Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

This is a pretty basic question.

Anyone can get lucky pick five out of five winners on any given week, but in the long run (years), how many people are actually seeing a profit by betting on sports?

The reason I ask is this:

I live in Vegas and I have a brother who lives back east. He likes betting football, but with all the problems of online sportsbetting, he's decided that it's easiest just to place his bets through me. He calls and ask me to place about 5 bets (average $100) a week for him.

I'm wondering if i'd be better off simply not placing his bets and taking the action myself. (Why does Ceasar's Palace deserse that vig more than me?) My brother seems to spend a fair amount of time reading up on the games online, but even so, I don't think he's too likely be able to beat Vegas.

Assuming I can stand about $5000 in variance, I'm probably better off taking the action myself, right? Not too many people are beating Vegas, right?

Subquestion: Assuming I will pay his winnings out of my own pocket, is it morally reprehensible to not let my brother know that I'm not placing his bets in a casino?

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

He is very likely -EV, because almost everyone is. The most likely problem you would have if he's smart is that you may end up offering stale lines.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty basic question.

Anyone can get lucky pick five out of five winners on any given week, but in the long run (years), how many people are actually seeing a profit by betting on sports?

The reason I ask is this:

I live in Vegas and I have a brother who lives back east. He likes betting football, but with all the problems of online sportsbetting, he's decided that it's easiest just to place his bets through me. He calls and ask me to place about 5 bets (average $100) a week for him.

I'm wondering if i'd be better off simply not placing his bets and taking the action myself. (Why does Ceasar's Palace deserse that vig more than me?) My brother seems to spend a fair amount of time reading up on the games online, but even so, I don't think he's too likely be able to beat Vegas.

Assuming I can stand about $5000 in variance, I'm probably better off taking the action myself, right? Not too many people are beating Vegas, right?

Subquestion: Assuming I will pay his winnings out of my own pocket, is it morally reprehensible to not let my brother know that I'm not placing his bets in a casino?

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Quote hime the lines from Pinny, add 5 cents of juice. He won't beat you. However this is illegal.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

I have been making a living off betting sports for 12 years so yes people do win consistently

I personally wouldn't do this. The guy doesn't sound like a serious better based on your post but the upside of this is pretty low and not worth the risk.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

I'd do it.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

I would do this for a friend who I KNEW would pay all losses.

For my brother, I would AT LEAST give him reduced juice, so I wouldn't crush him.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Wow, some brother you are.

And I would say 5% over the long haul.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

just hold that action yourself. you save a trip to the casino and make money. maybe buy him a nicer christmas gift on him this year.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

would your brother know that you are doing this?

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

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Subquestion: Assuming I will pay his winnings out of my own pocket, is it morally reprehensible to not let my brother know that I'm not placing his bets in a casino?

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Yep. He's your brother; I have no idea what being your brother's bookie might do to that relationship. If you want to do this, he has to agree to it.

That said, not a bad idea if he's up for it and you're both totally reliable with money.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Are the 5 bets a week strictly NFL or is that NCAA and NFL?

How many weeks does the brother bet Sunday and Monday night games?

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

does brother read this forum?

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

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Wow, some brother you are.

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OP is doing his brother a favor in the first place. Also, if the OP doesn't cheat, then from his brother's perspective it's exactly the same financially.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Financially yes but for what is realistically at best a $1500 gain over the whole season (assuming his brother hit at 45%) it is hardly worth the animosity this would cause the relationship.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

I'm kind of in the same position with my cousin, only he doesn't want to deposit anymore online. He bets only $25-$50 a game usually, sometimes more, and wanted me to place his action on a specific site that he used to gamble at.

As for booking the action yourself, I doubt you'll lose money. I asked my cousin if he was OK with me not placing some of his bets, and he said he didn't care. I just give him the line at the time he wants to bet it and decide whether I want to place it or book it. The relationship hasn't changed since we both trust each other.

I even try to give him some games that I like and tell him some bets I would never make, but he doesn't listen much. Oh well... what can ya do.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

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I'm wondering if i'd be better off simply not placing his bets and taking the action myself

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this is a no brainer, I know someone who did this for his friends

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

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Does your brother read this forum?

