probowlers out. as bad as they are before the bye they are just as good after it. they will win by 2 TDs atleast here.

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First play...

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns -4 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

[/ QUOTE ]

I love this bet. I expect this to be a very high scoring game. 35-24, Browns is my prediction.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like the game of the week to bet the over.
What is the over/under on this game right now?

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

Under/Over 14 Oct 07 19:00 CET
Total Under Over
MIA Dolphins v CLE Browns
45 -106 -114

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

Added pick...

New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys U53 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

Sticking with my previous analysis and adding on the Jets even though the market obviously disagrees...

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets +3.5 (-105)
Risking 1.05u to win 1u

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
Added pick...

New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys U53 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

[/ QUOTE ]

with you on this one. it might be my favorite pick of the week

Re: Paperchamp\'s NFL Week 6
 

1-2 for a -2.35u weekend

New YTD

9-13-1
-9.65u