2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

look at chip stacks and tell me you shoving or folding with a player in between and a lot of $$$$$ in the pot?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t21650)
SB (t28034)
BB (t41710)
UTG (t53450)
Hero (t70304)
MP2 (t112721)
CO (t30690)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t6000</font>, MP2 calls t6000, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t30490</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

Yea i like the shove to isolate, you have plenty to move the caller out of the pot.

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

reads on cutoff? and aren't there antes? buyin?

assuming ante of 200 (regular stars ante for that level in a 1500) I think it's good but close depending on how tight CO is. Granted, it's an obvious enough squeeze move for him, but if he's only doing it with 99+, AQ+ then it's very close even with antes (you need 1.77-1 and, assuming antes you're getting 1.8-1)

so if you think he might do it with lower pairs, some other stuff like KJs+ and occasionally with air (because that wouldn't be such a bad move depending how he reads you), then it becomes a call

i can't say i would always call here. 4/180 yes.

so hamnegger - what's your range for CO based on reads etc
everyone else - what do you typically push with here if you're CO?

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

i think its never a lower pair or air. its about 60% overs 40% bigger pair

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

If I think he might possibly have even ever heard the word squeeze before I'd shove to isolate.

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

Given this pot, I think you need to iso shove UNLESS the RR has been playing really tight. Then, considering the caller in between and the small chance he might have a monster, you may find a fold. But, I think you have to push this.

Barry

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think its never a lower pair or air. its about 60% overs 40% bigger pair

[/ QUOTE ]

for better or worse it's air some % of the time if it's me in CO.

what do you shove from CO here?

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

[ QUOTE ]
i think its never a lower pair or air. its about 60% overs 40% bigger pair

[/ QUOTE ]

if that's your range (translates to something like 99+, AJs+, KQs+) then you need 1.7-1 and you're getting 1.8-1 assuming antes

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

Come on fellas. Someone stop multi-tabling for a minute and do the math. Run some ranges. I know someone can do it.

Sherman

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

to answer my own question, my range if I'm CO is probably 88+, AQ+: definitely push. KQs, some suited connectors: sometimes push. with reads definitely air occasionally. and I would be quite averse to shove AT/AJ, maybe not correctly?

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Come on fellas. Someone stop multi-tabling for a minute and do the math. Run some ranges. I know someone can do it.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]
i did?

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Come on fellas. Someone stop multi-tabling for a minute and do the math. Run some ranges. I know someone can do it.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]
i did?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is the pokerstove output? Did you include MP in your equation? How often does he call our shove and with what hands. That has to be included.

Sherman

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Come on fellas. Someone stop multi-tabling for a minute and do the math. Run some ranges. I know someone can do it.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]
i did?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is the pokerstove output? Did you include MP in your equation? How often does he call our shove and with what hands. That has to be included.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]

fair enough. i did stove twice and quoted the results. output pasted this time.

I did also mean to mention that I'm not hugely concerned with the big stack calling so these numbers were done under that assumption. I'm not so sure how to factor him into a stove calculation, given that even though he could flat call pre with very strong hands, much/some of the time he'll be re-raising pre.

anyway:

vs 99+, AQ+

---

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,794,846 games 1.162 secs 3,265,788 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.377% 64.17% 00.20% 2435281 7736.50 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 35.623% 35.42% 00.20% 1344092 7736.50 { 88 }


---

you need 1.77-1 and, assuming antes you're getting 1.8-1

OR

vs. 99+, AJs, KQs (60% overs, 40% bigger pairs)

---

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,605,960 games 2.253 secs 2,488,220 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.667% 62.46% 00.21% 3501418 11681.50 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 37.333% 37.12% 00.21% 2081179 11681.50 { 88 }

---

you need 1.7-1 and you're getting 1.8-1 assuming antes

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

Am I reading this wrong? Because it looks to me like we have better than (equity) 2:1 on both. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

I'll start with the 99+,AQ+ range for CO.

MP2 calling is always a bad thing for you.
I'd say he'll call with QQ+, AKs. You're 25% against that range.

When he calls, the side pot is 39,614 each:
39,614*(0.25) - 39,614*(0.75) = -19.6k

The main pot is: 71,380. Against QQ+,AKs and 99+,AQs+,AQo+ you're 20% to win.
71,380*(0.20) - 24,490*(0.80) = -5.3k

So when he calls, you're losing 25k on average.

If his initial call was pretty wide, like top 15% of hands, then he called initially with about 200 hands.
QQ+,AKs = 22 hands, or about 10% of that 15%.

So 10% of the time you lose 25k, or -2.5k on average.

You need to make that up the other 90% of the time. That means you need to win 25k*(0.1) / (0.9) = 2.8k on average when heads up.
To win 2.8k, you need: 2.8k = 46,890*wp - 24,490*(1-wp). (46,890+24,490)*wp = 24,490 + 2,800 = 38.2% to win the heads up pots.
You're 35.6% against 99+,AQ+. You'd be 39.5% if his range was 77+,AQs+,AQo+.

I would say that's reasonable. Basically it means he just has to be a little light once in a while.
If MP2 is much tighter, it gets ugly, because he's calling a bigger fraction of the time, and that -25k is a bitch to offset.

You can assume MP2 would not always flat call QQ+,AKs, so that would discount the chance he has those hands above. That would obviously help you. Overall, the numbers show it is very close, and your reads on how tight these two players are would be pretty important. Without that, I'd rather err towards aggression. Having a huge stack heading into the final table about 35% of the time is not bad at all. And when you lose you'll have 40k left at 2k blinds most of the time, which isn't horrible either.

The math to show shoving is better than calling is a bit trickier, and I'm not sure how to do it and have it actually mean anything. Reshoving looks really strong though, so MP2 will fold almost everything. Anything he'd be borderline on calling is really bad for you, like 99-JJ, AKo, so shoving seems better.

-Stumpy

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

Umm I did the math in my head and it seemed pretty close, then I factored in that I'm pretty sure this is air at least 20% of the time so it seemed like a pretty easy iso shove.

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

shove 100%

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

It's not just the math. It's the pusher's image. You're not going to have the time to do all the math with 15 seconds to act. However, givn the size of the pot and the fact that you only have to put 24K in, I gather that if you can put pusher on a smattering of overs aside from AQ/AK (like AJ/A10), then I can't imagine how pushing can be bad here.

It's nearly impossible to factor in how many times MP is going to call here, but I'm pretty sure you fold out 99/1010 and I don't think that players during this point of the tournament fail to repop with JJ+. Could be wrong, but I have to go with some kind of strong assumption here.

Barry

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

i shoved lost to ak.

Re: 2 tbles left 88 facing repop
 

[ QUOTE ]
i shoved lost to ak.

[/ QUOTE ]

Run Better.