50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Villian is 36.89/9.56/1.39 postflop agg. over 450 hands

So let's see exactly who and how many people go which way. I wonder how much diverse the poll will be.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($49.75)
SB ($49.60)
BB ($54.85)
Hero ($48.75)
MP ($21.45)
CO ($21.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $5.5</font>, Hero calls $3.50.

Flop: ($11.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $10.5</font>, Hero calls $10.50.

Turn: ($32.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $38.85 (All-In)</font>, Hero???

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

I 4 Bet or fold pf, and I almost never fold pf, esp getting reraised from a blind vs my steal raise.

As played, I fold the turn.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Dear God, fold that as fast as you can. If you call you're praying for a chop.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

I fold and I'm a station.

This could be an easy call with a read or two, but it's definitely a fold in a vacuum.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
I 4 Bet or fold pf, and I almost never fold pf, esp getting reraised from a blind vs my steal raise.

As played, I fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like to call pre-flop in position a decent amount.



BTW I'm like 99% sure I made the right move. Kinda curious how this comes out though.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

836 games 0.047 secs 17,787 games/sec

Board: Ks Qc 2h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.694% 29.19% 16.51% 244 138.00 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 54.306% 37.80% 16.51% 316 138.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

pokerstove says call

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

meh, maybet your ahead of a 1 pair hand that just picked up a draw, but I really don't see what hand you beat here.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

do you think villan is capable of making turn bet w/ JJ?

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
meh, maybet your ahead of a 1 pair hand that just picked up a draw, but I really don't see what hand you beat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I hate this spot.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
meh, maybet your ahead of a 1 pair hand that just picked up a draw, but I really don't see what hand you beat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I hate this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hate foul decks too

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

I call. He could have AQ that just picked up a GSSD draw, JJ that just picked up an OESD, AK, etc.

If situations were reversed and you 3bet, he c/c and pushed the Turn then I would fold but as it is he has committed himself to the hand with what could be a pretty standard line for some hands that you beat. The Turn could be a bit of a desperation push with outs.

BTW, don't mind a fold but I think with the above and getting 2:1 with between 3 &amp; 9 outs (if needed) I call.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

I can see where a call looks good pf and I would tend to flat it in-game too. Honestly though I can't see AQ being in villain's range at all and you are going to have trouble extracting postflop when you make a pair and are ahead. Either it's going to go down like this and you're almost always chopping at best or villain c/c's one bet on A/K hi board and folds to another.

If you have some further read beyond pf stats, OK. But based on that I would say his range pf is QQ+/AK, he is never folding an overpair or top pair, and he's not stacking off QQ/KK on a A hi flop, maybe QQ on a K hi flop.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[censored] it yo, I call.
I think him betting turn like this was the reason we didn't raise flop.

EDIT: Meh, just saw the low aggro factor.
[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
I still probably call, cuz I can't fold AK.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Basically, if you put JJ into his range, it's a call. If not, it's a fold. QQ+/AK and our equity falls short. If it's JJ+/AK... we're in the sweet spot.

This is the kinda place that keeps me up nights.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

less then 10% PFR and he reraised HERO preflop. Smells like QQ+ and AK. So looks like we're behind too often to make it a call.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Well we gota be good ~33% of the time which we are if we include some AQ and JJ combos in villians range. This probably still only makes it a marginal call at best.But if you think villian plays those hands like this then it is a call. But Villian only has 1.39AF which is pretty passive so i def think his range includes less AQ/JJ hands so Id fold.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Call sooo fast. Your hand is seriously under repped and that ten of clubs potentially provided villain with decent draw with which to semibluff. Those stats are also fairly meaningless in regards to villains 3 betting tendencies especially if you have been active at the table.

edit: Are you guys wanting to fold this if the turn is a two and he shoves.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call sooo fast. Your hand is seriously under repped and that ten of clubs potentially provided villain with decent draw with which to semibluff. Those stats are also fairly meaningless in regards to villains 3 betting tendencies especially if you have been active at the table.

edit: Are you guys wanting to fold this if the turn is a two and he shoves.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the turn was a 2 than IMO this is an easier fold than as is.


I folded. Villian is like never doing this with AQ IMO. And almost never JJ IMO.



[ QUOTE ]
I can see where a call looks good pf and I would tend to flat it in-game too. Honestly though I can't see AQ being in villain's range at all and you are going to have trouble extracting postflop when you make a pair and are ahead. Either it's going to go down like this and you're almost always chopping at best or villain c/c's one bet on A/K hi board and folds to another.