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I don't think so. If so, I'd probably have gotten a phone call already.

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Wow, some brother you are.

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OP is doing his brother a favor in the first place. Also, if the OP doesn't cheat, then from his brother's perspective it's exactly the same financially.

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This is exactly my point. It's not like I'm scamming him, so I don't really see any harm being done. If he were to find out and become angry:

1) He's not the type who wouldn't get over it. He's a year older than me so we have been arguing nonstop since we were kids. Arguments are no real big deal--that's what brothers do.

2) His anger would be unjustifed. I'm giving him the line that Caesar's Palace offers everytime. So if he were mad, I'd question why he's so intent on his vig going to Caesar's Palace rather than me. Is that a little selfish on his part?

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Sorry to be the morality police since most people here just care about grinding out a few dollars, but the implicit assumption behind question number 2 is that he is a losing bettor, in which case you are doing nothing more than enabling your brother's betting habit through illegal across-state-borders bookmaking.

Go for it man...I'm sure you will become fabulously wealthy with this plan.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Sure, you should come out ahead by booking the action yourself. It will be easier for you, since you won't have to make the trip to the sportsbook. Plus, there's no way your brother will find out, unless, of course, he asks for losing tickets to use to offset wins for tax purposes.



On the other hand, you do give up a chance to get some comps for his action. Don't get me wrong, I doubt $500 a week will get you anything, especially from a book like Caesars. However, if you always bet on the same day/time each week, you'd get the chance to talk up a suit. Once he gets to know you, you may be able to talk him into a few discrectionary food comps.

Those comps aren't worth much, but his action to you wouldn't be worth all that much either.

Assume his total action a season is $10,000. That means a 3% vig is worth $300 to you over the season.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

so, you're soaking your brother for 1500, instead of the books soaking him for 1500.

let me see. YOUR BROTHER. ask YOUR BROTHER if he would accept this situation. why the hell are you asking a bunch of guys (most of whom, it would appear by their answers, are in sad need of a little thing called "honor"), who wouldn't know you from adam, if it's kosher to soak YOUR BROTHER?

because you want to find your ethics in other people's mouths?

very american. maybe you should move to las vegas, there's lots of emotional and ethical tramps there that would welcome you with open arms--wait, you're already IN las vegas, that explains it.

tlt.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

i hope your brother wins.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

I don't see what everyone is freaking out about. It's not like you are guaranteed to make money off him. You are taking a risk by booking his bets so I don't see it as a problem. I place my dad's bets sometimes and if I was going the other way I'd likely book his bet myself. He wouldn't have a problem with that considering I'm honest about fading him when I do.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Seriously why is everyone acting like this is a big deal? Give your bro like 1 cent of reduced juice on all his plays, so that you're actually doing him a favor though.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

yeah, you got to tell him/ask him. "yo, bro, it is a bitch to run to the casino every week for you. Mind if I just take your action?"

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

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Seriously why is everyone acting like this is a big deal? Give your bro like 1 cent of reduced juice on all his plays, so that you're actually doing him a favor though.

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Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

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why the hell are you asking a bunch of guys (most of whom, it would appear by their answers, are in sad need of a little thing called "honor")

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Surprising words from someone named thelyingthief!



Anyway, I still don't see why the casino is more "entitled" to money than the OP. I agree it could put strain on the relationship. CSC's suggestion is a good one.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

It isn't a question of entitlement. If you look at it that way so long as the brother has the resources and willingness to pay should the bother win then entitlement isn't an issue.

The issue is what will this do to the relationship. By taking his bothers action OP has in essence set up his self-interest to be opposite his bother's self-interest. He would be hoping his bother loses. That obviously has no effect on the outcome but just knowing that your very own bother is cheering for you to lose is hurtful.

There is also the issue that if he is willing to take the action then he must have a pretty good reason to believe that his brother will lose. If it was a stranger then fine but as a family member he kind of has a fiduciary relation to say something to his brother at at least try to discourage him. If his brother is a losing player though by taking the action OP actually has a vested interest in encouraging more bets not less.

