15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Razz ($15/$30), Ante $3, Bring-In $5 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___calls
Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (6.93 SB)

Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks

5th Street - (3.47 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (5.47 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

River - (7.47 BB)

Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises___calls

Total pot: (13.47 BB - $404)

So yea, have fun. Who is nitty and just calls the river?

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Why raise 3rd? River looks good.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Uh, it's 3-handed. Raising 3rd is a must

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Raising 3rd is super standard 3 handed in this spot, it's ok to call sometimes though. If I were to mix up my play just calling I would generally be doing that with 3 wheel cards as a 7 up is vulnerable.

Nobody yet hates the river?

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

What's to hate? On 6th he has a pair 70% of the time and 2 pair something like 20%. You have to hate the re-raise but he still might have the same 6 or a worse 6. I don't see him with a 7 here because he has to put you on 7432A at worst I think.

Now granted, he could have a pair on 6th and STILL have a wheel...

If raising the river is wrong, then calling 6th is probably wrong.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

It is impossible for him to have the same 6, either I'm beat or I'm not.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

To give a real answer I think an EV calculation is probably necessary. But any meaningful type of calculation here would use conditional probabilities, taking into account your cards and the cards gotten on 4-th to 6-th street. This is too messy.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

He can't have 46 among his 3 down cards? There's 1 three and 3 fours unaccounted for.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Oh, um, never mind. Yeah.

So I still think the raise is OK. And if it's not, calling 6th is not OK.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

I guess I should elaborate because I hate it when people don't, but I suspect you already know what I mean.

If you are calling 6th, you expect your current hand to be good often enough, or your improved hand to be good often enough, to call. You're getting 6.5:2 to call including the end, which he is going to bet almost all the time I think, a little better than 3:1.

You will improve to the nuts only 3 out of 41 times, and to a 6 only 4 out of 41 times. If you don't expect a 6 to be good, then you're calling for 3 outs. In either case, you have to expect your hand to be good *already* a certain amount of the time, something like 15% of the time. You can not call 6th otherwise.

If your hand is already good he's drawing to 6s and 4s. If he drew a 6, you're still ahead, if he drew a 4, well, oh well.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

I think that's a pretty good analysis Rusty!

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

The analysis does not at all motivate that we have to fold 6th if we can't raise the river.

As demonstrated by Rusty we need quite a small probability of being good in order to justify calling 6th. However, to raise the river we need a way bigger probability than 0.5 to be good, since we will get one extra bet when we are good but lose two bets when we are bad.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Do you stipulate that villain MUST have a wheel here based on 7th st action?

Edit: if not, then sometimes when we're ahead we make 3 bets. If so, then we must fold to re-raise.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

If he respects Razzy Sp00n he should realize that Hero has at least a 6-5. So reraising anything but a wheel is dumb.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

I love the check on 4th, by the way. I'm curious though, was villain:
1) expecting you to bet, and disguising his hand pretending to have paired?
2) expecting you to bet, so he could check-raise?
3) paired or crap in the hole

If it's 1) well that sucks, otherwise I think you've probably convinced him you have a 3-card hand on 4th. Unless he's relatively savvy, I have no idea who he is or what he thinks.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Villain has an automatic bet on 6th street, whether he has a 5 already made, a 6-5, or a 7-5. If he has a 7-5 on 6th street, he'd figure that he's ahead unless we have exactly A-2 in the hole. Also, he has very little to worry about getting raised -- even a 7-perfect is going to have a really tough time raising or betting into a 5-3-2-A board.

So Villain probably has at least one of 4, 6, or 7 in the hole. On 6th street we were behind two of those possibilities and ahead of the other, so easy odds to call. On 7th street we're behind only one of those possibilities, and ahead of the other two -- throw in the chance that he was betting air on 6th street, and then factor in the chance that he caught a 4 on the river, which probably roughly cancel each other out, and we're probably ahead about 2/3 of the time on the end. Normally, I'd say just call, but because our hand is well disguised, I think that he'll 3-bet a 6-5 often enough that raising is possibly the way to go.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Just looking at the action Street by Street --

Third is standard.

Fourth -- The interesting question here is whether you know your opponent well enough to figure his check for weakness. I very often would check 4 to a wheel there in the hopes that someone would play along for the entire hand. This is pretty read dependent and would affect how I played the rest of the hand. Lets assume for sake of argument, that we are fairly comfortable he is paired here. As the hand plays out, this is mathematically unlikely given that three 3s are out, but its not impossible.

On 5th you have to call if you believe he paired. You probalby have to call in any event because its a mandatory betting position for him.

Not much info to be had on 6th. Because of your showing pair, he again has a mandatory bet. But, that board is looking pretty damn deadly, and the odds that he paired a three earlier are looking pretty bad given that you now have three accounted for.

On Seventh, I dont HATE the raise. His hand demands a bet no matter what. Your raise has some chance of picking off a bluff. On balance, given the cards that are out, with no other read, however, yes I would call.

His reraise means you are almost certainly dead. I would be shocked to see him turn up a hand that couldnt beat a 7-6 at that point. If I had absolutely no read on him, I might call just to know for sure what kind of player I had. Against a solid player that you know however, that reraise probably means a fold.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

I would be shocked to see him turn up a hand that couldnt beat a 7-6 at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, but hero has the second nuts.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

I cap.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

I'd consider it. The best thing is, you can't get re-raised! (If you could, would you make it 4 bets?)

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

meh I just bet fourth and raise fifth and then it kinda plays itself.

but as played, I think river is thin but probably mandatory.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

I think capping 4th is stupid. When spoon raises the river into villain's board villain has to know spoon has a really strong hand. If I was villain I would only reraise with the wheel (villain can't have 6-4). Spoon, what are the results? Please pm if you don't want to post them

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
I cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

puke

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

If he didnt have a wheel he has a lot of balls reraising you on 7th. I dont see the argument for capping. I think the raise is probably fine. Call the reraise and see the cards.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Villain had the wheel.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

Well of course he did, what else could he possibly have. SHEESH [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

I like the check on 4th too.

I raise 5th and depending on the action give serious consideration to folding 6th.

I personally wouldn't raise the river.

Rough hand; very interesting.

-ChipsAhoya

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

The other guy's check on fourth is awfully suspicious. If it was suspicious on fourth, it's still suspicious on the river. In practice, I raise once on the river. Given a few minutes to think about it, I prefer the nitty path on the river.

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
The other guy's check on fourth is awfully suspicious. If it was suspicious on fourth, it's suspiciouser on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Say you're playing HE and a guy raises in EP, flop is Axx. You put him on an A but he checks. Suspicious. Turn, river is A,A. Do you still put him on an A?

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

That was my issue here. All those threes that came out, make it very likely statistically that he was slowplaying fourth. That makes the call on the river a bit stronger in my mind than trying to clip off a possible bluff on seventh with a raise, but hey, I may be a nit!

Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand
 

I would never think he's bluffing on the river. In fact, I would assume that if he could not have beaten 74 on the 6th, then he can on the river. But he may have improved to a 65 and think that he's sucked out on me. Or he may have mad a 65 on 6th.

Even if you know the 3 paired him, he can still have beaten you by 6th, and if not 6th, 7th.

I still gotta raise with the 2nd nuts.