If you have some further read beyond pf stats, OK. But based on that I would say his range pf is QQ+/AK, he is never folding an overpair or top pair, and he's not stacking off QQ/KK on a A hi flop, maybe QQ on a K hi flop.

[/ QUOTE ]


So are you recommending folding pre-flop here vs. his 3bet? OOP I'd generally 4bet. In position sometimes I just call. In position I can extract 2 bets a lot of the time. Calling also just balances out as a sometimes I just call with AA/KK in position to a 3bet.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Yes, he plays 37% of his hands but he only raises about 10% which puts him on roughly pairs 66+, AK, AQ, suited aces, KQs, QJs. Your only a 55/45 favorite preflop against his raising range, and the flop fits nicely into that range for a set, two pair, or AA. He might even have AK himself, but his turn bet indicates he's not scared of much. I would probably find a reason to fold and trap this guy later on in the session.

AC

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

I could be wrong here. Poker Stove said you're a 3:1 favorite on the flop and turn against villain's range. Maybe a call is in order? IDK...I just don't fell comfortable calling the turn.

Board: Ks 2h Qc Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.057% 68.72% 05.33% 2661 206.50 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 25.943% 20.61% 05.33% 798 206.50 { 66+, A2s+, KQs, QJs, AQo+ }

AC

Edit: Just saw the low AF percentage too...I def think this is a fold.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

I'd put him on 2 pair about 90% of the time so fold

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

836 games 0.047 secs 17,787 games/sec

Board: Ks Qc 2h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.694% 29.19% 16.51% 244 138.00 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 54.306% 37.80% 16.51% 316 138.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

pokerstove says call

[/ QUOTE ]

No look at how many ties there are. We are not 45/55 to win the hand because the majority of the times we win we actually split it.

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong here. Poker Stove said you're a 3:1 favorite on the flop and turn against villain's range. Maybe a call is in order? IDK...I just don't fell comfortable calling the turn.

Board: Ks 2h Qc Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.057% 68.72% 05.33% 2661 206.50 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 25.943% 20.61% 05.33% 798 206.50 { 66+, A2s+, KQs, QJs, AQo+ }

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain has 3-bet us preflop. He might raise preflop with that range but he isn't 3 betting with those hands. Come on no way is he playing 66 like this!

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

836 games 0.047 secs 17,787 games/sec

Board: Ks Qc 2h Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.694% 29.19% 16.51% 244 138.00 { AdKc }
Hand 1: 54.306% 37.80% 16.51% 316 138.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

pokerstove says call

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted fold but after thinking about it, its a clear call. I would discount JJ at least 50% in the above range but I would eliminate KK/QQ altogether. This guy is almost never playing a high set that fast here on a dry board.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Very interesting thread.

A couple of more thoughts. Firstly, a lot of people are discounting the likelihood of the hands that push their decision one particular way. You can't do that - you need to look at both sides. So, it's not likely that he has AQ or JJ which is fair enough but as Jouster said, why would he play KK or QQ like this when, as this thread shows, it will get AK to fold?

Secondly, if he seldom plays AQ or JJ like this then how does he play them? I think JJ is more likely so I'll look at that. He re-raises PF - a 10 PFR would often do that. He fires the standard continuation bet. Then on the turn he picks up an OESD. Does he check fold? He knows you bet if he checks. If I'm him I think I have to push because I have outs and need to maximise my last bit of FE. Maybe AK or AQ will fold.

With AQ it's harder - I can see a check fold on the Turn.

The other thing is that it turns out that if we are villain, the correct play is to shove the Turn because Hero folds his AK 84% of the time.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Hasn't the hand been misplayed?
Why aren't we raising on flop?
And for that matter, why are we not re-raising preflop?

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call sooo fast. Your hand is seriously under repped and that ten of clubs potentially provided villain with decent draw with which to semibluff. Those stats are also fairly meaningless in regards to villains 3 betting tendencies especially if you have been active at the table.

edit: Are you guys wanting to fold this if the turn is a two and he shoves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling that fast? That implies that you do not think about this situation too much which seems right given villains stats/action and range.