All of this to make $1500 over a season is just not worth it. If they were both professional gamblers then it would be different since they would view it more professionally and less emotionally but neither of them are professional.

If OP does this I'd love to come to Thanksgiving dinner. I can see how that will turn out.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Yes, I definately think my brother is a losing bettor. If he wasn't, I wouldn't consider taking the action. At the same time, it's not like he is gambling with money he can't lose. He has a decent job.

I see sports betting as a recreational hobby for him. It's a vice and in moderation, it's a pretty harmless vice.

Is betting sports a losing proposition for him? Yes, but then again, so is every table game in Vegas. Do all of you who disapprove of this yell at your family members everytime they go to a casino and play roulette or throw dice?

Look, I'm not trying to clean out my brother. I'm not urging him to up his bets and I'm not charging interst on an outstanding debt. And if it started to get out-of-hand, it would probably be better than I'm booking his action because I would be the first to know.

We've all seen the little pamplets that casinos give out about gambling problems, but do you really think they give a [censored]? In my mind, he's better off sending his money to someone who actually cares if he goes broke.

I just think some of you are looking at this the wrong way. I'm providing the exact same service as Caesar's Palace provides. Why do they deserve more compensation than I do?

Further, as I'm the only one here who knows my brother, I can pretty safely say that if he found out I wasn't placing his bets, he'd probably just call me a sneaky little pr!ck, and laugh it off. I'm not doing any long term damage here.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

What if he went on a hot run?

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Henry17, I think you make good points, and honestly a lot of it comes down to how much they can mentally separate the money from anything emotional. I used to make moderately frequent bets with certain friends of mine and win or lose it was never personal. That said, the bets were usually small, so it may have been easier because of that. I don't think it HAS to be a big deal--people make $100 bets with friends all the time and it doesn't ruin the friendship--but of course it might end up bigger than anticipated.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Bets between friends often are related to teams. For example I have friends who are Cowboy or Leaf fans who make fun bets vs other team supporters. That is different. This is someone trying to make money betting having his brother bet against his ability to do so.

The way I see it this is like making a prob bet that your brother will fail at something.

If the brother was up for a promotion / getting married / going to university and you could get action that he would fail at this (and had good reason to suspect he would) would it hurt his feelings if he found out you bet against him? I think for most people they would be very hurt.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

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If the brother was up for a promotion / getting married / going to university and you could get action that he would fail at this (and had good reason to suspect he would) would it hurt his feelings if he found out you bet against him? I think for most people they would be very hurt.

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I agree, but I don't think it's a fair comparison because you're talking about life achievement things where it's good to support someone. OP is talking about wagering on football teams, and I don't think it's nearly as insulting.

I do agree that BLINDLY taking all his action is different than betting each other on certain games where you just disagree strongly.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

Why would you have to hide this? He wants to bet on sporting events just tell him the deal that if you feel like fading his bets you might not place them. I think you may have honesty issues in your family or just need to be a little more straight up in general.

Re: Percentage of sports bettors who win
 

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Bets between friends often are related to teams. For example I have friends who are Cowboy or Leaf fans who make fun bets vs other team supporters. That is different. This is someone trying to make money betting having his brother bet against his ability to do so.

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Henry,

I think as someone who makes a living betting sports, your point of view is different than my brother's.

For recreational gamblers like him, he just likes to have some action on the game he's watching. Of course, he likes to win, but it's not going to affect his lifestyle if the Cowboys lose. It's entertainment.

It's a hobby for him and it cost him a little money. For you, it's a business. You don't do it for the excitement. You do it because you enjoy having an edge.

It's the difference between a card counter and someone who knows basic strategy in blackjack. It's the same game, but it's not the same league.

If he were to quit his job and decide that he wanted to bet sports full-time, then yes, I think it would be shameful for me to take all his actions. However, seeing how it's just a little hobby, at the absolute worst, I'm not doing much more than being a little sneaky.

I don't think there's anything wrong with what I'm doing, but you and some others make some good points and it probably wouldn't hurt if I slowly let him know that I don't place all of his bets. I'm considering it.

Even though I don't 100% agree with you, thanks for your input.