Calling 3bets PF with AK = ughh

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

You should never be RR Ak 100% of the time.
the majority yes, but as lego said, he has position. its good to mix up your play.
As played i would call the flop and fold the turn. i Cant see him double barreling JJ on this sort of flop when its obvisous you have some kind of a hand.
I think at best you are splitting this hand.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hasn't the hand been misplayed?
Why aren't we raising on flop?
And for that matter, why are we not re-raising preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling 3bets in position with AK is fine. You can still extract money in position on an A or K high flop. It disguises the times you just call pre-flop 3bets with AA,KK, or QQ with position which is also good to do sometimes. (Plus in this particular situation AK is likely not too far ahead of his 3bet range....if it even is actually.) I think I mght actually rather fold than 4bet here. And I barely barely barely ever fold AK pre-flop especially versus only one other opponent....could probably count the # of times I folded pre-flop vs. one opponent on 1 hand perhaps with fingers left over.


Raising the flop would IMO be very bad. Name one hand worse than AK that calls a raise on the flop. Answer: There aren't any. Name hands better than AK that fold to a raise on the flop. Answer: There aren't any.


Also this is where the extracting on an A or K high board after calling a pre-flop 3bet comes into play. Even on a safe looking board like Kc9d3s I'm not going to raise villian's bet there. Why? Answer: Why do I want to try to make QQ,JJ fold? I'd just call flop bet. If he pushes turn I probably call on that board precisely because QQ,JJ don't beat me unlike the actual hand were QQ does beat me. However, usually villian will then check turn. I then check behind. Now a lot of times villian will bet river and I shove if there's anything left. If villian checks river I make like 55%-65% bet and extract more value.


The only time I might raise a flop bet is on an extremely drawy board although even raising there in this situation is very unlikely because the way this hand is setup with my raising UTG, being reraised by BB I doubt draws would be much of his range if at all and the only real way I can think of it is if he's got AKs or maybe AQs or if the board comes out monotone or reall connected so one card in the hole could make a straight draw. So anyway here I probably just call bet on most drawy flops as well.



In the example hand the only reason it might be at all close to a call is because the T on the turn just gave JJ an open ended straight draw. (If turn were a 2 I've come to believe this a fairly trivial fold...that Q really is troublesome.) However, for villian to shove turn with a J IMO......1.) He has to be a good player who also thinks that I'm a good player and that I can fold at least AK here. 2.) He has to be a pretty bad player who is aggro and either bets a ton and/or shoves draws. IMO most players at this level would not shove JJ here unless it fits into category one. However, I do believe most would shove AK.




BTW villian showed his cards after I folded.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

show in white plz.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

I have real problems 4-betting AK.

Im guessing the thinking goes something like:

"They normally fold when we 4-bet AK, and even when they do shove our Equity vs any hand that isnt AA is ok"

I still seem to stack of alot with this hand. Maybe im running bad.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

push flop.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
show in white plz.

[/ QUOTE ]

His Hand (though obviously don't be results oriented over this sample size of 1 hand):

<font color="white"> AA....I don't remember the suits. </font>

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Yeah...you're right. That 3-bet preflop range is probably much tighter like QQ+,AK. I'm sure not 3-bet reraising with 66 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

AC

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
push flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess you didn't read all my replies

Anyway don't push flop.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

Before looking at the white results, I say fold this. Obviously villain knows you hit the flop; and he might also know you hit it hard, and he's going to put a big bet in on the turn with the hopes of you calling it. I'd definitely give him credit for a big hand and fold it, especially with a low AF like that. Villain's big bet on the turn could also be for protection since the turn could give you outs to outdraw him.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

instand fold...but I reraise pf hard and shove that flop.

Re: 50NL; AK --> 3bet pot --> flop TPTK ->>Fold??
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have real problems 4-betting AK.

Im guessing the thinking goes something like:

"They normally fold when we 4-bet AK, and even when they do shove our Equity vs any hand that isnt AA is ok"

I still seem to stack of alot with this hand. Maybe im running bad.

[/ QUOTE ]
Against someone who who 3-bets wider than KK+, 4-betting with AK should be pretty standard. It gets better hands to fold and with most hands you don't mind if they push. You are ahead, flipping with great pot odds or a slightly worse than 2:1 dog with great pot odds (KK). The only hand you really don't want to see is AA. It seems that most people are more comfortable to 4-bet with QQ but you will be up against KK+ more often than you will with AK.

The other main point is that it makes it easier for you to get action when you 4-bet your big hands. No-one is folding JJ to your 4-bet with AA ever again.

The problem for most people with this strategy is they remember getting stacked when they run into AA but unless you are 4-betting supernits then you are probably forgetting the times that they folded what was probably a better hand or when you were flipping in a very profitable situation.

I don't hate calling in position with AK but I think 4-betting should be the default line.